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Published on 10/08/2018 10:52:30 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Naturalgas trading range for the day is 201.1-204.7 - Kedia

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

Gold

Gold prices seen supported drawing some support from global political tensions and a slightly weaker dollar against the yen. Investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would continue to support the currency. Better-than-expected data on US initial jobless claims and generally rising producer prices also helped the dollar hold its gains.  

North Korea on Thursday denounced U.S. calls for enforcing international sanctions despite its goodwill moves and said progress on denuclearization promises could not be expected if Washington followed an “outdated acting script”.  Japan’s Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said he had a frank exchange about trade on Thursday with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, while appearing to stick with Tokyo’s position of avoiding a bilateral free-trade agreement. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that a strong economy was helping the labour market weather ongoing trade tensions between the United States and a host of other countries.

The U.S. economy is performing “very well” with continued growth clearing the way for one or two more interest rate hikes in 2018, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Thursday in an interview in which he dismissed earlier worries about weak inflation. US producer prices were unchanged in July for the first time in seven months as a modest increase in the cost of goods was offset by a drop in services, but underlying producer inflation continued to push higher. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.3% to settled at 7949 while prices up 58 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 29590 and below same could see a test of 29513 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29739, a move above could see prices testing 29811.   

Trading Ideas:   

*  Gold trading range for the day is 29513-29811.

*  Gold prices seen supported drawing some support from global political tensions and a slightly weaker dollar against the yen.

*    The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that a strong economy was helping the labour market.

*   China warned that duties imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration on some $50 billion of Chinese imports set to be enacted on Aug. 23.

Silver

Silver on MCX settled up 0.47% at 38127 as softer-than-expected inflation indicators eased concerns over an acceleration of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve ahead of the consumer price index out on Friday. Producer price inflation for July was unchanged from the previous month, with the annualized increase easing from 3.4% to 3.3%, according to data. 

Still, market participants were likely to remain cautious as they await the release of the more widely followed consumer price index for July. Markets have priced in a rate hike for the Fed’s next meeting in September and the probability of an additional hike in December has been hovering around 70%.  Russia condemned a new round of U.S. sanctions as illegal on Thursday and said it had begun working on retaliatory measures after news of the curbs pushed the rouble to two-year lows over fears Moscow was locked in a spiral of never-ending sanctions.

Japan’s economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.9 percent in April-June, bouncing back from a contraction in the previous quarter, government data showed on Friday, in a sign its recovery momentum remained intact. China’s producer price index (PPI), a gauge of factory gate inflation, rose 4.6% in July from a year earlier, compared with an acceleration of 4.7% in June, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.1% in July, compared with a 0.3% growth in June. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.1% from a year earlier in July, faster than June's 1.9% growth. Technically now Silver is getting support at 37940 and below same could see a test of 37754 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38249, a move above could see prices testing 38372.  

Trading Ideas:   

*   Silver trading range for the day is 37754-38372.

*    Silver gained as softer-than-expected inflation indicators eased concerns over an acceleration of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve ahead of the consumer price index.

*   Producer price inflation for July was unchanged from the previous month, with the annualized increase easing from 3.4% to 3.3%, according to data.

*   Still, market participants were likely to remain cautious as they await the release of the more widely followed consumer price index for July.

Crudeoil

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 0.7% at 4602 reflecting concerns about Iranian crude supplies as the U.S. hit Tehran with new sanctions, halting Wednesday's declines. The United States on Tuesday reimposed sanctions on Iran, the third-biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The renewed sanctions will not directly target Iranian oil until November, although U.S. President Donald Trump has said he wants as many countries as possible to cut their imports of Iranian crude to zero.

As part of its most recent retaliation against Washington in the mounting trade dispute, China will impose tariffs of 25 percent on a further $16 billion in U.S. imports, which will affect trade in goods from fuel and steel products to autos and medical equipment. Crude oil will be exempt. The ongoing trade war is rattling global markets and investors fear any slowdown in the world's two largest economies would slash demand for commodities.

On top of the impact on the broader global economy, there is growing worry in the crude oil market about Chinese demand. Crude imports picked up in July after two months of decline, but were still among the lowest this year due to a drop-off in demand from smaller independent refineries. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, meanwhile, reported that crude inventories fell 1.4 million barrels in the latest week, less than half the 3.3 million-barrel draw had expected.

In another sign that exporters are preparing for slower demand from some of the big Asian buyers, Iraq cut its official selling price for September cargoes of Basra Light crude for its Asian customers. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at 4567 and below same could see a test of 4532 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4636, a move above could see prices testing 4670.            

Trading Ideas:   

*    Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4532-4670.

*  Crude oil gained reflecting concerns about Iranian crude supplies as the U.S. hit Tehran with new sanctions, halting Wednesday's declines.

*  China's crude imports recovered slightly in July after two months of decline, but were still among the lowest this year due to a drop-off in demand.

*  China took 8.48 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up from 8.18 million bpd a year earlier and June's 8.36 million bpd, customs data showed.

Natural gas

Natural gas traded in range following the release of a government report showing a weekly storage build that was in line with estimates. Warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States for the next 8-14 days. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities likely added 46 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug. 3, which was the fifth week in a row that injections were smaller than normal.

 The increase for the week ended Aug. 3 boosted stockpiles to 2.354 trillion cubic feet (tcf), leaving inventories 19.5 percent below the five-year average of 2.926 tcf for this time of year and the lowest for the week since 2003. Despite recent price gains, overall futures volatility has remained relatively low since February as the market cannot decide whether to fall because production is at record levels or rise because the amount of gas in storage is 20 percent below the five-year (2013-2017) average.

Temperatures across much of the country, however, have held steady at above-normal levels since the start of June and are forecast to remain higher than normal through at least late August. Production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged a record high 81.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) over the past 30 days. On a daily basis, output rose to an all-time high of 81.9 bcfd on Monday, according to data.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.09% to settled at 6285 while prices up 1.1 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 202.2 and below same could see a test of 201.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 204, a move above could see prices testing 204.7.      

Trading Ideas:   

*  Naturalgas trading range for the day is 201.1-204.7.

*  Natural gas traded in range following the release of a government report showing a weekly storage build that was in line with estimates.

* Warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States for the next 8-14 days.

* The amount of natural gas in US storage facilities increased 46 Bcf to 2.354 Tcf in the week that ended August 3, the US Energy Information Administration reported

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.75% at 421.15 gained on short covering as prices moved higher and were set to end the week in positive territory as the prospect of strikes at copper mines in Chile, including Escondida, the world's largest, drew nearer. The main union at Chile's Caserones copper mine said on Wednesday that a last round of labour negotiations with mine operator Lumina Copper had broken down and that a strike was imminent. The main union at Chile’s Caserones copper mine said on Wednesday that a last round of labor negotiations with mine operator Lumina Copper had broken down and that a strike was imminent.

Last night the dollar index jumped 0.54% to 95.61 overnight as investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would continue to support the currency. Better-than-expected data on US initial jobless claims and generally rising producer prices also helped the dollar hold its gains. LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday. Data from China shown China’s PPI, a gauge of factory gate inflation, rose 4.6% in July from a year earlier, compared with an acceleration of 4.7% in June, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday.

On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.1% in July, compared with a 0.3% growth in June. The CPI rose 2.1% from a year earlier in July, faster than June's 1.9% growth. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in July after it edged down 0.1% in June. Now technically market is under short covering and getting support at 418.1 and below same could see a test of 415 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 426.1, a move above could see prices testing 431.               

Trading Ideas:   

*   Copper trading range for the day is 415-431.

*    Copper prices gained supported by higher-than-expected Chinese consumer price index and producer price index for July.

*   China’s exports growth unexpectedly accelerated in July despite fresh U.S. tariffs, while its trade surplus with the United States remained near record highs.

*    China’s imports of copper concentrate rose to an all-time high last month as Chinese smelters ramped up purchases to feed their growing capacity.

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled down -0.61% at 179.85 on fresh selling while prices gained sharply in morning session tracking LME Zinc which gained to test $2,614.50 as China's stock markets and yuan gained on Thursday, helping to lift industrial metals, even after China the day before said it was slapping additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of U.S. imports, the latest step in a worsening trade dispute. China is the world's biggest metals consumer.

While upside was capped as China's factory price inflation cooled in July amid a slowdown in economic growth. Economists expect punitive tariffs on U.S goods to push price growth higher in months ahead. Weakness in the dollar index is helping boost metals prices already yesterday morning. The greenback has struggled to garner bids since the Monday August 6 high of 95.53. A technical break below psychological price level at 95.00 could trigger more selling. This bodes well for both the base and precious metals prices as well as commodities currencies to wiggle higher.

Ever since the People's Bank of China (PBoC) took steps on Friday August 3 to boost forwards foreign exchange trading requirements to 20%, the Chinese yuan has firmed to 6.8164. Last night the dollar index jumped 0.54% to 95.61 overnight as investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would continue to support the currency. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.32% to settled at 4391 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 177.9 and below same could see a test of 176 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 183.4, a move above could see prices testing 187.          

Trading Ideas:   

*    Zinc trading range for the day is 176-187.

*    Zinc dropped tracking weakness in LME prices due to a rapid rise in the dollar.

*    The U.S. Trade Representative’s office said the U.S. would begin collecting 25 percent tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese goods later this month.

*   China's foreign exchange reserves increased in July, figures from People's Bank of China showed.

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled down -0.85% at 952.10 while prices gained in morning session after the dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies as its recent rally fuelled by U.S.-China trade tensions appeared to fizzle. A fundamental tightness in the nickel market could also add more support to nickel prices. As the Philippines government confirmed that just 23 out of the 27 mines that operate in the world’s second-largest nickel-producing country will continue to operate.

The remaining four will likely close. Also Stainless steel price momentum slowed down slightly this month. However, both steel and nickel remain in a bull market. Therefore, buying organizations may want to follow the market closely for opportunities to buy on the dips. Last night the dollar index jumped 0.54% to 95.61 overnight as investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would continue to support the currency. Better-than-expected data on US initial jobless claims and generally rising producer prices also helped the dollar hold its gains.

LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday.  Day ahead key things to watch today include China’s total social financing and M2 money supply in July, US consumer inflation in July and Baker Hughes data on US weekly oil-rig count. Now technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.69% to settled at 7401 while prices down -8.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 945.1 and below same could see a test of 938.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 964.2, a move above could see prices testing 976.4.  

Trading Ideas:   

* Nickel trading range for the day is 938.2-976.4.

*  Nickel dropped as investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would continue to support the dollar.

*  Nickel production rose 4.7% on the month and stood at 12,400 mt in July, this is down 9.7% year on year.

*   Discounts of high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) to refined nickel prices are expected to widen this month due to an increasing supply of the former.

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled down -1.49% at 142.45 traded in wider range, while prices gained in morning session tracking Shanghai aluminium prices which rose nearly 2.5 percent to a near two-month closing high on Thursday, as a strike affecting Alcoa's alumina refineries in Australia and warnings of shutdowns by Rusal supported prices.

The Alcoa plants account for around 9.3 million tonnes of capacity or some 8 percent of the world's supply of alumina. Alcoa said on Thursday it did not expect any impact on its production from the industrial action running until Aug. 17. All other metals rose on a buoyant day for the complex, with aluminium trading volumes at 437,570 lots, well above the 30-day average of 170,423 lots. Top metals consumer China's factory price inflation cooled in July, amid a slowdown in economic growth, according to official data released on Thursday, although the tit-for-tat import tariffs imposed by China and the United States on each other's goods have yet to stoke price pressures.

Last night the dollar index jumped 0.54% to 95.61 overnight as investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would continue to support the currency. Better-than-expected data on US initial jobless claims and generally rising producer prices also helped the dollar hold its gains. LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday. 

Day ahead key things to watch today include China’s total social financing and M2 money supply in July, US consumer inflation in July and Baker Hughes data on US weekly oil-rig count. Now technically now Aluminium is getting support at 140.8 and below same could see a test of 139.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 145.5, a move above could see prices testing 148.6.               

Trading Ideas:   

*   Aluminium trading range for the day is 139.2-148.6.

*  Aluminium dropped on profit booking as the impact of strikes at Alcoa’s alumina refinery in Western Australia was smaller than expected.

*    Alcoa workers in Western Australia have walked out indefinitely over an enterprise agreement dispute with the aluminium maker, the Australian Workers’ Union said.

* The Alcoa plants account for around 9.3 million tonnes of capacity or some 8 percent of the world’s supply of alumina.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 3.06% at 1634.9 due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at 400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier.

According to preliminary estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition. Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around 80% to the total global mentha oil production.

Total global production stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between 30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes.    Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1870.40 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.28.00/-.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.34% to settled at 1465 while prices up 48.6 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1609 and below same could see a test of 1583.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1652.4, a move above could see prices testing 1669.9.    

Trading Ideas:   

*    Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1583.1-1669.9.

*    Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1870.40 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.28.00/-.

*  Mentha oil prices rallied due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters.

*   Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies.

*  Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users.

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled down by -0.21% at 3345 on late profit booking after prices gained tracking firmness in overseas prices with the market underpinned by forecasts of hot and dry weather in parts of the U.S. Midwest. However, upside seen limited on projection of favourable weather triggered expectation of higher supply while demand from crushers is declining. 

There was additional support for the soybean market from soaring Chinese domestic prices, which fuelled expectations that Beijing will accelerate buying of U.S. supplies despite a trade war between the two nations. U.S. soybean shipments to the world's top importer could revive later in the year after China draws down available supplies in top exporter Brazil.

China’s soybean imports in July fell from a month ago, customs data showed, as processors slowed purchases after building up a record inventory of the oilseed in preparation for hefty import tariffs on U.S. shipments introduced last month. China, the world’s largest soy buyer, brought in 8.01 million tonnes of soybeans in July, down 8 percent from 8.70 million tonnes in June, figures from the General Administration of Customs of China showed.

The figures were down 20.6 percent from last year’s 10 million tonnes, the highest arrivals on record as ports at the time cleared a months-long backlog of cargoes. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -35 Rupees to 3503 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.33% to settled at 51660 while prices down -7 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 3330 and below same could see a test of 3315 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3362, a move above could see prices testing 3379. 

Trading Ideas:   

*  Soyabean trading range for the day is 3315-3379.

*   Soyabean dropped on late profit booking after prices gained tracking firmness in overseas prices with the market underpinned by forecasts of hot and dry weather.

*    Indian government increased export subsidy on soymeal from 7% to 10% to make it competitive in international market.

*   China’s soybean imports in July fell from a month ago, customs data showed.

*   At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -35 Rupees to 3503 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled down by -0.32% at 731.7 amid selling pressure and lack of support due to weak demand in spot markets. Demand for soy oil remained muted in the spot markets, despite beginning of festival season. However, report of good stocks with importers put pressure on prices. Increase in acreage of soybean and hopes of higher output may put pressure on prices. India's soybean sowing grew 10.62% to 10.95 million hectare due to favourable weather conditions and higher prices in the open market.

Stocks of edible oil in ports and pipeline are estimated at 2.52 mt as on July 1 compared to 2.28 mt a year ago while lower than 2.66 mt in May. As per the data from SEA, India's vegetable oil imports during June dropped 23% to 10.4 lakh tons (lt) compared to 13.4 lt in the same period a year ago. While imports for Nov-June fell by 2.2% to 96.4 lt compared to 98.6 lt on year.

Edible oil imports fell to 10.07 lt in June compared to 12.9 lt in the same period a year ago on lower crude oil prices. Soyoil degummed imports fell marginally to 288,519 tons compared to 290,904 tons. For the second fortnight of July, the base import price of crude soyoil has been cut to $743 per tn from $750 per tn by the govt which is lowest since Jan 2016. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 736.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.08% to settled at 41140 while prices down -2.35 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 731 and below same could see a test of 729 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 735, a move above could see prices testing 737.          

Trading Ideas:   

*   Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 729-737.

*   Ref soyoil dropped amid selling pressure and lack of support due to weak demand in spot markets.

*   However, report of good stocks with importers put pressure on prices.

*   Increase in acreage of soybean and hopes of higher output may put pressure on prices.

*    At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 736.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -0.27% at 593.5 tracking weakness in spot demand and overseas prices amid higher domestic stocks. Palm oil end-July stockpiles is expected to rise 7 percent to 2.34 million tonnes, while production was seen up 15.9 percent to 1.54 million tonnes. Meanwhile, exports were also forecast to gain 0.9 percent to 1.14 million tonnes.

Malaysian palm oil prices are set to average 2,410 ringgit ($591) a tonne in 2018, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) forecast, down about 14 percent from last year's average prices. The MPOC also forecast palm oil output in Malaysia, the world's second largest producer, at 20.3 million tonnes in 2018, above last year's 19.92 million tonnes due to better yields. "For the second half of 2018, palm oil production is expected to be higher, contributed by the peak months in October and November," the MPOC said. Malaysia's palm oil stocks are expected to have risen to their highest in five months at end-July, a second straight gain as output growth outpaced exports.

Palm oil stocks in the world's No.2 producer grew 7 percent in July to 2.34 million tonnes from the previous month, highest since February, according to a median estimate from eight planters.  Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.5% to settled at 6671 while prices down -1.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 591 and below same could see a test of 588.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 595.6, a move above could see prices testing 597.6.   

Trading Ideas:   

*  CPO trading range for the day is 588.4-597.6.

*  Crude palm oil dropped tracking weakness in spot demand and overseas prices amid higher domestic stocks.

*  Palm oil end-July stockpiles is expected to rise 7 percent to 2.34 million tonnes, while production was seen up 15.9 percent to 1.54 million tonnes.

*  Malaysian palm oil prices are set to average 2,410 ringgit ($591) a tonne in 2018, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) forecasted.

*   Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 1.60 rupees and settled at 589.80 rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -0.73% at 4104 tracking weakness in spot demand on profit booking after prices gained amid lower arrivals in the spot markets. However, millers are reluctant to make fresh deals as demand from oil mills have not picked up and there is ample availability in the market due to poor crushing during June and July. Crushing of mustard seed fell for the second month in a row in July to 450,000 ton across India from 650,000 ton a month ago. NAFED offered 9,724 ton of mustard seed for sale in various markets of Gujarat and could not find buyers due to high base prices.

India's rapeseed meal export swelled to 369,646 ton during April-July 2018 from 165,609 ton a year ago on the back of good buying from Vietnam and Thailand, data from Solvent Extractors Association of India showed. Mustard production in the country is seen at 6.6 mln tn in 2017-18 (Jul-Jun), marginally lower than 6.7 mln tn harvested in the previous year. A fall in area in 2017-18 can be attributed as the main reason for a smaller crop.

Acreage under mustard in the country was at 6.7 mln ha against 7.1 ml ha in 2016-17. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -12.9 Rupees to end at 4334 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.67% to settled at 116480 while prices down -30 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 4088 and below same could see a test of 4072 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4133, a move above could see prices testing 4162.       

Trading Ideas:   

*    Rmseed trading range for the day is 4072-4162.

*  Mustard seed prices dropped tracking weakness in spot demand on profit booking after prices gained amid lower arrivals in the spot markets.

*   NAFED offered 9,724 ton of mustard seed for sale in various markets of Gujarat and could not find buyers due to high base prices.

*   NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks dropped by 1115 tonnes to 75022 tonnes.

*  In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -12.9 Rupees to end at 4334 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.8% at 7196 on sluggish demand and hopes of higher sowing. Demand for turmeric in the local mandis is sluggish from traders as farmers are not selling good quality product. Turmeric prices were lower as sowing is expected to be higher this year and stocks are comfortable. In Telangana, turmeric acreage rose to 46,692 hectare until August 1 from 41,715 hectare a year ago, State Government data showed.

Overall area under turmeric may increase by 10-15% yearly mainly due to rise in acreage in Telangana. Spot turmeric prices decreased at the markets in Erode as there were limited bags offered for sale. Only 2,500 bags of turmeric arrived and 70 per cent were sold. Though the traders did not receive any fresh upcountry orders, they purchased good number of bags for their local supply as medium quality turmeric arrived for sale.

Finger variety was down at the Regulated Marketing Committee by Rs. 300 a quintal and Rs. 250 a quintal at the Erode Cooperative Marketing Society, while root variety lost Rs. 500 and Rs. 200 at the Regulated Marketing Committee and at the other two markets respectively. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, the finger turmeric was sold at Rs. 5,388-8,333 a quintal; root variety at Rs. 5,055-7,377. Of the 2,171 bags on offer, 897 found takers.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7215 Rupees dropped -60 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.03% to settled at 16390 while prices down -58 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7160 and below same could see a test of 7124 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7252, a move above could see prices testing 7308.    

Trading Ideas:   

*  Turmeric trading range for the day is 7124-7308.

*  Turmeric prices dropped on sluggish demand and hopes of higher sowing.

*   Turmeric prices were lower as sowing is expected to be higher this year and stocks are comfortable.

*   NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 20 tonnes to 5215 tonnes.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7215 Rupees dropped -60 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -0.02% at 20110 on profit booking after prices gained on robust demand and lower output this year. Jeera demand in the physical market is robust, ahead of festive season which has extended the gain in prices. Jeera prices were higher on lower output this season while the stock is also less. India's cumin seed output fell to 489,000 ton from 503,000 ton a year ago and as a result stocks with traders and farmers are said to be lower.

According to export data released by Commerce ministry, exports in May surged 96% on year to 27,790 tonnes. Moreover, country exports about 87,115 tonnes of Jeera during Mar-May 2018. Jeera arrivals during July are pegged at 8,700 tonnes compared to 3,800 tonnes last year for same period. India is expected to export a record 175,000 tn of jeera in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar), primarily because supply from its competitors has taken a hit making it the sole supplier of the largely sought after spice, trade officials said.

Supply of jeera from Syria and Turkey--India's main rivals in the global jeera export market--has been hit both in terms of quantity and quality due to adverse weather, according to exporters. Having hit a record high of 155,000 tn in 2014-15, jeera exports fell to 97,790 tn in 2015-16, and 143,670 tn in the year ended March, according to data from Spices Board India.   In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 22.4 Rupees to end at 19780.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.6% to settled at 7752 while prices down -5 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 19945 and below same could see a test of 19785 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 20270, a move above could see prices testing 20435.      

Trading Ideas:   

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 19785-20435.

*     Jeera settled  flat on profit booking after prices gained on robust demand and lower output this year.

* Jeera prices were higher on lower output this season while the stock is also less.

*   NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 927 tonnes to 3436 tonnes.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 22.4 Rupees to end at 19780.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cardamom

Cardamom on MCX settled up by 2.85% at 1123.4 as there are fears of damage to standing crops and delay in new crop supplies. Rains have also impacted the new crops and supplies from the fresh crop would get momentum by the third week of this month, though scattered supplies have begun to pour in some of the auction centres. Stockists did not make buying on hopes of higher output and early commencement of new crop supplies. Heavy monsoon rainfall that has caused damage to plantation thereby resulting in crop loss and downward revision of earlier made higher crop estimates.

At the Vandanmedu auction centre, supplies were at 21 MTs; lower by 22 MTs that traded at avg. auction prices of Rs.982/kg, higher by Rs.31 while max price superior quality material fetched was at Rs.1256/kg. According to Spices Board, cardamom exports during 2017-18 hit all time high at 5680 MTs valued at Rs.60908 lakhs. Harvesting activities are also likely to be delayed due to heavy rains that will lead to delayed arrivals of fresh crop to auctions.

Light to moderate rainfall is most likely in many places of Idukki district until 9th Jul. Despite record higher exports in 2017-18, exports figure in 2018-19 may not touch that volume as there are issues regarding pesticide to the stocks exported to Saudi Arabia. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 106 while prices up 31.1 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1107.2 and below same could see a test of 1091.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1132.2, a move above could see prices testing 1141.1. 

Trading Ideas:   

*   Cardamom trading range for the day is 1091.1-1141.1.

* Cardamom prices gained as there are fears of damage to standing crops and delay in new crop supplies.

* Stockists did not make buying on hopes of higher output and early commencement of new crop supplies.

* Heavy monsoon rainfall that has caused damage to plantation thereby resulting in crop loss and downward revision of earlier made higher crop estimates.

*   Cardamom prices in spot market dropped by 5.30 rupees and settled at 1072.20 rupees. 

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.04% at 23970 on anticipation of lower production due to reports of pink bollworm in major producing belts of Maharashtra. A few enquiries for exports, particularly from China, is supporting the market. China is expected to purchase more cotton from India as country's buying is fuelled by 25% tax on fibre coming from United States, reports said.

China may purchase 2.5-3.5 million bales in November, December and January. Meanwhile, cotton demand for about 4 million bales is expected from Bangladesh and Vietnam.  Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated domestic cotton consumption at 32.4 million bales, while exports are seen at 7 million bales. Cotton sowing in Gujarat, the largest grower of the fibre crop reached 2.65 million hectares as on August 6, which is about 10,000 hectares more than last year. The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) has said that India’s cotton exports are likely to increase by 20% during the current cotton season of October, 2017 to September, 2018, over last year. It added that exports are expected to touch 70 lakh bales by September this year.

From October, 2017 to April 2018, the total amount of cotton exported from India was 51.21 lakh bales. The board has estimated the cotton production for the current cotton season 2017-18 (October 2017 to September 2018) at 370 lakh bales. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.99% to settled at 3994 while prices up 10 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 23870 and below same could see a test of 23770 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 24050, a move above could see prices testing 24130.       

Trading Ideas:   

*   Cotton trading range for the day is 23770-24130.

*  Cotton gained on anticipation of lower production due to reports of pink bollworm in major producing belts of Maharashtra.

*   A few enquiries for exports, particularly from China, is supporting the market.

*    Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated domestic cotton consumption at 32.4 million bales, while exports are seen at 7 million bales.

*  Cotton prices in spot market gained by 50.00 rupees and settled at 23380.00 rupees. 

 -www.kediaadvisory.com            

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