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Published on 14/06/2018 12:11:14 PM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Rmseed trading range for the day is 3900-4020 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

Gold

Gold prices remained steady as investors waited for clues on the pace of future interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve when its policy meeting. The Federal Reserve forecast two more U.S. rate increases this year after raising rates, although lingering worries over trade tensions between Washington and Beijing prevented steeper losses. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, a move that was widely expected but still marked a milestone in the U.S. central bank's shift from policies used to battle the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.

The central bank saw two more rate hikes in 2018 for a total of four and three increases in 2019. U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in May, leading to the biggest annual gain in nearly 6-1/2 years, the latest sign of a gradual building up of inflation pressures. U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with his top trade advisers on Thursday to decide whether to activate threatened tariffs on billions of dollars in Chinese goods, a senior Trump administration official said.

Trump said that North Korea no longer poses a nuclear threat and his top diplomat offered a hopeful timeline for a "major disarmament," despite skepticism at home that Pyongyang will abandon its nuclear weapons following this week's summit. The European Central Bank will debate whether to end its huge asset purchases by year-end, in what would be its biggest step towards dismantling crisis-era stimulus credited with pulling the euro zone economy out of recession.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.92% to settled at 6015, now Gold is getting support at 31105 and below same could see a test of 31066 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 31185, a move above could see prices testing 31226.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 31066-31226.

* Gold prices remained steady as investors waited for clues on the pace of future interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve when its policy meeting.

* The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, a move that was widely expected.

* The central bank saw two more rate hikes in 2018 for a total of four and three increases in 2019.

Silver

Silver on MCX settled up 0.18% at 40766 on dollar weakness but gains were limited ahead of a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve and on clues of future interest rate hikes this year. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, a move that was widely expected but still marked a milestone in the U.S. central bank's shift from policies used to battle the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession. The central bank saw two more rate hikes in 2018 for a total of four and three increases in 2019. The move higher in the prices emerged as better-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation data failed to attract a bid in the greenback, which languished near session lows, increasing demand for prices.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand increased 0.5% last month, topping expectations for a 0.3% rise. In the 12 months through May, the PPI rose 3.1.% after rising 2.6% in April. Against the backdrop of strong U.S. economic growth, spurring expectations for a faster pace of U.S. monetary policy tightening, safe-haven assets such as gold and, to a lesser extent silver, are losing their attractiveness.

The European Central Bank will debate on Thursday whether to end its huge asset purchases by year-end, in what would be its biggest step towards dismantling crisis-era stimulus credited with pulling the euro zone economy out of recession. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.24% to settled at 14109 while prices up 75 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 40584 and below same could see a test of 40403 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 40935, a move above could see prices testing 41105.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 40403-41105.

* Silver prices inched higher on dollar weakness but gains were limited ahead of a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve and on clues of future interest rate hikes this year.

* U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in May, leading to the biggest annual gain in nearly 6-1/2 years, the latest sign of a gradual building up of inflation pressures.

* Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.44% i.e. 43.91 tonnes to 9824.92 tonnes from 9868.83 tonnes.

Crudeoil

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 0.63% at 4506 climbed after a U.S. government report revealed a bigger-than-expected decline in domestic crude supplies, which was the largest one-week drop since the end of March. Crude oil price gains for oil, however, were limited as the EIA report Wednesday also showed a sizable weekly climb in total U.S. crude production and recent data offered evidence of a pickup in output from the OPEC. The US EIA reported Wednesday that crude supplies fell by 4.1mbls for the week ended June 8.

That was the biggest one-week drop since the 4.6mbl decline reported for the week ending March 30. The IEA also cautioned that oil production from regions outside of the remit of OPEC, notably in the U.S., was set to increase. However, the organization said it expected projections for non-OPEC output to slow slightly next year to 1.7mbpd, compared with expectations for 2mbpd this year. The report comes after a separate monthly report from OPEC Tuesday that showed member increased by 35,000 barrels a day in May, month-on-month, to average 31.87mbpd.

A gathering of OPEC members is set for June 22. The meeting could determine the outlook for production curbs. Apart from the inventory data, oil traders continued to weigh potential outcomes for a meeting of major oil producers later this month. The OPEC is due to meet at its headquarters in Vienna, together with non-OPEC member Russia, on June 22 to discuss production policy. OPEC and non-OPEC producers have been curbing output by about 1.8mbpd to prop up oil prices and reduce high global oil stocks.

Technically market is getting support at 4468 and below same could see a test of 4429 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4532, a move above could see prices testing 4557.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4429-4557.

* Crude oil prices settled higher as data showed a massive draw in U.S. crude supplies despite an ongoing expansion in output.

* Inventories of U.S. crude fell by 4.143 million barrels for the week ended June 8, well above expectations for a draw of 1.440 million barrels.

* The API reported that crude oil inventories jumped 830,000 barrels last week to 433.7 million, as U.S. crude production surged 28% in the last two years.

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled up 0.76% at 200 gained on fresh buying despite warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States for the next 8-14 days which foreshadows the need for additional cooling demand which could increase natural gas demand. A hot upper ridge will dominate the central and southern US this week with highs of upper 80s to 100s for strong demand.

The northern US will see numerous weather systems track across with showers and slightly cool versus normal conditions with highs mainly in the 60s to 80s for light heating and cooling demand. A warm break will spread across the northern and eastern US this weekend into next week for stronger demand. The West will be heating up this week with highs mainly in the 80s to 100s, then cooling this weekend.

Demand remains strong. Total products demand over the last month averaged more than 20.4 million barrels per day, up by 1.7% from the same period last year. Over the past month, gasoline demand averaged about 9.6 million barrels per day, up by 0.3% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand averaged 4.0 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 0.5% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to this week's storage data due on Thursday.

Now technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.51% to settled at 4087 while prices up 1.5 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 197.9 and below same could see a test of 195.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 201.8, a move above could see prices testing 203.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 195.8-203.6.

* Natural gas gained concerns storage builds will not be high enough to return stockpiles to near normal levels before next winter despite record-high production.

* Prices increased despite forecasts for weaker demand next week than previously expected.

* Meteorologists have predicted temperatures would remain at above normal levels through at least the end of June.

Copper

Copper on MCX settled flat at 485.05 while LME Copper prices hit one-week lows as worries about demand in top consumer China undermined sentiment before a lower dollar and labour negotiations at the Escondida mine in Chile helped prices to recover after the U.S. open. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange ended 0.5 percent up at $7,256 a tonne, its highest since June 6, having earlier touched $7,169.

London copper edged down trading near a one-week low, ahead of a slew of Chinese data including industrial output that should provide more clues on the pace of growth in the world's No. 2 economy and top copper user. Meanwhile Global miner BHP said it had responded to the latest contract proposal from unionised workers at its Escondida mine, the world’s largest, triggering a new round of talks that could last a month or more.

The union’s proposal, filed with the company in early June, included a salary increase of 5 percent and a one-off bonus of $34,000, equivalent to 4 percent of dividends distributed to shareholders. Most base metals rose overnight. LME and SHFE nickel led the increases with a gain of over 2%. LME copper touched a low in one week on worries over demand. LME aluminium and tin weakened. SHFE tin dropped over 1% and aluminium dipped.

Now trader are eyeing for key factors to watch today include China’s economic data in May, European Central Bank meeting, US import price index and retail sales growth in May, and US initial jobless claims over the week ended June 9. Technically now Copper is getting support at 482 and below same could see a test of 478.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 487.7, a move above could see prices testing 490.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 478.9-490.3.

* Copper settled flat as worries about demand in China undermined sentiment before a lower dollar helped prices to recover.

* China's total social financing, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, dropped sharply to 760.8 billion yuan in May from 1.56 trillion yuan in April.

* Global copper concentrate output to grow at a slower pace and unable to meet the demand from additional smelting capacities.

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 0.53% at 218.60 gained on fresh buying tracking firmness from LME Zinc which gained 0.5 percent to settled at $3,216 as support seen on dollar weakness. While LME zinc failed to break the $3,220/mt level overnight. We see limited upward momentum given the strong resistance and the US interest rate hikes, however, we also see support at the five-day moving average. LME zinc is likely to consolidate at $3,150-3,225/mt today.

Last night US dollar index hit a high of 94.05 overnight following the Federal Reserve Board’s decision to hike interest rate for the second time this year and indication that two more increases are likely in 2018. The index, however, lost some gains later. This move pushed the funds rate target to 1.75-2%, meeting market expectations. Most base metals rose overnight. LME and SHFE nickel led the increases with a gain of over 2%.

LME copper touched a low in one week on worries over demand. LME aluminium and tin weakened. SHFE tin dropped over 1% and aluminium dipped. US PPI rose 0.5% from a month ago in May, more than the expected 0.3%, boosted by a surge in gasoline prices and continued gains in the cost of services. The PPI edged up 0.1% on the month in April. The upward trend in producer prices strengthens expectations that inflation will pick up this year.

While key factors to watch today include China’s economic data in May, ECB meeting, US import price index and retail sales growth in May, and US initial jobless claims over the week ended June 9. Technically now Zinc is getting support at 216.9 and below same could see a test of 215.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.8, a move above could see prices testing 220.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 215.1-220.9.

* Zinc prices gained tracking rise in LME prices as the US dollar came off.

* The output of refined zinc to increase in June, up by 4.07% from May to 440,300 tons, as some smelters have completed their maintenance checks.

* China's output of refined zinc was 423,000 tons in May, down 4.92% from April.

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled up 2.45% at 1054.20 gained on fresh buying tracking firmness from LME nickel which was bid up 2.7 percent to $15,625 as the US dollar came off, LME nickel climbed up overnight. The SHFE contract also initially surged as longs added their positions. The contract then hovered around the 117,580 yuan/mt level. LME and China’s inventories continued to decline, while Chinese central government’s environmental reviews weighed on production of nickel pig iron (NPI).

In the first half of 2017, nickel was selling for an average price of US$4.43 a pound and there was an increasing glut of nickel in London Metal Exchange warehouses. On Aug. 31, that glut reached a whopping 389,154 tonnes. Fast-forward to today and it's a totally different picture. Last week, LME nickel stockpiles had shrunk to 278,800 tonnes. The metal also broke through the US$7-a-pound mark last week -- a gain of about $1.50 pound since last December. Most base metals rose overnight. LME and SHFE nickel led the increases with a gain of over 2%. LME copper touched a low in one week on worries over demand.

LME aluminium and tin weakened. SHFE tin dropped over 1% and aluminium dipped. US PPI rose 0.5% from a month ago in May, more than the expected 0.3%, boosted by a surge in gasoline prices and continued gains in the cost of services. While key factors to watch today include China’s economic data in May, ECB meeting, US import price index and retail sales growth in May, and US initial jobless claims over the week ended June 9.

Technically market is getting support at 1033.1 and below same could see a test of 1011.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1066.7, a move above could see prices testing 1079.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1011.9-1079.1.

* Nickel gained as support came after China said it would ban new capacity for steel, coke and primary aluminium production in some key areas

* The import window for nickel is not open yet and inventory at bonded warehouses is not going to enter the domestic market.

* Nickel invisible inventory was around 57,142 tons as of now, according to data, down 34.12% year-on-year

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled down -0.96% at 154.85 tracking weakness from LME Aluminium which ended 1.1 percent down at $2275 as investors fretted over liquidity in China and awaited news from the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Aluminium prices have come under additional pressure from weakening raw materials prices and rising production volumes in China.

After winter capacity cuts came to an end in the middle of March, Chinese aluminium production rose quickly with April seeing a total of 2.77 million tonnes of aluminium produced, an increase of 1.1% year on year, according to the country’s Bureau of Statistics. In the first four months of 2018, China produced a total of 10.89 million tonnes of primary aluminium, up 0.2% from same period last year. This combined with the weakness in raw materials prices was enough to offset the positive sentiment derived from declines in aluminium stocks at SHFE and London Metal Exchange warehouses. Meanwhile Aluminium inventory dips for six straight weeks on fewer deliveries.

China's inventory of primary aluminium, including SHFE warrants, shrank 53,000 mt from last Thursday to stand at 1.92 million mt as of Thursday June 14. Despite torrential downpours in Guangdong province during last weekend, overall inventory declined on the week due to fewer deliveries to warehouses in northwest China. While key factors to watch today include China’s economic data in May, European Central Bank meeting, US import price index and retail sales growth in May, and US initial jobless claims over the week ended June 9.

Now technically market is getting support at 154.1 and below same could see a test of 153.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 155.9, a move above could see prices testing 156.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 153.3-156.9.

* Aluminium dropped tracking weakness in LME prices as investors fretted over liquidity in China.

* China's export of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis in May reached a record high since the start of 2015 to stand at 485,000 mt.

* Exports of Chinese aluminium products were bolstered by restrictions on Rusal brand aluminium products in US sanctions a month ago.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 1.91% at 1144.4 on rise in demand from the consuming industries at the spot market. Further, restricted supplies from the major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too supported mentha oil prices’ uptrend. Anticipation of bumper crop harvest and nearing of harvesting season also weighing on prices. As per preliminary estimates, acreage under mentha crop will rise this year as the farmers are encouraged by higher price in recent past. As per trade sources, all the major markets are likely to witness higher inflow of the produce in the month of May.

There could be chances of crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition. Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around 80% to the total global mentha oil production.

Total global production stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between 30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1290.10 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.17.00/-.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.22% to settled at 1099 while prices up 21.4 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1117.5 and below same could see a test of 1090.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1160, a move above could see prices testing 1175.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1090.5-1175.5.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1290.10 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.17.00/-.

* Mentha oil gains on rise in demand from the consuming industries at the spot market.

* However, there is anticipation of bumper crop harvest and nearing of harvesting season.

* As per preliminary estimates, acreage under mentha crop will rise this year as the farmers are encouraged by higher prices.

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled up by 0.41% at 3418 on short covering after prices dropped tracking weakness in spot demand and overseas prices weighed down crop-friendly weather and a lack of Chinese demand for U.S. supplies. The USDA lowered its forecasts for U.S. soy ending stocks for the 2018/19 crop year that begins on Sept. 1. Around 25% of soybean stocks are with farmers and stockiest till May 31 on weak demand from crushers, said the Soybean Processors Association of India in a press release.

Of total 8.450 million tons soybean around 2.16 million soybeans still with farmers and stockiest while 7.1 million tons have arrived in the market till May 31, report said. Soybean crushing dropped to 6.050 million tons during Oct-May compared to 6.175 million tons in the same period a year ago. Crushing for May dropped to 500,000 tons compared to 600,000 tons in the same period a year ago while lower than 550,000 tons, SOPA said.

Meanwhile, India's soymeal exports during Oct-May dropped to 1.213 million tons compared to 1.523 million tons a year ago, SOPA said. Soymeal exports in May dropped to 47,000 tons compared to 129,000 tons in the same period a year ago, SOPA said. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -16 Rupees to 3472 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.43% to settled at 128880 while prices up 14 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 3374 and below same could see a test of 3330 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3449, a move above could see prices testing 3480.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 3330-3480.

* Soyabean on short covering after prices dropped tracking weakness in overseas prices weighed down crop-friendly weather.

* The USDA lowered its forecasts for U.S. soy ending stocks for the 2018/19 crop year that begins on Sept. 1.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 150 tonnes to 16247 tonnes.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -16 Rupees to 3472 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled down by -0.06% at 739.85 due to higher stocks with the traders and sufficient availability of oilseeds in the country. Oilmeal exports from India have taken a beating with exports falling by 8 per cent for the first two months of the current year. Data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) show the oilmeal shipments declining by 8 per cent for the April-May 2018 period at 321,179 tonnes against 348,222 tonnes during the same period last year.

For the month of May alone, exports fell 33 per cent from a year ago to 97,036 tonnes as shipments of soyameal and rapeseed meal dropped. There was anticipation that government is likely to hike import duty of all soft oils to support prices of domestic oilseeds but because of no decision the prices are going down. Moreover, government has slashed the base import prices of crude soyoil for the second consecutive fortnight by $31 per tn to $769 per tonnes.

Based on global prices and fluctuation in foreign exchange rates, the government revises base import prices every fortnight, it was last revised on 15th May. As per the data from SEA, crude soyoil imports during the April dropped 13% to 264,750 tons compared to 304,942 tons in the same period a year ago. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 730 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.91% to settled at 53090 while prices down -0.45 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 736 and below same could see a test of 732 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 744, a move above could see prices testing 748.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 732-748.

* Ref soyoil dropped due to higher stocks with the traders and sufficient availability of oilseeds in the country.

* Oilmeal exports from India have taken a beating with exports falling by 8 per cent for the first two months of the current year.

* Moreover, government has slashed the base import prices of crude soyoil for the second consecutive fortnight by $31 per tn to $769 per tonnes.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 730 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by 0.46% at 636.4 tracking firmness in spot demand despite of worries over weak Malaysian export demand and positioning ahead of USDA crop and supply/demand reports. Earlier, government has raised the base import price of palm oil. The government hiked the base import price of RMD Palmolein to $681 per tn from $672 per tn. The base import price of CPO has been hiked to $658 per tn from $655 per tn. India’s palm oil imports dropped in April due to higher taxes on shipments and weaker rupees making imports expensive.

As per SEA latest report, CPO imports in March increased by 30.33% compared to same period a year ago despite the govt. imposed higher duty. However, Shipment of RBD palmolein dropped 25.56% to 163,222 tons compared to 219,270 tons last year. Malaysia's exports between June 1 and 10 stood at 324,947 tonnes, down 20 % from the same period a month earlier. Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm oil producer, kept its crude palm oil export tax at 5% in July.

As per latest MPOB data release, Malaysia's palm oil exports fell 15.7% on month to 1.29 mt in May due to lower demand from China and the EU resulted in a fall in exports. Malaysia's crude palm oil production also declined 2.11% on month to 1.53 mt in May.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.04% to settled at 4450 while prices up 2.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 630 and below same could see a test of 623.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 640.5, a move above could see prices testing 644.5.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 623.5-644.5.

* Crude palm oil gained tracking firmness in spot demand despite of worries over weak Malaysian export demand

* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jun. 1-10 fell 18.2 percent to 334,132 tonnes from 408,568 tonnes shipped during May. 1-10.

* EU 2017/18 palm oil imports stood at 5.8 million tonnes, up 2 percent from 5.7 million tonnes a year earlier.

* Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 2.10 rupees and settled at 640.10 rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled up by 0.66% at 3973 tracking firmness in spot demand amid higher crushing demand and improved meal exports. According to data compiled by the MOPA, mills across the country crushed 900,000 tn of the oilseed in May, unchanged from the previous month but the crushing is higher compared to last year. Overall mustard stock in the country were estimated at 53 lakh tonnes (70 lt production minus 17 lt crushed), out of which 42 lt is still with the farmers while 11 lt with the oil mills and stockists.

As per latest SEA import data, mustard oil imports were down 14% on year in April which may lead to higher domestic crushing. According to SEA latest export report, mustard meal exports during first 5 months of 2018 is higher by 164% on year due to higher demand from South Korea. Exports are 209% higher at 6.64 lt for the FY 2017/18 compared to previous year’s export volume of 2.14 lt.

National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India Ltd (NAFED) bought 496,072 ton of mustard seed in major producing states and halted the purchases in Haryana. Government authorized the cooperative giant to purchase mustard seed from farmers at Rs 4,000 per quintal inclusive of Rs 100 as bonus. In Haryana, NAFED has stopped purchases after buying 227,517 ton of mustard seeds, said sources. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -25.75 Rupees to end at 4025 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.43% to settled at 143590 while prices up 26 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 3937 and below same could see a test of 3900 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3997, a move above could see prices testing 4020.

Trading Ideas:

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 3900-4020.

* Mustard seed prices gained tracking firmness in spot demand amid higher crushing demand and improved meal exports.

* According to data compiled by the MOPA, mills across the country crushed 900,000 tn of the oilseed in May, unchanged from the previous month.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks gained by 332 tonnes to 98724 tonnes.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -25.75 Rupees to end at 4025 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 3.59% at 7448 due to bargain buying by stockists and retailers amid restricted supplies from growing regions. Meanwhile, firm spot domestic and export demands also kept the prices in positive trend. However upside seen limited amid good progress of monsoon rains in turmeric growing regions of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka and tracking steady demand in the physical market. In the last month, prices have fallen about 6% from its three months high levels due to profit booking by market participants.

Supplies from the new season turmeric have been lower during May at 53,500 t (Vs 73,500 t) compared last year, as per data. The export of turmeric was down by 13% at 108,897 tonnes in FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. Turmeric Exports in March was pegged at 10,410 tonnes is 22.4% lower on year but 31.58 % higher on month.

Spot turmeric prices increased at the markets in Erode following an upsurge in domestic as well as export demand against restricted supplies. Hybrid turmeric witnessed robust demand which led to a rise in its prices. On Monday, 2,500 bags of turmeric arrived for sale. The traders purchased good number of hybrid finger turmeric bags and also bought few bags of hybrid root variety. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7301.45 Rupees remains unchanged at0 Rupees.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.42% to settled at 14935 while prices up 258 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7272 and below same could see a test of 7096 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7542, a move above could see prices testing 7636.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7096-7636.

* Turmeric prices gained due to bargain buying by stockists and retailers amid restricted supplies from growing regions.

* However upside seen limited amid good progress of monsoon rains in turmeric growing regions of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 79 tonnes to 5777 tonnes.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7301.45 Rupees remains unchanged at0 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 1.16% at 16565 amid expectation of strong overseas demand on supply uncertainties in other producing nations. Global demand for Indian jeera has firmed up as Syria and Turkey crop will arrive only around June-July. Mandi sources maintained that export enquiries have been good as India is the only jeera supplier to the world market currently. Jeera arrivals during May are pegged at 21,713 tonnes compared to 11,000 tonnes last year for same month.

According to export data released by government, Jeera recorded its highest monthly exports of 33,458 tonnes in March. During FY 2017/18, country exported about 1,60,479 tonnes of jeera, up by 24.5% on year. India jeera crop is projected for bumper harvest thanks to higher acreage and favorable weather conditions.

The Federation of Indian Spices Stakeholders (FISS) -- a trade body -- projected India's 2017-18 jeera output at 6.92 million bags, up 19% on year on back of higher acreage and favourable weather. Last year India produced 5.83 million bags of jeera. Jeera sowing in Gujarat jumped nearly 38% to 382,700 hectares, data from Gujarat Agriculture Directorate showed. Data showed jeera arrivals in Gujarat during March 1-20 at 37,767 ton as against 31,239 ton a year ago.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 145.2 Rupees to end at 16428.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.47% to settled at 5391 while prices up 190 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 16390 and below same could see a test of 16215 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 16675, a move above could see prices testing 16785.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 16215-16785.

* Jeera prices gained amid expectation of strong overseas demand on supply uncertainties in other producing nations.

* Global demand for Indian jeera has firmed up as Syria and Turkey crop will arrive only around June-July.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 309 tonnes to 2321 tonnes.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 145.2 Rupees to end at 16428.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cardamom

Cardamom on MCX settled up by 2.64% at 976.1 on short covering after prices dropped on reports of bumper output on the back of favourable weather amid poor stocks of quality goods. There has been raining in the producing centres of Kerala and present weather is conducive to the coming crop. Spice Board cut the number auctions due to falling arrivals at the auction centres.

Producing centres of Kerala are getting good rains and monsoon is also expected to hit Kerala coast three days before schedule. India exported 4,180 ton cardamom valued at Rs 4.56 billion during April-December 2017, data from Spices Board showed. Cardamom will be auctioned once every day at e-auction centres in Tamil Nadu's Bodinayakanur and Kerala's Puttady from Monday till Jun 30, the Spices Board India said.

The board has reduced the auctions per week to six from 12 because growers' organizations complained that "Cardamom lots of small growers are pushed back, half day auctions are extending up to late evening and traders are not getting sufficient time to get their cardamom samples evaluated to fix the quality.

The small cardamom prices showed an easier/ steady trend after remaining firmer last week. As the prices moved up in recent days those holding the capsules have started releasing in good quantity and that coupled with the comparatively inferior quality of the material has pushed the prices down.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.73% to settled at 208 while prices up 25.1 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 959 and below same could see a test of 941.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 990.4, a move above could see prices testing 1004.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Cardamom trading range for the day is 941.8-1004.6.

* Cardamom gained on short covering after prices dropped on reports of bumper output on the back of favourable weather

* There has been raining in the producing centres of Kerala and present weather is conducive to the coming crop.

* Producing centres of Kerala are getting good rains and monsoon is also expected to hit Kerala coast three days before schedule.

* Cardamom prices in spot market gained by 20.30 rupees and settled at 988.60 rupees.

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled down by -0.17% at 23000 on profit booking after prices gained on reports of lower closing stocks for 2017/18. The Cotton Association of India cut its estimate for 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) closing stock to 16 lakh bales from 21 lakh bales seen in April. Currently, cotton is trading at 22 months highs in the domestic market as Miller and traders are stocking up cotton for the lean season.

Moreover, in its balance sheet for the 2017-18 cotton season, CAI has estimated total cotton supply the till September 30 at 410 lakh bales. This includes the opening stock of 30 lakh bales in October 2017. Domestic consumption has been higher, at 324 lakh bales, while exports, at 70 lakh bales, are higher than earlier estimates of 50- 55 lakh bales.

USDA US and World supply and demand report showed old crop US ending stocks for cotton cut by 500,000 bales to 4.2 million bales. That came from an increase to exports, as the new crop carryout was down the same to 4.7 million bales. The Cotlook A index was up 150 points from the previous day to 99 cents/lb on June 7. The cotton AWP was updated to 81.27 cents/lb on Thursday, 1.39 cents/lb above the day prior.

China will import 1.4 million tonnes of cotton in the 2018/19 crop year, its agriculture ministry said, raising its forecast from last month's 1.2 million tonnes.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.2% to settled at 6388 while prices down -40 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22830 and below same could see a test of 22660 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 23210, a move above could see prices testing 23420.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 22660-23420.

* Cotton prices ended with losses on profit booking after prices gained on reports of lower closing stocks for 2017/18.

* The Cotton Association of India cut its estimate for 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) closing stock to 16 lakh bales from 21 lakh bales seen in April.

* China will import 1.4 million tonnes of cotton in the 2018/19 crop year, its agriculture ministry said, raising its forecast from last month's 1.2 million tonnes.

* Cotton prices in spot market gained by 90.00 rupees and settled at 22750.00 rupees.

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