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Published on 14/02/2018 11:22:25 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Rmseed trading range for the day is 4067-4197 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

Gold

Gold on MCX settled up 0.22% at 30218 as the U.S. dollar slipped and markets anticipated the release of impending U.S. inflation. Last week, the dollar was supported by increased safe haven demand from investors amid dramatic moves in the equities and bond markets. British inflation unexpectedly held close to its highest level in nearly six years in January, highlighting the challenge facing the Bank of England and reinforcing expectations of a rise in interest rates in May.

Economic growth in the U.S., Europe and Asia has stoked inflation fears in recent weeks, pushing up bond yields and undermining stock prices, and Wednesday's U.S. inflation data may help determine whether the correction in equities markets is over. Inflation is sometimes regarded as gold-positive, because bullion is seen as a safe haven when price pressures are rising, but expectations that the U.S.

Federal Reserve will lift interest rates to fight inflation make the non-yielding metal less attractive. U.S. inflation data for January is due on Wednesday and the U.S. Federal Reserve next meets on March 20-21. SPDR Gold Trust said its holdings rose 0.36 percent to 823.66 tonnes on Tuesday from 820.71 tonnes. Russia produced 306.9 tonnes of gold in 2017, up from 288.5 tonnes in 2016, the finance ministry said.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.44% to settled at 7397 while prices up 66 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 30130 and below same could see a test of 30042 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30278, a move above could see prices testing 30338.                  

Trading Ideas:   

* Gold trading range for the day is 30042-30338.

* Gold prices rose as the U.S. dollar slipped and markets anticipated the release of impending U.S. inflation.

* Last week, the dollar was supported by increased safe haven demand from investors amid dramatic moves in the equities and bond markets.

* Physical gold demand in Asia picked up towards the end of the week, as a pullback in prices spurred purchases ahead of the Lunar New Year in China and the wedding season in India.

Silver

Silver remained supported as caution ahead of this week's U.S. inflation data weighed on demand for the dollar. All eyes focused on US consumer price data ahead for fresh cues on the likely path of interest rate hikes by the Fed. Prices hovered above breakeven supported by ongoing dollar weakness ahead of an inflation report which could strengthen the Federal Reserve’s case for more aggressive monetary policy tightening.

The dollar fell for a second straight day in row pressured by large gains in both the euro and yen, helping prices remain steady a day ahead of an inflation report which could offer markets with fresh direction. Last week, the dollar was supported by increased safe haven demand from investors amid dramatic moves in the equities and bond markets.

British inflation unexpectedly held close to its highest level in nearly six years in January, highlighting the challenge facing the Bank of England and reinforcing expectations of a rise in interest rates in May. Economic growth in the U.S., Europe and Asia has stoked inflation fears in recent weeks, pushing up bond yields and undermining stock prices, and Wednesday's U.S. inflation data may help determine whether the correction in equities markets is over. 

Market turbulence has been triggered by speculation that Fed may raise interest rates at a faster rate than had been expected amid signs of a pickup in inflation. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.04% to settled at 18922 while prices down -23 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 38011 and below same could see a test of 37776 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38414, a move above could see prices testing 38582.        

Trading Ideas:   

* Silver trading range for the day is 37776-38582.

* Silver prices remained supported as caution ahead of this week's U.S. inflation data weighed on demand for the dollar.

* Market turbulence has been triggered by speculation that Fed may raise interest rates at a faster rate than had been expected amid signs of a pickup in inflation.

* Investors will be watching for U.S. consumer price data given it was fears of faster inflation, and thus more aggressive rate rises.

Crudeoil    

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -0.75% at 3813 while Nymex Crude oil prices stuck below $60 unable to recoup recent losses settled down by 0.2% at $59.19/bbl as surge in US shale oil production as the cause of oil's retreat from 4-year highs above $66. Sentiments remain weak as the dollar index plumbed one-week lows, following earlier data from the US, the world's largest energy consumer, and after a string of statements by OPEC Secretary General Muhammad Barkindo and other OPEC oil ministers.

The IEA raised oil demand growth projections to 1.4mbpd in 2018 from 1.3mbls, expecting however increased supplies from outside OPEC, especially the US. The IEA expects global supplies to settle at 59.9mbpd in 2018, up from 58.2 million in 2017, with US output expected to pass Saudi Arabia to become the world's second largest producer after Russia.

Also Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said that global supplies are on a downward path despite US increases, noting that he expects prices to average $60 in 2018. UAE minister of energy Suhail Al Mazroui said in earlier remarks that the oil market is on route for balance this year, while expecting US shale output to rise by a faster pace than 2017, noting that these increases won't cause big imbalances in the global market nonetheless.

Pressure also seen as Baker Hughes reported a rise of 26 rigs in the US oil rig count last Friday, the third weekly increase in a row and the largest since January 2017. Technically market is getting support at 3767 and below same could see a test of 3720 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3847, a move above could see prices testing 3880.     

Trading Ideas:   

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3720-3880.

* Crude oil dropped after the IEA’s gloomy monthly report stoked investor fears that rising US oil output would derail OPEC’s efforts to rebalance the market.

* Non-OPEC production, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand in 2018, according to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

* Looming over oil markets, however, was rising production in the US which is undermining efforts led by OPEC and Russia to tighten markets and prop up prices.

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled up 2.11% at 169 gained on short covering support will be seen as a start very cold across the northern US where lows will again be in the -10s to 20s, while also chilly down the Plains into portions of the South.  However, mild high pressure will gain ground over the South and East late today through Thursday with highs warming into the 50s to 70s. 

Another weather system will exit out of the central US and across the Midwest and Northeast Fri-Sat for a swing back to strong demand.  The West will see a mix of mild and cool as weather systems track through.  The South & East will become warm late this weekend and next week. Demand this week will swing between MODERATE and HIGH several times into this weekend.

Now market experts warned that futures are likely to remain vulnerable in the near-term as the coldest part of the winter has effectively passed and below-normal temperatures in April mean less than they do in January and February. While Spring usually sees the weakest demand for natural gas in the U.S, as the absence of extreme temperatures curbs demand for heating and air conditioning.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Now market participants looked ahead to this week's storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a draw in a range between 173 and 187bcf in the week ended Feb. 9. Technically market is under short covering and getting support at 167.6 and below same could see a test of 166.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 170.5, a move above could see prices testing 171.9.   

Trading Ideas:   

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 166.1-171.9.

* Natural gas prices rose supported by weather models hinting that more cold could push into the East later this month.

* NatGasWeather.com described gains as “a technical bounce aided by overnight weather models trending slightly colder.

* Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.078 trillion cubic feet (tcf), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Copper 

Copper on MCX settled up 2.44% at 449.35 gained on short-covering tracking a strong jump in London the previous day, as traders took up new positions in the metal before the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) closes for a week-long holiday. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will close for a week over China's Lunar New Year holiday

The exchange closes from the evening trading session on Wednesday, Feb. 14 and will reopen as usual on Thursday, Feb. 22. Market open interest on Shanghai copper hit 811,170 lots on Tuesday, the highest since January 2016, ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in China beginning on Thursday. yesterday Copper on the London Metal Exchange climbed 0.2 percent to $6,998.50, having briefly broken above the barrier of $7,000 a tonne.

In data on Monday, Chinese new loans surged to a record 2.9 trillion yuan ($450.9 billion) in January – nearly five times the previous month. Meanwhile, the country’s M2 money supply also surprised to the upside with a reading of 8.6%, against an expected print of 8.2%. A 4 percent drop in Chinese shares dealt reeling world markets a fresh blow, as worries over rising borrowing costs and soaring volatility put them on course for their worst week since the height of euro zone crisis.

China's unwrought copper imports fell for a second straight month in January as winter restrictions on the construction sector and high domestic production rates continued to crimp demand for metal from overseas. Last month's imports of unwrought copper, which includes anode, refined, and semi-finished copper products, stood at 440,000 tonnes, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Technically now Copper is getting support at 443.6 and below same could see a test of 437.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 452.6, a move above could see prices testing 455.8.          

Trading Ideas:   

* Copper trading range for the day is 437.8-455.8.

* Copper climbed as the dollar dropped, although traders remained cautious about demand after the Lunar New Year holiday that starts this week.

* Traders noted that the import window for copper into China is open, potentially supporting prices.

* One saw limited inflows given traders will not want to risk holding stock over the Lunar New Year holidays which start Feb. 15.

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 2.33% at 223.70 on fresh buying tracking LME Zinc which climbed 1.9 percent on indications of a tight market. Zinc prices surged to the highest since 2007 on January 29th 2018 as falling stockpiles suggested tight supplies, drives zinc prices to new highs. Shortages of refined metal have seen stocks in LME approved warehouses fall to their lowest since 2008 at 176,275 tonnes.

Support also seen as worries that the Chinese market remains in surplus despite capacity cuts. Preliminary data recently compiled by the ILZSG, the global market for refined zinc metal was in deficit by 401 kilo tonne over the first ten months of 2017 with total reported inventories declining by 282 kilo tonne over the same period. World zinc mine production rose by 3.8% mainly as a result of increases in Eritrea, India, Peru and Turkey that more than balanced falls in Australia and the United States.

Now Markets await US inflation data later this week, specifically consumer and producer prices in addition to retail sales, industrial, housing, and consumer confidence data. As chances of a Fed rate hike next month increase, metal prices were pushed to month lows last week, as the dollar index also rose to two-week highs on surging US treasury bond yields, however the metal was propped up by heavy losses sustained by the stock market.

Now technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.64% to settled at 9398 while prices up 5.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 221.1 and below same could see a test of 218.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 225.3, a move above could see prices testing 226.9.          

Trading Ideas:   

* Zinc trading range for the day is 218.5-226.9.

* Zinc prices gained boosted by worries about tighter supplies

* Smelters expected to reduce zinc processing fees amid mine supply shortage

* Zinc mine supply is forecast to grow by 664,000 tonnes this year, following an estimated increase of 785,000 tonnes in 2017.

Nickel 

Nickel on MCX settled up 2.46% at 861.9 helped by a weaker dollar tracking a broad recovery in global equities. China's top steelmaking city of Tangshan said it would extend restrictions on production beyond the end of the winter heating season on March 15. Indonesia shipped 22 vessels, or 1.25 million wmt, of nickel ore to China in January, according to data.

China produced 10,200 mt of refined nickel in January, down 15.8% from the same month last year, data showed. This was mostly due to output cut and some production shift to nickel sulfate.  The volume was also down 32.5% from levels registered in December 2017, as consumption entered off-peak season when Chinese New Year was around the corner. In addition, the fire incident at Jinchuan Group also contributed to the output drop. 

Nickel ore exports from the Philippines are expected to stand at 830,000 wmt in January, according to data. This translated to 7,100 mt in metal content, down 66% from levels seen in December. China’s nickel pig iron (NPI) production in January stood at 36,900 mt, down 8.6% month on month but up 7.6% from January 2017, data showed.

The drop from December was mostly due to maintenance work at major ageing NPI plants and cold weather in the north. In addition, some integrated stainless steel mills have cut their production on poor stainless steel sales. Shanghai Futures Exchange said it will quintuple the intraday transaction fee on its nickel futures contract for May delivery.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.51% to settled at 6635, now Nickel is getting support at 849.6 and below same could see a test of 837.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 872.1, a move above could see prices testing 882.3.  

Trading Ideas:   

* Nickel trading range for the day is 837.3-882.3.

*  Nickel prices rallied helped by a weaker dollar tracking a broad recovery in global equities.

* Shanghai Futures Exchange said it will quintuple the intraday transaction fee on its nickel futures contract for May delivery.

* China's top steelmaking city of Tangshan said it would extend restrictions on production beyond the end of the winter heating season on March 15.

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.33% at 137.40 on fresh buying tracking gains from other basemetals while Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have retreated from morning highs after a significant delivery into LME-listed warehouses in Asia caused on-warrant stock to surge by 18%.

The three-month price was trading at a high of $2,151 per tonne – a $27 per tonne increase compared to Monday’s close price – before warehouse stock data was released. Some 166225 tonnes were delivered in this morning, 99% of which entered Port Klang. This follows 22,175 tonnes on Monday and 41,650 tonnes on Friday February 9. The three-month price is now up just $9 compared to yesterday’s close price.

The aluminium price will continue retreat over the next few hours as people take a step back after the stock data. No doubt this has to weaken prices,” as per market player. The increase in the aluminium deliveries in Asia is because of the backwardation, which has resulted in pressure to liquidate.

With the LME and SHFE aluminium stocks both increasing, there could be pressure on aluminium after Chinese New Year holidays. Also Most of the complex was trading in positive territory this morning, other than lead, with the softer dollar underpinning prices.

Now technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.11% to settled at 3085 while prices up 0.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 136.7 and below same could see a test of 136 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 137.9, a move above could see prices testing 138.4.          

Trading Ideas:   

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 136-138.4.

* Aluminium prices gained as traders were looking to cover their positions before the Lunar New Year holiday.

* China’s social inventory of refined aluminium hit a record high of 1.81 million mt as of February 12, according to data.

* China produced 5.71 million mt of alumina in January, up 2.3% from January 2017, data showed.

Mentha oil    

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 0.03% at 1437 tracking an uptick in demand from domestic physical market. Further, a fall in supply from Chandausi also fuelled the uptrend. Stock positions of mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 3329 drums which is 228 drums less in comparison to previous day. As per the sources domestic demand has slightly improved from the major domestic consuming industries.

However, there is no positive development from the export front. Also as winter is about to end soon, thus the seasonal demand for mentha will also decline gradually. According to the information received from traders, there is currently not much demand for mentha from the domestic consuming industries as well as stockists. From export front, there is no expectation of any positive development in the recent times.

Due to the increased production and usage of synthetic mentha in the recent years, demand for natural mentha has decreased. As per the reports the global demand of essential oil will increase in the coming years. This will boost mentha oil demand, mainly from medicines, health products, cosmetics as well as food and beverages. 

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1674.40 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.1.10/-.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.41% to settled at 954 while prices up 0.5 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1406.4 and below same could see a test of 1375.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1461.4, a move above could see prices testing 1485.7.          

Trading Ideas:   

* Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1375.7-1485.7.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1674.40 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.1.10/-.

* Mentha oil prices ended with gains tracking an uptick in demand from domestic physical market.

* Stock positions of mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 3329 drums which is 228 drums less in comparison to previous day.

* In recent years the production and consumption of synthetic mentha has increased which has impacted the demand of natural mentha.

Soyabean     

Soyabean on NCDEX settled up by 1.11% at 3832 on supply worries amid expectation of hoarding by stockiest to sell at higher prices. Prices are expected to remain up on lower availability of crops due to hoarding and higher demand from crushers. Soybean daily arrivals in local mandis across the country averaged at 125,000-130,000 bag (per bag of 100 kg) during past five trading days. Arrivals are expected to be around 70,000-80,000 bags.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imports of soybean increased by 10.7 per cent to 8.48 MMT in January 2018 compared to same period previous year and it declined by 11.20 per cent compared to December 2017. The United States department of agriculture (USDA) maintained 2017-18 US soybean production while hiked forecast for ending stockpiles for February, the department said in its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The USDA expects soybean output in US, the world's biggest bean grower, at 119.52 million tons in February, unchanged from previous month and higher to 116.92 million tons in February 2017. It is also higher than 8.21 million tons estimated in the same period a year ago.

Soybean production forecast for Brazil, the world's second biggest soybean producer, also hiked at 112 million tons in February compared to 110 million tons in January while lower than 114.10 million tons in February 2016-17, the USDA said. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  131 Rupees to 3931 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Technically now Soyabean is getting support at 3796 and below same could see a test of 3759 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3892, a move above could see prices testing 3951.         

Trading Ideas:   

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 3759-3951.

* Soyabean prices gained on supply worries amid expectation of hoarding by stockiest to sell at higher prices.

* China’s imports of soybean increased by 10.7 per cent to 8.48 MMT in January 2018 compared to same period previous year.

* The USDA expects soybean output in US, at 119.52 million tons in February, unchanged from previous month and higher to 116.92 million tons in February 2017.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  131 Rupees to 3931 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 Ref.Soyaoil      

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled up by 0.1% at 744.9 tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices amid supply worried. Prices remained supported by lower stockpiles forecast by United States Department of Agriculture estimated further decline in the ending stock of World soy oil. USDA in its WASDE report trimmed world soyoil output forecast to 55.93 million tons for February compared to 56.15 estimated in January.

World soyoil ending stockpiles also estimated to dropped to 3.07 million tons compared to 3.13 million tons, said USDA. Demand for soyoil in domestic market is sluggish due to availability of substitute oils at cheap rate. As per the latest data compiled by Solvent Extractors Association of India, the import of vegetable oils during December 2017 is reported at 1,088,783 tons compared to 1,209,685 tons in December 2016, consisting 1,058,289 tons of edible oils and 30,494 tons of non-edible oils i.e. down by 10%.

The overall import of vegetable oils during November to December 2017 is reported at 2,337,593 tons compared to 2,385,149 tons i.e. down by 2%.India Apr-Jan soybean meal exports spurted 68.63% to 1.01 million tons compared to 601,270 tons in the same period a year ago. Government raised the import duty on edible oils by 12.5 to 15% across the board and increased MEIS on soymeal to 7% from 5%.

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 736.45 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.56% to settled at 31250 while prices up 0.75 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 743 and below same could see a test of 741 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 748, a move above could see prices testing 751.             

Trading Ideas:   

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 741-751.

* Ref soyoil ended with gains tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices amid supply worried.

* India's edible oil imports in January are likely to have risen 24% on year to 1.25 mln tn.

* India Apr-Jan soybean meal exports spurted 68.63% to 1.01 million tons compared to 601,270 tons in the same period a year ago.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 736.45 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 Crude palm Oil  

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -0.48% at 576 tracking weakness in demand from the physical markets. Crude palm oil output in Malaysia, the world's second biggest CPO producer, dropped by 13.49% compared to previous month while exports climbed by 6%, data released by Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed.

Palm oil output in January fell to 1.58 million tons compared to 1.83 million tons in December. Closing stockpiles of CPO in January dropped by 6.75% to 2.54 million tons compared to 2.73 million tons in previous month, data showed. However, exports of palm oil climbed by 6.01% to 1.51 million tons compared to 1.42 million tons previous month, data showed.

According to Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysia’s January palm oil stocks fell 6.75 percent to 25.48 lakh tons compared to 27.32 lakh tons in December. Production of palm oil in January fell 13.49 percent to 15.87 lakh tons compared to 18.34 lakh tons in December. Exports of palm oil in January rose 6.01 percent to 15.13 lakh tons compared to 14.27 lakh tons in December.

Imports of palm oil in January rose 132 percent to 0.35 lakh tons compared to 0.14 lakh tons in December. Fall in palm oil end stocks in January was below trade estimates. According to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services (ITS), Malaysia’s February 1-10 palm oil exports rose 14.7 percent to 412,207 tons compared to 359,346 tons in corresponding period last month.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.41% to settled at 6543 while prices down -2.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 574.9 and below same could see a test of 573.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 577.5, a move above could see prices testing 579.1.               

Trading Ideas:   

* CPO trading range for the day is 573.9-579.1.

* Crude palm oil ended with losses tracking weakness in demand from the physical markets.

* Crude palm oil output in Malaysia, dropped by 13.49% compared to previous month.

* Malaysia’s January palm oil stocks fell 6.75 percent to 25.48 lakh tons compared to 27.32 lakh tons in December.

                Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 6.40 rupees and settled at 576.40 rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -0.12% at 4118 tracking weakness in spot demand despite of higher soybean prices amid lower acreages. India 2017-18 mustard seed acreages slumped to 6.68 million hectare compared to 7.06 million hectare in the same period a year ago, data showed. Crushing of mustard during January month slipped 23.52% compared to previous month on disparity.

Mustard seed crushing dropped to 325,000 tons in January compared to 425,000 tons in December month. From Feb 15 till Dec 31 processors have crushed 6 million tons mustard. Mills reduced crushing in January after arrivals in the key markets declined due to the lean season, an official with the association said.

A crucial rabi oilseed crop, mustard is sown during Sep-Oct and harvested from late January. Supply of the new mustard crop began in February and gathered pace in March. Arrivals were in full swing until May, but began shrinking June onwards, heralding the lean period. Since February, oil mills have crushed about 6.0 mln tn mustard seed against the total supply of 6.2 mln tn, the official said.

Production of mustard in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) was estimated at 6.7 mln tn, higher than 5.8 mln tn in the previous year, owing to improved yields and conducive weather, according to the revised estimated of Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 51.5 Rupees to end at 4025 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.1% to settled at 28750 while prices down -5 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 4092 and below same could see a test of 4067 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4157, a move above could see prices testing 4197.      

Trading Ideas:   

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 4067-4197.

* Mustard seed prices ended with losses tracking weakness in spot demand despite of higher soybean prices amid lower acreages.

* India 2017-18 mustard seed acreages slumped to 6.68 million hectare compared to 7.06 million hectare in the same period a year ago.

* Crushing of mustard during January month slipped 23.52% compared to previous month on disparity.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 51.5 Rupees to end at 4025 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric   

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.16% at 7266 dropped on late profit booking after prices gained on anticipations about up country and export demands for new season crop. Arrivals from the new turmeric crop have started in the markets of Nizamabad in Telangana and Erode in Tamil Nadu.

Though arrivals of the short-duration turmeric crop started in Nizamabad market in late December, arrivals of the widely cultivated nine-month crop started in the market in the last two-three days. About 5,770 bags of the new turmeric crop hit the Nizamabad market, with total arrivals at around 6,700 bags. Due to cold weather, moisture content is high at 5-19% in new arrivals.

The ideal moister content should be around 7%. Of the 2,500 bags of turmeric that arrived in the Erode market today, new arrivals accounted for 400-500 bags. Arrivals of the new crop are likely to rise in the second week of February and could touch 8,000-10,000 bags per week at that time. The supply in Erode is, however, likely to be less than last year, with the local demand expected to be met by purchases from Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.

Spot prices of turmeric increased at the Erode markets along with arrivals. Around 6,500 bags of turmeric arrived for sale including 1,000 bags of new turmeric. The buyers purchased 60 per cent of the old turmeric. Regarding the price, the (new) finger variety was up Rs. 250 a quintal and the (new) root variety by Rs. 50. 

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7200 Rupees remains unchanged at0 Rupees.Technically now Turmeric is getting support at 7194 and below same could see a test of 7122 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7368, a move above could see prices testing 7470.           

Trading Ideas:   

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7122-7470.

* Turmeric dropped on late profit booking after prices gained on anticipations about up country and export demands for new season crop.

* Arrivals from the new turmeric crop have started in the markets of Nizamabad in Telangana and Erode in Tamil Nadu.

* About 5,770 bags of the new turmeric crop hit the Nizamabad market, with total arrivals at around 6,700 bags.

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7200 Rupees remains unchanged at0 Rupees.

Jeera   

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -1.98% at 16095 driven by dip in demand at spot domestic and overseas market. Moreover, liberal supply of cumin’s from growing belts amid piling of stocks have aggravated the dip in prices. As per sowing report, current year Jeera sowing area reported increased in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to higher prices throughout the year.

Expected sowing area to go up by 15-25% in Rajasthan and Gujarat, in the current year. As per production estimate Jeera production for 2018-19 is estimated at 379,500 MT compared to previous year’s 314,050 MT. New crop of jeera has started trickling in the benchmark market of Unjha in Gujarat from last week. 100-150 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) of the new crop arrived in the market and was sold at 20,200-20,500 rupees per 100 kg. The old crop is available at 20,700 rupees.

Demand for new crop is currently weak as it contains moisture of 11.0-11.5% due to the cold weather. The new crop arrivals are from Saurashtra, and the Gondal region in Gujarat. Arrivals of jeera are likely to gather pace by the end of February, the peak arrival season, after which daily average supply will be likely at 25,000-30,000 bags.

In March, when arrivals peak, prices of jeera are likely to decline to 17,000-18,000 rupees per 100 kg. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -159.8 Rupees to end at 19266.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.53% to settled at 10575 while prices down -325 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 15925 and below same could see a test of 15760 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 16425, a move above could see prices testing 16760.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Jeera trading range for the day is 15760-16760.

* Jeera prices ended with losses driven by dip in demand at spot domestic and overseas market.

* Moreover, liberal supply of cumin’s from growing belts amid piling of stocks have aggravated the dip in prices.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 394 tonnes to 8504 tonnes.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -159.8 Rupees to end at 19266.65 Rupees per 100 kg.      

Cardamom            

Cardamom on MCX settled up by 0.91% at 1160 amid falling supplies due to fag-end of the season. Persistent demand from exporters due to poor availability of quality cardamom from Guatemala may support the prices. New crop supplies of cardamom may start only in June this year while weak rains in January may impact yield and this may support prices in the future trade.

Poor stocks in upcountry centres and uncertainty about the crop in Guatemala also supporting prices. Strong buying activities in the spot markets on anticipation of good domestic as well as export demand also supporting prices. Supplies are expected to decline in the coming days as last round of harvesting is almost over and new crop will come in June.

Further, Guatemala crop is reported to be lower in the current year that is good for Indian cardamom exports.  As of now, fourth picking is going on and no more picking is expected due to unfavourable weather. India exported 2,230 ton cardamom during Apr-Sept 2017-18 up from 1,624 ton a year ago- showing a significant increase of 37%.Value wise export recorded a growth of 79% due to higher per kg realization.

Spices Board will resume the e-auction of small cardamom at the Spices Park in Puttady in Idukki in February after much-needed maintenance operations and technical upgrades are completed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 358 while prices up 10.5 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1150.6 and below same could see a test of 1141.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1164.6, a move above could see prices testing 1169.3.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Cardamom trading range for the day is 1141.3-1169.3.

* Cardamom prices ended with gains amid falling supplies due to fag-end of the season.

* Persistent demand from exporters due to poor availability of quality cardamom from Guatemala may support the prices.

* New crop supplies of cardamom may start only in June this year while weak rains in January may impact yield.

* Cardamom prices in spot market gained by 1.00 rupees and settled at 1113.90 rupees. 

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled down by -0.25% at 19910 due to easing demand from traders and stockists at the spot market.  Higher global output estimates and slack domestic as well as global demand together contributed to fall in cotton prices. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) hiked global cotton production forecast for 2017-18 to 121.37 million bales from previous month's estimate of 120.97 million bales.

It also increased ending global cotton inventories to 88.55 million bales from its January projection of 87.79 million bales. The department increased China's cotton output forecast to 27.50 million bales from previous month's estimate of 26.40 million bales. USDA also trimmed India's domestic consumption to 24.50 million bales in its February report compared to 24.75 million bales estimated earlier in January.

It also cut global consumption to 120.50 million bales from 120.83 million bales estimated earlier. India exported 675,797 tons of cotton yarn in Apr-Nov, down 3% on year, showed government data. India's cotton export may fall up to 5 million bales in 2017-18 owing to lack of premium quality of cotton. However, sharp fall in prices is likely to be cushioned by lower arrivals at key growing regions and significant fall in cotton production in Telangana and Maharashtra resulted with pink bollworm pest attack.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.31% to settled at 8143 while prices down -50 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 19870 and below same could see a test of 19830 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 19960, a move above could see prices testing 20010. 

Trading Ideas:   

* Cotton trading range for the day is 19830-20010.

* Cotton prices dropped due to easing demand from traders and stockists at the spot market. 

* Higher global output estimates and slack domestic as well as global demand together contributed to fall in cotton prices.

* USDA hiked global cotton production forecast for 2017-18 to 121.37 million bales from previous month's estimate of 120.97 million bales.

* Cotton prices in spot market dropped by 30.00 rupees and settled at 19460.00 rupees. 

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