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Published on 21/01/2019 11:15:09 AM | Source: Alpha Commodity Ltd

Naturalgas on MCX settled down -3.91% at 238.2 on a forecast for less - Alpha Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Alpha Commodity Ltd

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Gold

Gold on MCX settled down -0.55% at 32091 as equities and the U.S. dollar got a lift from investors taking on more risk due to growing hopes for a resolution in the China-U.S. trade war. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin mulled a tariff rollback during trade discussions with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, scheduled for Jan 30. The dollar was headed for its first weekly gain in five, unfettered by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams' stance that the longest government shutdown was taxing. Gold demand turned fragile in India as local prices jumped to their highest level in 2-1/2-years, while traders in major buying centres in Asia pinned hopes on purchases ahead of the approaching Lunar New Year. Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $7 an ounce over official domestic prices this week, up from last week’s discount of $6. India’s gold imports in December fell 24.3 percent from a year ago to $2.57 billion, trade ministry data showed earlier in the week. Premiums in top consumer China stood mostly unchanged from last week at $6 to $9 an ounce. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net long position in Comex gold in the week to Dec. 18, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said. Speculators raised their net long position in gold by 14,317 contracts to 24,569 contracts, CFTC data showed, to its highest net long position in six months. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.26% to settled at 9337 while prices down -177 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 31991 and below same could see a test of 31891 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 32255, a move above could see prices testing 32419.

 

Silver

Silver on MCX settled down -0.51% at 39198 as investors pushed into riskier assets, including stocks, fueled by hope of potential progress toward a resolution in the U.S.-China trade dispute. Investors are optimistic about the U.S.-China trade deal despite the fact the Treasury has denied all the recent rumors. Investors were also increasingly wary that a U.S. partial government shutdown, in its 28th day, could deliver a more lasting impact to economic growth in the first quarter, although reaction in markets has been so far subdued. U.S. consumer sentiment tumbled in early January to its lowest level since President Donald Trump was elected more than two years ago as an ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government and financial market volatility stoked fears of a sharp deceleration in economic growth. The drop in confidence reported by the University of Michigan is the clearest sign yet that the impasse in Washington over Trump's demands for $5.7 billion to help build a wall on the United States' border with Mexico was negatively impacting the economy. Trump has touted high consumer confidence as an indication of the good job he is doing on the economy. Hedge funds and money managers switched to a net long position in silver in the week to Dec. 18, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said. Silver speculators switched to a net long position of 1,912 lots, adding 10,879 lots, CFTC said. This was the first time hedge funds and money managers held a net long position in silver since July. Technically now Silver is getting support at 39009 and below same could see a test of 38820 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39485, a move above could see prices testing 39772.

 

Crude oil

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 3.49% at 3854 after a report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) showed its production fell sharply last month, easing fears about prolonged oversupply. OPEC, along with some other producers including Russia, cut oil output sharply in December before a new accord to limit supply took effect on Jan. 1, it said, suggesting that producers have made a strong start to averting a glut in 2019 as a slowing economy curbs demand. OPEC said in its monthly report that its oil output fell by 751,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December to 31.58 million bpd, the biggest month-on-month drop in almost two years. But tempering that support for prices, OPEC also cut its forecast for average daily demand for its crude in 2019 to 30.83 million barrels, down 910,000 bpd from the 2018 average. Undermining OPEC's efforts to tighten oil markets has been a surge in crude output from the United States, which increased by more than 2 million bpd in the last year to an unprecedented 11.9 million bpd. U.S. crude output grew by 200,000 barrels from a week earlier to reach a record high of 11.9 million bpd last week. In a separate report, the EIA said U.S. production could possibly hit 13 million bpd by 2020. The EIA also reported outsize builds in U.S. gasoline inventories and distillate stockpiles that offset a weekly drop in crude in storage. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 105.43% to settled at 9275 while prices up 130 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting support at 3778 and below same could see a test of 3701 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3902, a move above could see prices testing 3949.

 

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled down -3.91% at 238.2 on a forecast for less cold weather next week and reduced concerns about fuel in storage despite an extension of the frigid temperatures expected in the last week of January into February. With slightly less cold expected, Refinitiv, reduced its demand projection for next week for the Lower 48 U.S. states to 119.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) from 120.0 bcfd. That compared with 116.4 bcfd during the warmer weather this week and a projected 127.6 bcfd for the last week of January, when extreme cold is expected to blanket much of the country. Colder forecasts for the next few weeks renewed concerns about low stockpiles and revived the extreme volatility seen at the end of 2018 after the market slumbered for several days at the start of the year. The weeks of warmer-than-usual weather in December and early January allowed utilities to cut the vast storage deficit from 21 percent a few weeks ago to just 11 percent currently. Gas output in the Lower 48 has averaged near a record high of 86.9 bcfd over the past 30 days. Cme Raises Natural Gas Henry Hub Future (Ng) Margins By 9.5 Percent To $4,600 Per Contract From $4,200 For Feb. 2019. Cme Says Initial Margin Rates Are 110 Percent Of These Levels. Cme Says Rates Will Be Effective After The Close Of Business On Jan. 18. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.7% to settled at 2346 while prices down - 9.7 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 229.7 and below same could see a test of 221.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 245.5, a move above could see prices testing 252.7.

 

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 1.44% at 429.35 on optimism that the United States and top metals consumer China are closer to resolving their longrunning trade dispute. Prices also seen support as market sentiment improved on hopes of a second Brexit referendum. China's move to inject liquidity into the financial system boosted expectations of higher demand in the world's top industrial metals consumer. The People's Bank of China is injecting 250 billion yuan ($37 billion) through seven-day reverse bond repurchase agreements and 150 billion yuan through 28-day reverse repos. Chile's Cochilco state copper commission maintained its average price prediction of $3.05 per pound for 2019, rising to $3.08 for 2020, amid the continuing U.S.-China trade war and further potential volatility because of Brexit. Cochilco said it saw production at 5.941 million tonnes for 2019, up 1.6 percent from 5.845 million in 2018, and a 227,000 tonne deficit in the global market for 2019, dropping to 185,000 in 2020. Chile is the world's top producer of the red metal. The commission said it expected demand from China to nudge up 2.5 percent in 2019, along with a 10 percent uptick in demand from India given an uptick in its economic growth and local foundry operations. Planned maintenance at major copper smelters this year is expected to reduce supply of the refined metal used widely in the power and construction industries, further tightening the market and pushing premiums higher. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.26% to settled at 13507 while prices up 6.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 425.6 and below same could see a test of 421.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 431.9, a move above could see prices testing 434.5.

 

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled up 2.11% at 838.7 amid falling stockpiles and a tightening of time spreads suggested an undersupplied market. Nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses at around 200,000 tonnes are down from more than 360,000 tonnes at the start of 2018 and at their lowest level since mid-2013. the drawdowns were partly due to metal being moved to non-exchange warehouses, rather than because it has been consumed. The discount of cash nickel compared to three-month metal rose to $67 from $9, which was the smallest discount in nearly two years. Stockpiles in exchange warehouses are near multi-year lows and the price of cash nickel surged this week compared with contracts for later delivery, suggesting a shortage of nearby material. The nickel market will likely be fairly balanced in 2019 after a small deficit of 40,000 tonnes in 2018, he added, predicting prices around $11,500 at the end of this year. Exacerbating a squeeze on the LME, a single entity held between 40 and 49 percent of nickel warrants and there were large holders of long and short positions in the January futures contract. Battling a slowdown that could curtail demand for metals, China signalled more stimulus measures in the near term as it aims to achieve "a good start to 2019". government of Hebei, China’s top steelmaking province, targeted the removal of all steel mills from Zhangjiakou and Langfang city in 2019. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.83% to settled at 8281 while prices up 17.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 828.2 and below same could see a test of 817.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 846, a move above could see prices testing 853.3.

 

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 2.04% at 185.3 amid hopes on eased US-China trade tension and LME inventories shrink. China's refined zinc production saw its steepest plunge since 2013 last year amid tight raw material supply, longer maintenance periods and the relocation of the country's top smelter, according to Antaike, the research arm of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. But a recent spike in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) in China, the top producer of the metal used to galvanise steel, could lead to a rebound this year. December output slipped by 4.4 percent on a daily basis from November to a monthly total of 393,000 tonnes as Zhuzhou Smelter Group, the country's top producer, went ahead with a planned relocation within southern China's Hunan province. Moderate inflows of imported zinc grew social inventories, but downstream stockpiling ahead of CNY capped inventory gains. Social inventories in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin changed little on the week, and stood at 107,200 mt as of Friday January 18, up some 2,500 mt from Friday January 11 and up 500 mt from Monday January 14, data showed. Next week, downstream plants will begin to close for the holiday and this will slow purchases, which will further expand social stocks. China's move to inject liquidity into the financial system boosted expectations of higher demand in the world's top industrial metals consumer. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.19% to settled at 3581 while prices up 3.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 182.5 and below same could see a test of 179.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 187.2, a move above could see prices testing 189.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled up 1.26% at 133.1 as China announced more stimulus, with the country's central bank injecting more cash into the financial system, bringing the amount for the week to 1.14 trillion yuan ($168.74 billion). Aluminium stocks held at three major Japanese ports had risen 7.2 percent to 316,800 tonnes by the end of December from the previous month. A vote by U.S. lawmakers cleared the way for sanctions to be lifted on major producer Rusal, potentially increasing supply. The U.S. Senate on Wednesday rejected legislation to keep sanctions on companies linked to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, including aluminium firm Rusal. In December, the U.S. Treasury said it would lift sanctions on Rusal, the world's largest aluminium producer outside China. China’s's aluminium exports in 2018 rose 20.9 percent from a year earlier to a record high, according to customs data, as sanctions by the United States on Russian producer Rusal spurred demand for Chinese metal. The world's top aluminium producer exported 5.8 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products last year, the General Administration of Customs said, despite a 10 percent tariff on aluminium imports into the United States imposed in March. Shortages caused by the U.S. sanctions on Russia's United Company Rusal, announced in April, led to a spike in international aluminium prices, allowing Chinese suppliers to cash in and fill the void. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.77% to settled at 4824 while prices up 1.65 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 132 and below same could see a test of 130.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 133.7, a move above could see prices testing 134.3.

 

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