MENU

Published on 12/07/2018 12:32:57 PM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Jeera trading range for the day is 18210-18790 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

Gold

Gold on MCX settled down -0.71% at 30310 after the United States threatened to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. The Trump administration raised the stakes in its trade dispute with China, threatening 10 percent tariffs on a list of $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. China accused the United States of bullying and warned it would hit back after the Trump administration raised the stakes in their trade dispute, threatening 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods in a move that rattled global markets.

A struggle by employers to fill jobs shows the U.S. economy is strong, and the rise in housing and stock prices is not a sign of a risky build-up in leverage in the financial system, the head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank said. European Central Bank policymakers are split over when the ECB might raise interest rates next year, with some saying an increase is possible as early as July 2019 and others ruling out a move until autumn.

US data showed producer prices rose 0.3% in June, slowing down from 0.5% in May and beating estimates of 0.2%, while core prices rose 0.3%, same as before and also beating forecasts of 0.2%. Russia produced 92.56 tonnes of gold in the first five months of 2018, up from 90.39 tonnes in the same period in 2017, the finance ministry said. The US consumer price index (CPI) in June and its weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits are the key factors to watch today. Technically now Gold is getting support at 30229 and below same could see a test of 30148 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30453, a move above could see prices testing 30596.

Trading Ideas:

*  Gold trading range for the day is 30148-30596.

*  Gold fell after the United States threatened to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

*  The Trump administration raised the stakes in its trade dispute with China, threatening 10 percent tariffs on a list of $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.

*  European Central Bank policymakers are split over when the ECB might raise interest rates next year, with some saying an increase is possible as early as July 2019.

Silver

Silver on MCX settled down -1.26% at 39290 as the dollar firmed after the Trump administration threatened to impose additional tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. The 10% tariffs will not take effect immediately but will undergo a two-month review process, according to a government statement. China accused the United States of bullying and warned it would hit back after the Trump administration raised the stakes in their trade dispute, threatening 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods in a move that rattled global markets. The US producers price index (PPI) in June gained 0.3% from May, and rose 3.4% from a year ago.

The figure increased slightly more than expected amid gains in the cost of services and motor vehicles, leading to the biggest annual increase in six and a half years. June's core PPI, a key gauge of underlying producer price pressures that excludes food, energy and trade services rose 0.3% month on month, and went up 2.7% year on year. Inflation is gradually growing against the backdrop of a labour market close to or at full employment. European Central Bank policymakers are split over when the ECB might raise interest rates next year, with some saying an increase is possible as early as July 2019 and others ruling out a move until autumn, according to several sources.

The US consumer price index (CPI) in June and its weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits are the key factors to watch today. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.21% to settled at 18763, now Silver is getting support at 39085 and below same could see a test of 38879 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39623, a move above could see prices testing 39955.

Trading Ideas:

*  Silver trading range for the day is 38879-39955.

*  Silver prices fell as the dollar firmed after the Trump administration threatened to impose additional tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

*  The 10% tariffs will not take effect immediately but will undergo a two-month review process, according to a government statement.

*  The US producers price index (PPI) in June gained 0.3% from May, and rose 3.4% from a year ago.

Crudeoil

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -3.37% at 4900 as raising OPEC output, and the reopening of terminals in Libya dented investor expectations for a global supply shortage. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by 12.633 million barrels for the week ended July 6, confounding expectations for a draw of 4.489 million barrels, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The large draw in crude supplies came as imports fell by 1.315 million barrels a day (bpd), and output remained roughly flat at 10.9 million bpd, the EIA said.

The production shutdown at Canada's Syncrude - which has capacity to produce 350,000 bpd of oil – continued to weigh on North American crude supplies. The mostly bullish inventory report failed to lift sentiment amid investor concerns about an increase in global supplies as OPEC output increased last month, while Libya resumed export activities, which could see as much as 0.7 million bpd return to the market. The announcement by Libya's National Oil Corp that four export terminals were being reopened, ending a standoff that had shut down most of Libya's oil output, was the catalyst for a correction.

The reopening allows the return of as much as 850,000 barrels per day of crude into international markets. OPEC output rose above 32.3 million bpd in June, up 173,000 bpd from the previous month, according to OPEC's monthly report. The increase was led by a rise in Saudi output to levels not seen since the output-cut agreement in 2016. Saudi Arabia reported that it pumped nearly 10.5 million bpd last month, up from about 10 million bpd in May. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at 4824 and below same could see a test of 4748 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5030, a move above could see prices testing 5160.

Trading Ideas:

*  Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4748-5160.

*  Crude oil dropped as raising OPEC output, and the reopening of terminals in Libya dented investor expectations for a global supply shortage.

*  Inventories of U.S. crude fell by 12.633 million barrels for the week ended July 6, confounding expectations for a draw of 4.489 million barrels

*  PEC forecast world demand for its crude will decline next year as growth in consumption slows and rivals pump more, pointing to a market surplus returning.

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled up 1.51% at 195.10 trading slightly higher early Wednesday in what is believed to be a small technical adjustment to a market in the midst of steep decline. The early price action suggests some short-covering and profit-taking throughout the day as traders begin adjusting positions ahead of Thursday’s weekly storage report. Prices continue to be pressured by rising production which is offsetting the lingering demand from the summer heat and the on-going supply deficit. Reports show that natural gas production in the Lower 48 states jumped 1.5 Bcf/d during the final three weeks in June.

This is the best explanation for the rapid sell-off despite the large storage deficit. Essentially, the natural gas market shifted from a weather-driven market to a production-driven market. This turned the tide on the bulls, forcing them to give up hope for $4/MMBtu prices in mid-June even while forecasts still called for an extended heat dome over most of the United States into mid-July. At current production levels and with temperatures expected to drop back to more normal levels, traders are now increasing short-side bets that the current supply deficit will be shored up before the start of winter.

Now technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -25.08% to settled at 3298 while prices up 2.9 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 192.8 and below same could see a test of 190.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.2, a move above could see prices testing 197.4.

Trading Ideas:

*  Naturalgas trading range for the day is 190.6-197.4.

*  Natural gas rose as production showed signs of slipping ahead of EIA storage report.

*  Prices could get a boost as Donald Trump shamed Germany for getting their natural gas from Russia.

*  The weather over the next 2-weeks is expected to be mixed with warm weather in both the east and west coasts, and normal weather in the mid-west.

Copper

Copper on MCX settled down -2.99% at 420.15 tracking weakness from LME Copper which hit at lowest in a year as US tariffs hit metals prices. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange dropped as much as 4 percent to $6,081 a tonne, its lowest since July last year, before recovering to $6,146 by down 2.9 percent. Base metals prices were down across the board following the overnight release of a list of an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods on which the United States is considering imposing 10% tariffs. The tariffs will not go into effect immediately, but will undergo a two-month review process, with hearings on August 20-23.

The announcement of further tariffs reignited fears that a widening trade war between the world’s two largest economies could bring about a slowdown in global economic growth. Last night the US dollar index gained 0.66% to close at 94.72 as its inflation data came in stronger than expected. Market anxiety continued to ramp up after the Trump dministration started the process of imposing tariffs on a further $200 billion of imports from China.

A day ahead traders will watch the US consumer price index (CPI) in June and its weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits are the key factors to watch today. Now technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.27% to settled at 25243 while prices down -12.95 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 414.6 and below same could see a test of 409.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 427.8, a move above could see prices testing 435.5.

Trading Ideas:

*  Copper trading range for the day is 409.1-435.5.

*  Copper dropped in a broad selloff after the United States raised the stakes in a trade war with China with threats of more tariffs.

*  The tariffs will not go into effect immediately, but will undergo a two-month review process, with hearings on August 20-23.

*  The Indonesian government is expected to announce the details of a deal to acquire a majority stake in the local unit of U.S. copper miner Freeport McMoRan Inc.

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled down -2.34% at 177.10 tracking weakness from LME Zinc prices which plunged 5.67%, its largest daily decline in over a year and a half as speculators unleashed selling on the back of a further escalation in the US-Chinese trade conflict. While prices bounced off their lows on Wednesday, however, as some consumers scrambled to lock in prices they regarded as good value after heavy recent losses. China accused the United States of bullying and warned it would hit back after the Trump administration raised the stakes in their trade dispute, threatening 10 per cent tariffs on $US200 billion of Chinese goods.

Metals fell the most among commodities, with nickel, tin and aluminium dropping to multi-month lows. LME Zinc dropped by its 6 per cent downside limit in Shanghai to 20,620 yuan per tonne, the lowest since June last year. ME zinc fell as much as 4.8 per cent to $US2,503, the lowest since June 2017, before paring losses to end at $US2,563, off 2.6 per cent. Last night the US dollar index gained 0.66% to close at 94.72 as its inflation data came in stronger than expected. Market anxiety continued to ramp up after the Trump administration started the process of imposing tariffs on a further $200 billion of imports from China.

A day ahead traders will watch the US consumer price index (CPI) in June and its weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits are the key factors to watch today. Now technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.16% to settled at 8263, now Zinc is getting support at 173.7 and below same could see a test of 170.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 180.4, a move above could see prices testing 183.7.

Trading Ideas:

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 170.3-183.7.

*  Zinc dropped with the threat of further tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and China exacerbating concerns about demand for metals.

*  Imported zinc is set to impact consumption of domestic brands, as downstream buyers favoured cheaper imports.

*  Visible zinc inventories across LME warehouses stood at 250,000 mt

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled down -1.28% at 958.60 tracking weakness from LME nickel bounced to finish at $13,880 a tonne, a 1.9 percent drop, from a two-month low of $13,570 as an escalation in the United States’ trade war with China, with another $200 billion of Chinese goods now potentially facing tariffs, has rattled base metals prices during early trading on Wednesday July 11. The rout in the base metals continues, but today may be a weaker price levels will attract for some buying. For now the market is nervous and flighty, with the path of least resistance to the downside.

In June, nickel price momentum slowed down slightly. However, the short-term slide in June came as a result of a general downtrend in base metals. LME nickel prices remain in a long-term uptrend since June 2017. A fundamental tightness in the nickel market has also added support to the latest nickel price increases. While President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines announced a possible halt to mining in the country due to environmental damage. In June, 23 out of 27 mines passed an environmental review, easing the uncertainty of supply.

Market anxiety continued to ramp up after the Trump administration started the process of imposing tariffs on a further $200 billion of imports from China. A day ahead traders will watch the US CPI in June and its weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits are the key factors to watch today. Now technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.2% to settled at 6938 while prices down -12.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 939.2 and below same could see a test of 919.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 973.1, a move above could see prices testing 987.6.

Trading Ideas:

*  Nickel trading range for the day is 919.8-987.6.

*  Nickel prices dropped as ongoing uncertainty around Sino-US trade relations hampers the prices.

*  The Philippines' nickel ore exports could drop by up to 17 percent this year as weaker prices curb output in the world's second-biggest supplier.

*  Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte warned he would soon halt mining in the Southeast Asian nation because of the environmental damage it has caused.

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled down -0.91% at 141.95 have been hit hard by escalating trade wars and the perceived risks to global growth and demand. Metals fell the most among commodities, with nickel, tin and aluminium dropping to multi-month lows as China accused the United States of bullying and warned it would hit back after the Trump administration raised the stakes in their trade dispute, threatening 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. As shorts significantly added their positions, the SHFE contract slumped to a low of 13,865 yuan/mt before it recovered some losses.

Aluminium was less vulnerable than other nonferrous metals as supplies of bauxite were tight and as alumina prices rebounded on production cuts. Longs entered the market at low prices. The nonferrous complex is likely to recover some losses tonight if there are no significant economic and political developments. Last night the US dollar index gained 0.66% to close at 94.72 as its inflation data came in stronger than expected. Market anxiety continued to ramp up after the Trump administration started the process of imposing tariffs on a further $200 billion of imports from China.

A day ahead traders will watch the US consumer price index (CPI) in June and its weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits are the key factors to watch today. Now technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.05% to settled at 3202 while prices down -1.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 141.1 and below same could see a test of 140.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 143.3, a move above could see prices testing 144.5.

Trading Ideas:

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 140.1-144.5.

*  Aluminium remained under pressure from fears of an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war.

*  Aluminium buyers in south China were keen to purchase at low prices in the falling market

*  China's inventory of primary aluminium across eight major markets, including SHFE warrants, fell 6,000 mt over the weekend.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 3.99% at 1520.5 amid rise in demand from consuming industries at the spot market. Further, restricted supplies from the major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too supported mentha oil prices’ uptrend. Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users. The Multi Commodity Exchange of India will double the total additional margin to 10% on both buy and sell side of all running as well as yet-to-be-launched contracts of mentha oil from Monday.

Despite the peak season of harvest in June, prices of mentha oil have risen over 20% since the beginning of June as farmers held back stocks. Farmers are holding back stocks as they are expecting prices to rise to 1,800 rupees a kg in the next two-three months. As per preliminary estimates, acreage under mentha crop will rise this year as the farmers are encouraged by higher price in recent past. As per trade sources, all the major markets are likely to witness higher inflow of the produce.

There could be chances of crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition. Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the demand for natural mentha. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1794.70 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.59.50/-.Technically now Menthaoil is getting support at 1486.1 and below same could see a test of 1451.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1537.6, a move above could see prices testing 1554.8.

Trading Ideas:

*  Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1451.8-1554.8.

*  Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1794.70 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.59.50/-.

*  Mentha oil prices ended with gains amid rise in demand from consuming industries at the spot market.

*  Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies.

*  There could be chances of crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled down by -1.63% at 3443 tracking weakness in spot demand on hope of good sowing progress in coming weeks. Pace of sowing increase last week and now the deficit is only under 4% on year which was 48% in previous week. The area under soybean in the country was at 51.64 lakh ha as of last week, according to data released by the farm ministry. In Madhya Pradesh, area under soybean was at 28 lakh ha, down from 29 lakh ha on year. However, the acreage so far is higher than the normal area for the corresponding period, based on the average of last five years.

As per latest report by SOPA, soymeal exports rose 22.5% on year to 136,000 tn. During Oct-Jun, the soymeal exports are estimated at 13.6 lakh tn, against 16.3 lakh tn in the year-ago period. The cabinet raised the minimum support price for soybean by 11.4% to Rs 3,399 per quintal but the futures have been higher than MSP. According to Agriculture ministry, the area under soybean was estimated at 858,400 ha as of last week, down by 44% from a year ago. The U.S Department of Agriculture has projected global soybean output to rise by 17.8 million tons to 354.5 million tons in 2018-19, due to hopes of a better crop in Argentina.

According to SOPA, At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -33 Rupees to 3604 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.32% to settled at 38220, now Soyabean is getting support at 3420 and below same could see a test of 3396 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3483, a move above could see prices testing 3522.

Trading Ideas:

*  Soyabean trading range for the day is 3396-3522.

*  Soyabean prices dropped tracking weakness in spot demand on hope of good sowing progress in coming weeks.

*  Pace of sowing increase last week and now the deficit is only under 4% on year which was 48% in previous week.

*  NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks dropped by 30 tonnes to 7266 tonnes.

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -33 Rupees to 3604 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled down by -0.79% at 756.5 tracking weakness in spot demand on oversupply woes due to higher stocks. For the first fortnight of July, the base import price of crude soyoil has been cut to $750 per tn from $752 per tn by the govt. As per SEA monthly report, country' edible oil stock (in ports and pipeline) is at highest level ever at 26.6 lt putting pressure on domestic prices of edible oils. Govt. hiked customs duty on crude canola oil & refined canola oil to 35% & 45% respectively. Govt. hiked customs duty on crude sunflower oil & refined sunflower oil to 35% & 45% respectively. Govt. hiked customs duty on crude Soy oil oil & refined Soy oil to 35% & 45% respectively. According to SEA, India's monthly requirement of edible oil is around 1.9 million tonnes.

India's oilmeal exports plunged 34% on year to 166,833 tn in June due to waning purchases from major importers, according to data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. The oilmeal export basket consists of soymeal, mustard meal, groundnut meal, rice bran meal and castor meal, the data showed. However, exports of the oilmeal during Apr-Jun rose 9% on year to 654,774 tn. Soymeal exports in June were at 104,088 tn as against 45,975 tn in the corresponding period last year.

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 756.55 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.17% to settled at 42620 while prices down -6.05 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 755 and below same could see a test of 752 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 761, a move above could see prices testing 764.

Trading Ideas:

*  Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 752-764.

*  Ref soyoil ended with losses tracking weakness in spot demand on oversupply woes due to higher stocks.

*  For the first fortnight of July, the base import price of crude soyoil has been cut to $750 per tn from $752 per tn by the govt.

*  As per SEA monthly report, country' edible oil stock is at highest level ever at 26.6 lt putting pressure on domestic prices of edible oils.

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 756.55 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -1.2% at 623.7 tracking weakness in spot demand and overseas prices over concerns about the U.S.-China trade dispute and on weak demand. The government has slashed the base import price of CPO and RBD Palmolein by $26to $618 per ton and $27 to $646 per ton respectively. According to SEA monthly update, palm oil imports into the country were down 33% and 46% for CPO and RBD Palmolein in May compared to last year. India’s palm oil imports dropped in May due to higher taxes on shipments while weaker rupees making imports expensive.

Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles at the end of June rose 0.8 percent from the previous month to 2.19 million tonnes, industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said. Production in June fell 12.6 percent from May to 1.33 million tonnes, while exports declined 12.6 percent from the previous month to 1.13 million tonnes, according to the MPOB data. Indonesia's shipments of palm oil and palm kernel oil, excluding lauric oil, oleochemical and biodiesel, fell 18.3 percent to 2.14 million tonnes in May from a year earlier, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said.

The ongoing trade war between China and the United States has put pressure on palm oil prices, GAPKI said in a statement. Indonesia's palm oil stocks jumped to 4.76 million tonnes by the end of May, the group added, compared with 3.97 million tonnes by end-April. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.47% to settled at 4391 while prices down -7.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 620.6 and below same could see a test of 617.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 628.9, a move above could see prices testing 634.

Trading Ideas:

*  CPO trading range for the day is 617.4-634.

*  Crude palm oil dropped tracking weakness in spot demand and overseas prices over concerns about the U.S.-China trade dispute and on weak demand.

*  Indonesia's shipments of palm oil and palm kernel oil, fell 18.3 percent to 2.14 million tonnes in May from a year earlier.

*  Indonesia's palm oil stocks jumped to 4.76 million tonnes by the end of May, compared with 3.97 million tonnes by end-April.

Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 4.20 rupees and settled at 630.80 rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -0.41% at 4139 tracking weakness in spot demand amid expectation of higher arrivals. Expectation of selling by NAFED in August month kept demand under pressure. NAFED is expected to start selling of around 872,709 tons procured mustard in August month. The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) so far procured 669,048 tones of mustard from Rajasthan, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh under the price support scheme.

The government cut output forecast for Mustard seed to 7.54 mln tn from 7.92 tn, in its second advance estimate for 2017-18. Govt. hiked customs duty on refined rapeseed oil to 35% from 20%.Mustard procurement in Madhya Pradesh has come to an end with the state government having bought a total of 119,291 tn of the oilseed at minimum support price under the Krishak Samruddhi Yojana, a senior government official said. "Over 53,000 registered farmers have benefited from the procurement drive in 50 centers across the state," the official said. Madhya Pradesh, a major producer of mustard, had begun procuring mustard.

The state government had begun procurement after market prices fell below the minimum support price of 4,000 rupees per 100 kg. In Madhya Pradesh, around 1.6 mln farmers are registered under the Krishak Samruddhi Yojana scheme which allows them to sell their produce at minimum support prices and avail incentives. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 6.45 Rupees to end at 4269.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.55% to settled at 136200, now Rmseed is getting support at 4128 and below same could see a test of 4116 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4156, a move above could see prices testing 4172.

Trading Ideas:

*  Rmseed trading range for the day is 4116-4172.

*  Mustard seed prices ended with losses tracking weakness in spot demand amid expectation of higher arrivals.

*  NAFED is expected to start selling of around 872,709 tons procured mustard in August month.

*  NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks dropped by 131 tonnes to 94501 tonnes.

*  In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 6.45 Rupees to end at 4269.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.91% at 6990 tracking weakness in spot demand on expectation of rise in acreage. Prices also remained under pressure on projection of rise in area under turmeric as farmers are likely to speed up sowing activities following good rainfall. Overall area is expected to increase by 10-15% on year. Normal monsoon will prompt the farmers to cultivate turmeric as it has got relatively decent returns last season as compared to other crops.

Meanwhile, current spot market buying activities are mostly need based amid limited supplies due to lean season. Farmers and stockists were holding back their old stocks on expectation of higher prices in coming days as current year production is likely to decline due to lower acreage by 40-45% in Tamil Nadu. As per market sources, currently Nizamabad turmeric stocks were estimated around 1.20 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs) as compared to around 2.00 lakh bags same time last year. Sources revealed that, currently all India Turmeric stocks reported around 20 - 25 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs) as compared to last year 35 – 40 lakh bags.

In Nizamabad market, supply reported up by 108,000 bags during the period and up by 70,000 bags during corresponding period of last year. New crop supply continued in the Nizamabad market. Currently, around 14 - 25% moisture content supplies reported, which is lower from last week. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7326.25 Rupees dropped -3.5 Rupees.Technically now Turmeric is getting support at 6948 and below same could see a test of 6904 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7058, a move above could see prices testing 7124.

Trading Ideas:

*  Turmeric trading range for the day is 6904-7124.

*  Turmeric prices ended with losses tracking weakness in spot demand on expectation of rise in acreage.

*  Overall area is expected to increase by 10-15% on year.

*  NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 20 tonnes to 5459 tonnes.

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7326.25 Rupees dropped -3.5 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled flat tracking good monsoon progress amid selling at higher level. Monsoon rainfall in Gujarat and Rajasthan is expected to be active in near-term and this is likely to keep sentiments down. India is expected to export a record 175,000 tn of jeera in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar), primarily because supply from its competitors has taken a hit making it the sole supplier of the largely sought after spice, trade officials said. Supply of jeera from Syria and Turkey--India's main rivals in the global jeera export market--has been hit both in terms of quantity and quality due to adverse weather, according to exporters.

Having hit a record high of 155,000 tn in 2014-15, jeera exports fell to 97,790 tn in 2015-16, and 143,670 tn in the year ended March, according to data from Spices Board India. Since Syria and Turkey have been wiped out from the global jeera trade, no competitors are left against India in jeera exports. Syria produced around 20,000-25,000 tn of jeera this year but the majority of the crop was lost to heavy rains. Turkey produced 8,000 tn jeera this year, and rains have damaged 25% of the crop.

China produced around 13,000 tn of jeera this year but they are the largest importer from India because it consumes around 100,000 tn annually. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -123.35 Rupees to end at 18366.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting support at 18370 and below same could see a test of 18210 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 18660, a move above could see prices testing 18790.

Trading Ideas:

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 18210-18790.

*  Jeera prices settled flat tracking good monsoon progress amid selling at higher level. # Monsoon rainfall in Gujarat and Rajasthan is expected to be active in near-term.

*  NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 30 tonnes to 2016 tonnes.

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -123.35 Rupees to end at 18366.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cardamom

Cardamom on MCX settled up by 0.04% at 1010.5 on reports that recent rains have damaged the plants and output may be lower than earlier estimates. Rains have also impacted the new crops and supplies from the fresh crop would get momentum by the third week of this month, though scattered supplies have begun to pour in some of the auction centres. Stockists did not make buying on hopes of higher output and early commencement of new crop supplies. Heavy monsoon rainfall that has caused damage to plantation thereby resulting in crop loss and downward revision of earlier made higher crop estimates.

At the Vandanmedu auction centre, supplies were at 21 MTs; lower by 22 MTs that traded at avg. auction prices of Rs.982/kg, higher by Rs.31 while max price superior quality material fetched was at Rs.1256/kg. According to Spices Board, cardamom exports during 2017-18 hit all time high at 5680 MTs valued at Rs.60908 lakhs. Harvesting activities are also likely to be delayed due to heavy rains that will lead to delayed arrivals of fresh crop to auctions.

Light to moderate rainfall is most likely in many places of Idukki district until 9th Jul. Despite record higher exports in 2017-18, exports figure in 2018-19 may not touch that volume as there are issues regarding pesticide to the stocks exported to Saudi Arabia. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.19% to settled at 155 while prices up 0.4 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 993.4 and below same could see a test of 976.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1024.2, a move above could see prices testing 1037.9.

Trading Ideas:

*  Cardamom trading range for the day is 976.3-1037.9.

*  Cardamom prices gained on reports that recent rains have damaged the plants and output may be lower.

*  Stockists did not make buying on hopes of higher output and early commencement of new crop supplies.

*  Rains have also impacted the new crops and supplies from the fresh crop would get momentum by the third week of this month.

*  Cardamom prices in spot market dropped by 5.20 rupees and settled at 1016.30 rupees.

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled down by -0.09% at 22710 due to weak demand from traders and stockists at the spot market. Though, some losses were capped on anticipation of lower production from major producing belts due to reduction in crop acreage. The domestic cotton acreage dipped 24% to 5.46 million hectare so far due to delay in rains in major cotton producing states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Farmers in the country have sown cotton across 3.22 mln ha in the ongoing kharif season, down 30.2% from the year-ago period, according to data released by the farm ministry.

Planting of the crop was down in all the states barring Karnataka, Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan, the data showed. In Maharashtra, the largest producer, the area under the fibre was down 49.6% on year at 626,000 ha, according to the data. Acreage in Gujarat, another major grower, was down 51.2% on year at 242,000 ha mainly due to the delay in arrival of monsoon over the state. The sowing in major growing states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat and Telangana is expected to gather pace this week due to revival of the monsoon current.

India's cotton production in 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) is estimated at 34.9 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg), higher than 33.9 mln bales in the previous year, according to the government's third advance estimate. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.99% to settled at 6460 while prices down -20 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22570 and below same could see a test of 22430 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 22790, a move above could see prices testing 22870.

Trading Ideas:

*  Cotton trading range for the day is 22430-22870.

*  Cotton prices dropped due to weak demand from traders and stockists at the spot market.

*  Though, some losses were capped on anticipation of lower production from major producing belts due to reduction in crop acreage.

*  The domestic cotton acreage dipped 24% to 5.46 million hectare so far due to delay in rains in major cotton producing states.

*  Cotton prices in spot market gained by 50.00 rupees and settled at 22970.00 rupees.

www.kediaadvisory.com  

Views express by all participants are for information & acadamic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before refering below views. Click Here For Disclaimer