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Published on 12/01/2018 11:14:26 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 737-747 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

Gold

Gold on MCX settled up 0.23% at 29390 tracking Comex Gold which rose to near a four-month high rose 0.20% to $1,322.00 an ounce as the dollar index dipped for the second straight session following earlier data from the US, the world's largest economy, and ahead of Federal Reserve Governor William Dudley's speech.

While yesterday the European Central Bank could consider a gradual shift in guidance from early 2018, the minutes of the ECB December meeting showed, as policymakers saw "some comfort" in wage dynamics despite ongoing concerns over subdued inflation. The hawkish tone of the minutes fuelled a surge in the euro, pressuring the dollar toward four-month lows, while weaker-than-forecast wholesale inflation for December deepened the dollar’s retreat supporting an uptick in gold prices.

From data point the Labor Department said Thursday its producer price index for final demand fell 0.1% last month after rising 0.2% in November. In the 12 months through December, the PPI rose 2.6, missing expectation for a 3% rise. The softer wholesale inflation data renewed inflation jitters, easing investor optimism for a more aggressive Federal Reserve stance on monetary policy as investors awaited a consumer inflation report due Friday.

from physical side gold holdings at the SPDR Trust, fell on Wednesday by 2.95 tonnes to 828.96 tonnes, the lowest since August 29, after holdings rose 3% in 2017, or 23.63 tonnes. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.78% to settled at 6337 while prices up 66 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 29320 and below same could see a test of 29250 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29433, a move above could see prices testing 29476.   

Trading Ideas:   

* Gold trading range for the day is 29250-29476.

* Gold prices gains after minutes of a European Central Bank meeting showed a more aggressive tone and boosted the euro against the U.S. dollar.

* The European Central Bank signalled it could begin to wind down its 2.5 trillion euro ($3.01 trillion) stimulus program this year.

* Fed President Loretta Mester said she expects about four interest rate hikes this year, thanks to solid U.S. economic growth and low unemployment.

Silver

Silver traded in range after the dollar dropped on hawkish ECB meeting minutes suggesting monetary policy tightening may soon follow. The European Central Bank signalled it could begin to wind down its 2.5 trillion euro ($3.01 trillion) stimulus program this year.

The ECB should revisit its communication stance in early 2018, accounts of its December meeting showed, suggesting that policymakers could soon start preparing markets for the end of the bank's massive stimulus.  US data showed producer prices dipped 0.1% m/m in December, the first such decline since July, missing expectations of a 0.2% rise. 

US unemployment claims rose to 260 thousand in the week ending January 6 from 250K, the second weekly increase in a row.  The overall disappointing data cut chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike in March, and the bets of three hikes this year similar to 2017.

Otherwise, White House economic adviser Gary Kohen said earlier that the stock market is not too high right now, and the tax cuts have begun to have an impact on the economy, with wages rising and optimism improving.  The World Bank released its global forecasts, expecting the strongest growth rate since the financial crisis, with global GDP expected to grow 3.1% in 2018, up from 3% in 2017.  

Emerging economies will lead global growth, especially those relying on commodity exports, with the bank expecting a 4.5% growth rate for them in 2018 before settling at 4.7% in 2019 and 2020, while developed economies are projected to grow 2.2% in 2018, down from 2.3% in 2017. Technically now Silver is getting support at 38727 and below same could see a test of 38514 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39092, a move above could see prices testing 39244.        

Trading Ideas:   

* Silver trading range for the day is 38514-39244.

* Silver traded in range after the dollar dropped on hawkish ECB meeting minutes suggesting monetary policy tightening may soon follow.

* The greenback was also under pressure after data showed U.S. producer prices fell for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years in December amid declining costs for services.

* Weak inflation at the producer level could add to concerns that the factors restraining inflation could become more persistent.

Crudeoil

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 1.59% at 4100 amid expectations that global oil demand growth and ongoing OPEC cuts would continue to reduce excess supplies. The rally in oil prices continued unabated amid investor optimism that key factors supporting the late-2017 rally such as strong OPEC compliance, and bullish oil demand growth amid rising global economic growth would offset the expected ramp up in non-OPEC output.

Also supporting oil prices was Wednesday’s bullish inventories data showing an unexpected drop in US production and larger than expected draw in US crude oil supplies. Market fundamentals going into 2018 were strong due to ongoing production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia that coincide with healthy demand growth.

The production cuts started in January last year and are set to last through 2018. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell almost 5 million barrels in the week to Jan. 5, to 419.5 million barrels. Global Risk Management said this was despite U.S. oil production, currently at 9.5 million barrels per day (bpd), likely breaking through 10 million bpd.

Goldman Sachs noted recently that markets are dealing with “two offsetting dynamics” as stronger economic growth has fuelled oil demand, boosting oil prices, but that tends to attract a ramp up in shale output which could cap long-term oil prices.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.42% to settled at 23981 while prices up 64 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting support at 4053 and below same could see a test of 4005 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4136, a move above could see prices testing 4171.      

Trading Ideas:   

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4005-4171.

* Crude oil gained amid expectations that global oil demand growth and ongoing OPEC cuts would continue to reduce excess supplies.

* OPEC's producers, Iran and Iraq, this week cut their supply prices to remain competitive with customers.

* Crude inventories fell almost 5 million barrels in the week to Jan. 5, to 419.5 million barrels.

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled up 5.39% at 195.40 rallied on short-covering the highest finish for a most-active contract since November, as U.S. gas supplies tumbled by a record 359B cf last week, beating the market consensus estimate for a decrease of 337Bcf. Yesterday the U.S.

Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. declined by 359bcf in the week ended Jan. 5, compared to forecasts for a withdrawal of 318 bcf. That surpassed the record draw of 287bcf in the week ended Jan. 10, 2014, EIA data showed. Meanwhile Mild conditions will remain over the southern and eastern US today with highs reaching the 40s and 50s over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with 60s and 70s over the southern US.

A fresh cold blast with rain and snow will impact the Rockies and Plains today, then advancing into the East this weekend through early next week with lows of -15°F to 20s. The NW will bring rain and snow, while milder and drier across the SW. Next will be cold over the East with rain and snow. Overall, national demand will be increasing to HIGH this weekend through early next week.

Now total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.767tcf, according to the US EIA. That figure is 415 bcf, or around 13.0%, lower than levels at this time a year ago and 382 bcf, or roughly 12.1%, below the five-year average for this time of year.

Prices have gained around 5% so far this week as investors reacted to the severe winter storm hitting much of the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. Technically market is getting support at 187.8 and below same could see a test of 180.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 199.6, a move above could see prices testing 203.9.         

Trading Ideas:   

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 180.3-203.9.

* Natural gas surged hitting their highest level in a week after data showed the largest withdrawal on record in U.S. supplies in storage.

* The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. declined by 359 billion cubic feet (bcf).

* The US withdrew a record volume of natural gas from storage last week as extreme cold froze cities from Chicago to Boston.

Copper

Copper on MCX settled down -0.21% at 456.15 hurt by a shift to stocks due to U.S. earnings optimism and a rise in oil prices. China’s imported unwrought copper reached 4.69 million mt in 2017, down 5.2% from levels seen in 2016. The import volume in December stood at 450,000 mt, down 4.3% from a month ago and down 8.2% from December 2016.

Trading in China’s physical imported copper market is likely to stay thin until Chinese New Year with spot premiums under pressure. China’s copper output rose in December as some large producers looked to hit their annual production target at the year-end. Qingyuan Jiangxi Copper and Shandong Humon Smelting Group also resumed production in December while other small and medium-sized smelters cut output due to environmental protection measures. 

China’s copper output in January to drop from levels seen in December due to limited production from small to medium-sized smelters, slower production pace at larger ones, and the ongoing testing work at Huludao Hongyue Copper’s 150,000-mt project. The World Bank released its global forecasts on Wednesday, expecting the strongest growth rate since the financial crisis, with global GDP expected to grow 3.1% in 2018, up from 3% in 2017. 

Emerging economies will lead global growth, especially those relying on commodity exports, with the bank expecting a 4.5% growth rate for them in 2018 before settling at 4.7% in 2019 and 2020, while developed economies are projected to grow 2.2% in 2018, down from 2.3% in 2017. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.54% to settled at 11338, now Copper is getting support at 452.6 and below same could see a test of 449 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 459.7, a move above could see prices testing 463.2.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Copper trading range for the day is 449-463.2.

* Copper dropped hurt by a shift to stocks due to U.S. earnings optimism and a rise in oil prices.

* Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, will suspend production at its Jinguan Copper unit for three days from Friday for repairs.

* China’s copper output rose in December as some large producers looked to hit their annual production target at the year-end.

Zinc  

Zinc on MCX settled up 0.93% at 216.65 gained on fresh buying headed towards its highest in more than a decade amid a supply crunch. Yesterday LME Zinc ended up 1.5 percent at $3,386, near its highest for more than decade hit earlier this week at $3,400.

As per Macquarie Zinc have been flagging Q1 2018 as the quarterly peak for zinc for some time now, on the assumptions that demand destruction and new mine supply finally begin to tackle the yawning deficit. While traders are eyeing on the market as High zinc prices could eventually lead to an irreversible dent in consumption of the metal, specifically in the form of zinc alloys in electric vehicles (EVs).

Substitution out of zinc is likeliest in the alloys sector, estimating that up to 3-5% of metal usage at current levels could be at risk - albeit over a matter of years rather than in the immediate term. Zinc alloys are ideally suited for use in complex car parts such as camera, radar and connector housings. These parts can be produced quickly and consistently using zinc but are heavier than their aluminium-based counterparts.

Meanwhile the dollar fell versus the euro after the European Central Bank signalled it could begin to wind down its 2.5-trillion euro stimulus program this year. A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced metals cheaper for non-U.S. investors.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.45% to settled at 12100 while prices up 2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 215.4 and below same could see a test of 214 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 217.5, a move above could see prices testing 218.2.

Trading Ideas:   

* Zinc trading range for the day is 214-218.2.

* Zinc prices ended with gains as support continues amid a supply crunch.

* China's 2018 zinc output seen rising as more smelters come on stream.

* Market is "confused" about post-winter consumption outlook in China but historically low zinc concentrate are set to support prices.    

 Nickel        

Nickel on MCX settled down -1.98% at 802.80 in the line of expectation as trader preferred to book profit after pushing the metal to its highest level in 2-1/2 years in the previous session. While sentiments still remain firm as still Four nickel mines in the Philippines, remain shut on environmental grounds, an official said, while Japan's Sumitomo Corp 8053.T suspended output at a mine in Madagascar following a cyclone.

While as per Societe Generale update There's good demand for nickel coupled with some supply tightness coming through because of mine closures in the Philippines. The market is in a deficit and that will continue. Meanwhile funds have ramped up bets on higher prices, doubling their net long position in LME nickel from a low in December to 29746 contracts as of Jan. 5.

Also Nickel stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses stood at 48,920 tonnes as of Jan. 5 versus over 90,000 tonnes a year ago. LME nickel stocks at 368,292 tonnes are down from levels above 470,000 tonnes in June 2015, but double levels seen in May 2013.

ShFE Nickel dropped more than 2 percent to a 3-day low, while LME nickel recovered from an overnight selloff to trade 0.3 percent firmer at $12,660 a tonne. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.69% to settled at 9956 while prices down -16.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 795.1 and below same could see a test of 787.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 815.9, a move above could see prices testing 829.1.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Nickel trading range for the day is 787.5-829.1.

* Nickel dropped on profit booking after rise in LME stocks after prices gained on concerns over low stock levels and production outages.

* Four nickel mines in the Zambales region of the Philippines, remain shut on environmental grounds, an official said.

* Deliverable ShFE nickel warehouse stocks stood at 48,920 tonnes as of Jan. 5, compared with over 90,000 tonnes a year ago.

 Aluminium   

Aluminium dropped tracking weakness in other metals and LME prices dropped by 0.3 percent at $2,175.50, recovering from a low of $2,149.50 on Jan. 9. Aluminium scrap is set to see tightened supply in 2018 as environmental protection policies weigh in further. Such tightness would be mostly felt around Chinese New Year and the fourth quarter when demand increases.

The tightening supply of aluminium scrap is mainly due to environmental protection measures and policy changes on imported materials. Despite the supply-side reform and winter cuts last year, recovered and newly-added capacity made up for the suspended capacity at Shandong Weiqiao, Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Xiwang, Xinjiang Jiarun and Inner Monglia Jinlian.

Domestic aluminium ingots inventory stood at 1.76 million mt, up by 1.42 million mt from a year ago. The actual surplus was over 1.14 million mt considering those held up in Xinjiang. The operating capacity is expected to rise in January considering the newly-built capacity of Huaren, Hualei, Huarun, Gansu Zhongrui, Mengtai and Chuangyuan.

US data showed producer prices dipped 0.1% m/m in December, the first such decline since July, missing expectations of a 0.2% rise. US unemployment claims rose to 260 thousand in the week ending January 6 from 250K, the second weekly increase in a row.  The World Bank released its global forecasts on Wednesday, expecting the strongest growth rate since the financial crisis, with global GDP expected to grow 3.1% in 2018, up from 3% in 2017. 

  Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.85% to settled at 2079 while prices down -0.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 137.9 and below same could see a test of 136.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 140.2, a move above could see prices testing 141.4.              

Trading Ideas:   

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 136.8-141.4.

* Aluminium dropped tracking weakness in other metals and LME prices dropped by 0.3 percent at $2,175.50, recovering from a low of $2,149.50 on Jan. 9.

* Despite the supply-side reform and winter cuts last year, recovered and newly-added capacity made up for the suspended capacity.

* Domestic aluminium ingots inventory stood at 1.76 million mt, up by 1.42 million mt from a year ago.

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 2.78% at 1670.1 on the back of strong demand from consuming industries in domestic spot market. Further, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too supported mentha oil prices’ uptrend.

Stock positions of mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 7327 drums which is 105 drums less in comparison to previous day, while in process were 12 drums which is 72 drums less against the previous day. From export front, there is no expectation of any positive development in the recent times. Due to the increased production and usage of synthetic mentha in the recent years, demand for natural mentha has decreased.

As per the reports the global demand of essential oil will increase in the coming years. This will boost mentha oil demand, mainly from medicines, health products, cosmetics as well as food and beverages. This year mentha oil output is projected at 25,000-30,000 ton as against 35,000 ton in the previous year due to fall in acreage.

Mentha stood at 175,000 hectare down 20% compared to last year. India exported 5,365 ton mint products during April-June 2017 up from 5,259 ton a year ago, Spices Board data showed. In value term, India's mint export recorded a growth of 8% to Rs 113.1 million, data showed. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1938.50 per 1kg.

Spot prices was up by Rs.47.00/-.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.7% to settled at 1697 while prices up 45.1 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1637.7 and below same could see a test of 1605.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1688.2, a move above could see prices testing 1706.2.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1605.2-1706.2.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1938.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.47.00/-.

* Mentha oil gained on the back of strong demand from consuming industries in domestic spot market.

* Further, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too supported mentha oil prices uptrend.

* As per the reports the global demand of essential oil will increase in the coming years.

 Soyabean   

Soyabean on NCDEX settled down by -0.64% at 3267 on profit booking after prices gained on reports of improved demand from the oil mills. According to the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA), the total supply of soybean has been estimated at 104.49 lakh metric tonnes for the oil year 2017 -18 in its first quarterly estimates.

Carryover stocks have been estimated at 3.99 lakh metric tonnes. For the first quarter of the current oil year till December 2017, the production is estimated at 91.46 lakh metric tonnes, while the carryover from the previous year is put at 13.03 lakh metric tonnes. The demand for crushing is likely to be around 85 lakh metric tonnes, while exports are projected at 2 lakh metric tonnes.

Soybean crushing may fall in January for a second straight month after witnessing fall of 9.51% in December on sharp rally in the prices, the Soybean Processors Association of India said. Soybean crushing in December dropped to 950,000 tons compared to 1.05 million tons in November month, industry said in its Estimated S&D of Soybean & Soybean Meal report.

   Industry also expects arrivals to drop in January, after witnessing fall of 44.73% in December, as recent hike in prices may prompt farmers to hoard their produces to fetch higher returns, the Soybean Processors Association of India said.  

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  7 Rupees to 3333 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.69% to settled at 289180 while prices down -21 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 3251 and below same could see a test of 3235 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3284, a move above could see prices testing 3301.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 3235-3301.

* Soyabean prices dropped on profit booking after prices gained on reports of improved demand from the oil mills.

* The total supply of soybean has been estimated at 104.49 lakh metric tonnes for the oil year 2017 -18 in its first quarterly estimates.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 456 tonnes to 216865 tonnes.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  7 Rupees to 3333 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled down by -0.6% at 740.95 tracing weakness in spot demand amid profit booking. The prices were under pressure due to higher stocks in the country and sufficient stocks in the pipeline amid improved domestic crushing and higher imports. The government has slashed the base import price of all edible oils.

For soy soil the base import prices were cut by $19 per ton to $813 for the first fortnight of Jan 2018. The government revises base import prices every fortnight based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate. Prices were last revised on Dec 15.

According to data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA), India vegetable oil imports rose around 6% on year to 12.5 lakh tonnes in November. Soyoil imports surged by 66.7% in November to 2.74 lt compared to 1.64 lt last year. India's oilmeal exports dropped by 22% compared to same period a year ago on higher prices amid lower number of export dates, provisional data released by Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) showed. India's total oilmeal exports during December provisionally reported at 236,000 tons compared to 301,556 tons in the same period a year ago

Export of oilmeal, used as animal feed, dropped by 22 per cent to 2.36 lakh tonnes in December from 3.01 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period, but total shipments this fiscal are likely to remain higher, industry body SEA said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 742.4 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.79% to settled at 35280 while prices down -4.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 739 and below same could see a test of 737 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 744, a move above could see prices testing 747. 

Trading Ideas:   

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 737-747.

* Ref soyoil ended with losses tracing weakness in spot demand amid profit booking.

* The prices were under pressure due to higher stocks in the country and sufficient stocks in the pipeline amid improved domestic crushing and higher imports.

* India's oilmeal exports dropped by 22% compared to same period a year ago on higher prices amid lower number of export dates.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 742.4 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -0.48% at 559.5 on profit booking after prices gained due to reports of good demand from the stockists. Crude palm oil output in Malaysia, the world's second biggest CPO producer, dropped by 6% compared to previous month, data released by Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed.

Palm oil output in December month fell to 1.83 million tons compared to 1.94 million tons in November.  Malaysian palm oil exports also climbed by 5.18% to 1.42 million tons compared to 1.35 million tons previous month, data showed. Malaysian palm oil inventories surged to a more than two-year high of 2.7 million tonnes at end-December, as production continued to outpace exports, government data showed.

Stockpiles in Malaysia rose 7 percent on the previous month to the largest level since November 2015, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data. Inventories were also at the highest year-end level since at least 2000, following a sixth consecutive month of gains. POI/ Production fell 5.6 percent in December to 1.8 million tonnes, but output was still at its highest for the final month of the year since at least 2000, the MPOB data showed.

The figure took Malaysia's total 2017 production to 19.9 million tonnes, up 15 percent on a year earlier. Output in 2018 is expected to exceed 20 million tonnes, said Malaysia's plantations minister on Tuesday, as crops recover further from a dry weather El Nino event two years ago

. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.23% to settled at 4568 while prices down -2.7 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 558.5 and below same could see a test of 557.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 561.2, a move above could see prices testing 562.8.      

Trading Ideas:   

* CPO trading range for the day is 557.4-562.8.

* Crude palm oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to reports of good demand from the stockists.

* Crude palm oil output in Malaysia, the world's second biggest CPO producer, dropped by 6% compared to previous month, data released by MPOB.

* Palm oil output in December month fell to 1.83 million tons compared to 1.94 million tons in November. 

                Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 2.60 rupees and settled at 554.70 rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -0.66% at 4066 due to profit booking tracking weak physical demand. Currently, mustard is trading lower than its MSP due to reports good progress in sowing season and steady demand. Currently the prices have been moving according to the winter demand but reports of lower acreage than last year and higher carry-over stocks are putting pressure in futures.

The acreage of mustard was down 6% till last week at 65.3 lakh ha, as per latest rabi sowing report by the government. Rajasthan is the largest mustard growing state but the sowing pace is slower than last year at 20.9 lakh ha Vs 28 lakh ha. The area under the mustard crop across the country was at 6.5 mln ha, down 6.2% on year, according to data from the farm ministry.The acreage so far is, however, higher than the normal of 6.1 mln ha for the entire season.

Uneven showers during the southwest monsoon season has affected sowing in key growing areas, including top growing state Rajasthan, agricultural scientists said.  In key spot markets across the country, prices of mustard have slipped below the minimum support price of 3,700 rupees per 100 kg, prompting the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India to intervene and start procurement. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -25.75 Rupees to end at 3973.5 Rupees per 100 kg

.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.58% to settled at 44600 while prices down -27 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 4050 and below same could see a test of 4035 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4085, a move above could see prices testing 4105.     

Trading Ideas:   

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 4035-4105.

* Mustard seed prices dropped due to profit booking tracking weak physical demand.

* The acreage of mustard was down 6% till last week at 65.3 lakh ha, as per latest rabi sowing report by the government.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks dropped by 991 tonnes to 10422 tonnes.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -25.75 Rupees to end at 3973.5 Rupees per 100 kg.             

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 0.56% at 7572 as reports of thin supplies in local markets and decline of yield due to poor rainfall in major producing states such as Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana triggered fresh buying. New crop would commence by the end of this month and expectations of selling by the AP Markfed. AP Markfed had purchased nearly 48,500 ton turmeric under market intervention scheme.

Standing turmeric crop is mostly in its vegetative to development stage across major growing states. As per preliminary estimates, output in the season is expected to decline slightly due to lower sowing. Arrivals of new crop generally start in December and picks up in January-February. Spot turmeric prices decreased at Erode markets due to slack demand from upcountry buyers.

Around 5,000 bags arrived for sale and the buyers purchased all the 600 bags of good quality turmeric and purchased 2,500 and odd bags of medium quality. The best quality finger variety went for Rs8,400 a quintal in all the markets and the root variety at Rs7,800. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, the finger turmeric fetched Rs5,555-8,539 a quintal; root variety Rs5,209-7,803. Of the arrival of 3,574 bags, 1,339 were traded.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7650 Rupees gained 33.35 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.83% to settled at 9935 while prices up 42 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7510 and below same could see a test of 7448 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7626, a move above could see prices testing 7680.     

Trading Ideas:   

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7448-7680.

* Turmeric gained as reports of thin supplies in local markets and decline of yield due to poor rainfall in major producing states.

* New crop would commence by the end of this month and expectations of selling by the AP Markfed.

* Around 5,000 bags arrived for sale and the buyers purchased all the 600 bags of good quality turmeric and purchased 2,500 and odd bags of medium quality.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7650 Rupees gained 33.35 Rupees.

Jeera    

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.39% at 16915 on higher physical demand in domestic and overseas market. However upside seen limited amid with reports of higher acreage of cumin in the current season. India's 2016-17 cumin output fell to 489,000 ton from 503,000 ton a year ago and as a result stocks with traders and farmers are stated to lower.

Apprehensions of drop in supplies in the days may support prices to trade higher. India jeera is stated to cheaper as compared to that of Syria and Turkey in global markets and is in good demand.  At present stock with traders and farmers is insufficient to meet the demand till February next year when new jeera crop will hit the markets.

As per Gujarat Govt. normal Jeera sowing area around 280,300 hectares. Current year area sowing around 130,100 hectares as compared to last year 99,100 hectares. Major zone wise area reported 4900 hectares in Kutch, North Gujarat 64,000 hectares, Middle Gujarat 11,800 hectares, Saurashtra 49400 hectares. Higher prices and strong export demand are likely to prompt farmers to cultivate more cumin seed (jeera) this year, leading to an increase in its acreage.

Cumin seed acreage increasing by about 8-10 per cent in Gujarat and the bordering districts of Rajasthan in 2017-18, following attractive prices that the seed spice fetched farmers last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 88.35 Rupees to end at 20630 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.7% to settled at 8319 while prices up 65 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 16810 and below same could see a test of 16700 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 17000, a move above could see prices testing 17080.   

Trading Ideas:   

* Jeera trading range for the day is 16700-17080.

* Jeera prices ended with gains on higher physical demand in domestic and overseas market.

* However upside seen limited amid with reports of higher acreage of cumin in the current season.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 509 tonnes to 10085 tonnes.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 88.35 Rupees to end at 20630 Rupees per 100 kg. 

Cardamom

Cardamom on MCX settled down by -1.03% at 1107.5 amid higher arrivals at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Total arrivals last week were up at 892 tonnes last week from 707 tonnes the previous week. The individual auction average has moved up to Rs. 936.32 a kg last week from Rs. 906.32 the previous week. Depleting inventories in the upcountry markets coupled with buying support from consuming centres could be attributed to the rise in demand.

Added to this, the current season’s peak harvesting time is over and hence there exists a fear about squeeze in availability of quality material in the coming days. The auction average was at around Rs. 950 a kg as against Rs. 932 the previous week. Exporters were also active and said to have bought an estimated 130 tonnes last week.

The individual auction average vacillated between Rs. 912 a kg and Rs. 955 a kg last week. Total arrivals during the current season as on December 23 were at 12,760 tonnes and sales were at 12,505 tonnes. The individual auction average of the season was at Rs. 959.96 a kg. 

  Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.22% to settled at 456 while prices down -11.5 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1097.4 and below same could see a test of 1087.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1123.2, a move above could see prices testing 1139.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Cardamom trading range for the day is 1087.4-1139.

* Cardamom prices dropped amid higher arrivals at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

* Total arrivals last week were up at 892 tonnes last week from 707 tonnes the previous week.

* Depleting inventories in the upcountry markets coupled with buying support from consuming centres could be attributed to the rise in demand.

* Cardamom prices in spot market gained by 2.80 rupees and settled at 1047.10 rupees. 

Cotton       

Cotton on MCX settled up by 2.12% at 20740 due to improved domestic as well as export demand at the spot market. Besides, lower than expected production in the country also added support to cotton uptrend. The arrivals have not yet hit the peak levels. Overall, 20 lakh bales have arrived in Gujarat, while the all-India arrivals are about 100 lakh bales.

Also, there are export commitments for about 15 lakh bales, while nearly 9 lakh bales have already been shipped. The domestic cotton prices are closely connected with the global sentiment, especially with the price movement on New York’s Inter-Continental Exchange (ICE). The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) purchased nearly 485,000 bales cotton at minimum support price (MSP) fixed by government as prices are ruling firm, said sources. 

In a bid to protect the interest of farmers government asked the state agency to purchase the natural fibre at state fixed MSP if prices fall below that level.  "Initially prices were ruling below MSP and we made purchases of 375,000 bales cotton at MSP and the maximum quantity has been bought from the farmers of Telangana," said sources. 

Nearly 120,000 bales have in purchased under commercial operation at market prices mainly from the markets of north India, sources added.  Last year, prices remained above MSP and the government agency had purchased only around 850,000 bales cotton under commercial operations. 

 Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8% to settled at 7470 while prices up 430 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 20426 and below same could see a test of 20113 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 20936, a move above could see prices testing 21133.        

Trading Ideas:   

* Cotton trading range for the day is 20113-21133.

* Cotton prices gained due to improved domestic as well as export demand at the spot market.

* CCI purchased nearly 485,000 bales cotton at minimum support price (MSP) fixed by government as prices are ruling firm, said sources. 

* Overall, 20 lakh bales have arrived in Gujarat, while the all-India arrivals are about 100 lakh bales.

* Cotton prices in spot market gained by 150.00 rupees and settled at 19780.00 rupees. 

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