Published on 17/03/2017 11:20:22 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Crude oil trading range for the day is 3130-3276 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports | #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips


Gold

Gold on MCX settled up 1.52% at 28411 after the U.S. central bank signalled only gradual rate tightening and the dollar slid to its lowest in five weeks. The dollar index hit a five-week low on Thursday after the Fed raised U.S. interest rates as expected, but did not flag any plans to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening as some had anticipated.

The election this week in Holland had calmed concerns over political risk in Europe, as Dutch center-right Prime Minister Mark Rutte fought off the challenge of anti-Islam and anti-EU rival Geert Wilders. Rutte's victory was hailed across Europe by governments facing a rising wave of nationalism, denting gold's safe-haven appeal. First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits saw a modest decrease in the week ended March 11th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said initial jobless claims edged down to 241,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 243,000. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust fell 0.28 percent to 837.06 tonnes on Thursday from 839.43 tonnes on Wednesday.

The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund saw outflows after three straight session of inflows this week. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.26% to settled at 4995 while prices up 426 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 28310 and below same could see a test of 28210 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28525, a move above could see prices testing 28640.                             

Trading Ideas:  

*Gold trading range for the day is 28210-28640.

*Gold prices gained after the U.S. central bank signalled only gradual rate tightening and the dollar slid to its lowest in five weeks.

*The Fed raised interest rates for the second time in three months, with officials sticking to their outlook for two more rate hikes this year.

*Fed’s Yellen said that the central bank would stick to a gradual path of interest rate rises even if inflation runs above its 2 percent target.          

               

Silver

Silver on MCX settled up 1.38% at 40598 amid a slump in dollar, as investors mulled over the Fed’s more dovish than expected statement on the pace of rate hikes this year. The Federal Reserve stuck a familiar tone in its statement on Wednesday, pointing out that interest rate increases “will be gradual” in 2017, and maintained its view of three rate hikes, with the remaining two rate hikes expected later this year.

Fed Chief Janet Yellen said in press conference, the US central bank would continue to provide accommodative monetary policy to support the US economy but warned against a prolonged period of lower rates in order to avoid a situation which forces the fed to “raise rates rapidly”. Meanwhile a mixed batch of economic data had a muted effect on the precious-metal as it continued to trade near session highs. While the Commerce Department released a report showing a rebound in new U.S. residential construction in the month of February, the report also showed a sharp pullback in building permits.

The report said housing starts jumped by 3.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.288 million in February after slumping by 1.9 percent to a revised 1.251 million in January. First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits saw a modest decrease in the week ended March 11th, according to a report released by the Labor Department.

The report said initial jobless claims edged down to 241,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 243,000.  Technically now Silver is getting support at 40287 and below same could see a test of 39976 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 41072, a move above could see prices testing 41546.   

Trading Ideas:  

*Silver trading range for the day is 39976-41546.

*Silver gained amid a slump in dollar, as investors mulled over the Fed’s more dovish than expected statement on the pace of rate hikes this year.

*U.S. homebuilding jumped in February as unseasonably warm weather boosted the construction of single-family houses to near a 9-1/2-year high.

*Fed’s Yellen fielded a raft of questions concerning the Fed’s decision to raise rates; future monetary policy decisions and the current as well as future prospects of the economy.

               

Crudeoil

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 0.44% at 3192 continued to rise in yesterday session extending strong gains from the previous session as support seen after a drawdown in U.S. crude inventory eased concerns about a global supply glut. While crude oil prices finished with a modest loss giving up it's morning gains as rising output from the US remained a threat to efforts by other major producers to rebalance the market. Still, prices continued to find some support following data Wednesday showing the drop in U.S. crude supply in 10 weeks, as well as weaker dollar in the wake of the Fed’s less-hawkish-than-expected rate announcement.

Crude oil prices also briefly traded higher in the last hour before the settlement, buoyed comments from Khalid al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, who said output cuts led by the OPEC may be extended if necessary, according to Bloomberg News. The market also saw volatility tied to the day’s expiration of April crude oil options.

Now traders are eyeing for Friday, oilfield services provider Baker Hughes on Friday will detail the latest weekly rig count for the week ended March 10. Last week, the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 8, the eighth weekly increase in a row. That brought the total count to 617, the most since October 2015. Also sentiment also improved following a sharp sell-off on Tuesday as the Paris-based IEA said the global crude oil market is headed for a deficit of supply against demand in the first half of the year if a coordinated pact to curb output to the market holds until the end of June. Technically market is getting support at 3161 and below same could see a test of 3130 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3234, a move above could see prices testing 3276.        

Trading Ideas:  

*Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3130-3276.

*Crude gained as support seen after the remarks by the Saudi energy minister in focus as well as weekly rig count data.

*Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, who said output cuts led by the OPEC may be extended if necessary, according to Bloomberg

*Crude inventories at 528.2mbls are 7.3% higher than year-ago levels, and the storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma.

               

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled down -1.74% at 192 as trader book there long positions as the Energy Department’s report on the nation’s commercial gas inventories disappointed traders. The Energy Information Administration said gas stocks dropped by 53 billion cubic feet last week, edging down to 2.24 trillion cubic feet. While market had believed U.S. natural gas inventories would fall by as much as 72 billion cubic feet.

The nation’s gas stockpile has come down from 2.48 trillion cubic feet a year ago, but still higher than the five-year average of 1.85 trillion cubic feet. Now total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.242 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 9.5% lower than levels at this time a year ago but 17.6% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Prices of the heating fuel are down around 22% so far this year as forecasts for warm winter weather weighed on heating demand expectations. Meanwhile based on data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, this year’s extremely warm winter has pushed heating demand for natural gas to nearly 20% below average. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heating.

Without significant demand for natural gas, inventories could stay near record levels and may even continue to pull prices even lower.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.33% to settled at 5476 while prices down -3.4 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 189.2 and below same could see a test of 186.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 194.7, a move above could see prices testing 197.5.               

Trading Ideas:  

*Naturalgas trading range for the day is 186.5-197.5.

*Natural gas turned lower after data showed that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. fell less than expected last week.

*The latest EIA natural gas storage data recorded a draw of 53bcf against the expectation of -58bcf for the week ending March 10th.

* Stocks are now 9.5% below the year-ago figure, but 21.4% above the five-year average from the 18.8% recorded last week.

 

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.25% at 387.75 supported by a softer dollar and ongoing mine supply concerns. Striking workers at BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine in Chile, are blocking attempts by the company to renew operations at a key port nearby, BHP and an umbrella union said on Thursday, as the stoppage enters its sixth week.

Copper prices support from a declining US dollar as traders shrugged off the Fed’s decision to hike rates and instead focused on the fact that the Fed is unlikely to accelerate its pace of future rate hikes. The Fed maintained its outlook for two additional rate hikes this year and three more in 2018, but did not mention any further rate hikes. Yellen also added that the rate hikes would be “gradual”. This sent a rally in US equities while it caused the US dollar to pullback in copper.

Meanwhile, after the Fed four Gulf countries hiked their rates as well given that their currencies are pegged to the dollar and China’s PBOC raised rates by 10 basis points on both its medium-term lending facility loans and on repos. Meanwhile, there are no new updates on what is really driving copper prices these days, the supply disruptions. According to Goldman Sachs commodities research, roughly 200,000 tons of copper production has already been lost due to the production disruptions. Goldman Sachs sees copper prices climbing to $6,200 over the next three months.

Data released overnight from China showed that copper output increased 6.7% in the Jan-Feb 2017 period versus the same period in 2016. Now technically market is getting support at 386.1 and below same could see a test of 384.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 390.2, a move above could see prices testing 392.7.           

Trading Ideas:  

*Copper trading range for the day is 384.5-392.7.

*Copper rose as stoppages at three of the mines raised supply concerns and a weaker dollar also supported.

*Striking workers at Escondida on Thursday blocked attempts by the mine's owner to renew operations at a key port nearby.

*Goldman Sachs sees copper prices climbing to $6,200 over the next three months.

         

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 0.35% at 184.35 as support seen after dollar sank to a four-week low against a basket of currencies after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time in three months, as expected, but said that further increases would be gradual. Also fresh buying seen on the counter after the update that the global zinc market was in deficit by 27,000 tonnes in January and the lead market deficit more than doubled to 15,000 tonnes, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed.

Meanwhile Chinese data on Thursday showed that its base metals output rose quickly in the first two months of the year as producers responded to higher prices by ramping up output. While in U.S. the homebuilding jumped in February as unseasonably warm weather boosted the construction of single-family houses to near a 9-1/2-year high, suggesting the economy remained on solid ground despite an apparent slowdown in the first quarter. In basemetals complex LME zinc was the biggest gainer, targeting a 5 percent rally in prices this week.

Price have been supported by a widening shortfall in metal after several large mines closed in recent years. Meanwhile, after the Fed four Gulf countries hiked their rates as well given that their currencies are pegged to the dollar and China’s PBOC raised rates by 10 basis points on both its medium-term lending facility loans and on repos.

These hikes did not cause any selling pressure on basemetals. Technically now Zinc is getting support at 183 and below same could see a test of 181.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 186, a move above could see prices testing 187.7.   

Trading Ideas:  

*Zinc trading range for the day is 181.7-187.7.

*Zinc gained as support seen after dollar sank to a four-week low after the US Fed raised interest rates.

*Fresh buying seen on the counter after the update that the global zinc market was in deficit by 27,000 tonnes in January -ILZSG showed.

*Chinese data showed that its base metals output rose quickly in the first two months of the year as producers responded to higher prices

               

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled down -0.71% at 666.70 tracking weakness in International prices of nickel which have remained low even though the Philippines, a major producer of the material used to make stainless steel, has repeatedly indicated that it will slash output. While some support seen in metals prices from a declining US dollar as traders shrugged off the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike rates and instead focused on the fact that the Fed is unlikely to accelerate its pace of future rate hikes.

Meanwhile data from US revelled that US homebuilding jumped in February as unseasonably warm weather boosted the construction of single-family houses to near a 9-1/2-year high, suggesting the economy remained on solid ground despite an apparent slowdown in the first quarter. Now traders are eyeing for fresh update from Indonesia which is expected to gradually set export quota and export timetable to further detail its new export ore policy.

Market expectations over ore supply shortages will change in March with progress of new export policy in Indonesia and end of monsoon season in the Philippines. Those suppliers have begun contacting with domestic ore traders from late February-early March. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.07% to settled at 23851 while prices down -4.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 661.4 and below same could see a test of 656.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 674.5, a move above could see prices testing 682.3.    

Trading Ideas:  

*Nickel trading range for the day is 656.1-682.3.

* Nickel dropped even though the Philippines has repeatedly indicated that it will slash output.

*Prices got support from a declining US dollar as traders shrugged off the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike rates.

*Market expectations over ore supply shortages will change in March with progress of new export policy in Indonesia.

               

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.45% at 123.85 tracking support from LME Aluminium prices which rose 12 percent in London since the start of 2017, to $1900 yesterday again on expectations of less supply from China. China's plans to constrict production next winter and help improve air quality tightening supply by around 1.2 million tonnes, while an anti-dumping case in the United States is likely to curb exports of semi-manufactured shapes of metal.

Also Rusal said it expects the aluminium market to remain in "good shape" in 2017, with demand growing by 5 percent and a global market deficit widening to 1.1 million tonnes. Also Global aluminium supply will increase by 4.3 percent to 61.6 million tonnes, tempered by slower output growth in China, which is still seen up by 6 percent to 34.3 million tonnes. Yesterday prices also support from a declining US dollar as traders shrugged off the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike rates and instead focused on the fact that the Fed is unlikely to accelerate its pace of future rate hikes. The Fed maintained its outlook for two additional rate hikes this year and three more in 2018, but did not mention any further rate hikes.

Yellen also added that the rate hikes would be “gradual”. This sent a rally in US equities while it caused the US dollar to pullback, and that was positive for dollar-denominated commodities. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.53% to settled at 1750 while prices up 0.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 123.2 and below same could see a test of 122.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 124.8, a move above could see prices testing 125.6.      

Trading Ideas:  

*Aluminium trading range for the day is 122.4-125.6.

*Aluminium gained tracking in LME prices settled up by 0.7% at $1,900 supported by weakness in dollar.

*U.S. homebuilding jumped in February as unseasonably warm weather boosted the construction of single-family houses to near a 9-1/2-year high.

*China’s Aluminium output posted a significant year-on-year growth of 15.6 percent to 5.49 million tonnes for January-February, data from the NBS showed.

               

Mentha oil

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 0.04% at 1004.3 amid rise in demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, also supported mentha oil prices. Sources mentioned that nearly 14500 MT of mint products were exported in six months of the current financial year.

This implies that export demand for the complete financial year can be between 27000 and 29000 MT quite cheaper, versus 23000 of total exports last year. Farmers are keeping most of the stocks in their hands. Most buyers are willing to buy at these levels. Since farmers are keeping most of stocks, thus whenever requirement arises, industry people will be purchasing from the farmers. This will be another bullish price driver. Indian markets had reported higher sowing for current year.

Traders had estimated earlier that the total production in the range of 35000-37000 tons for this year, and currently it appears that the average estimate might be reduced to 30000 tons due to lower plantings on falling prices in the last two years.

Trade sources estimate that total area under Mentha planting has dropped by 20% to 1.75 lakh ha this season resulting into a proportionate fall in Mentha oil production this year. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1150.30 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-0.80/-.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.83% to settled at 3194 while prices up 0.4 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 998.8 and below same could see a test of 993.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1009.3, a move above could see prices testing 1014.2.  

Trading Ideas:  

*Menthaoil trading range for the day is 993.2-1014.2.

*Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1150.30 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-0.80/-.

*Mentha oil prices ended with gains amid rise in demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market.

*Further, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, also supported prices.

*Trade sources estimate that total area under Mentha planting has dropped by 20% to 1.75 lakh ha.

               

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled up by 0.17% at 2890 on account of good demand at the spot market against lower arrivals from the major producing belts. Reports from SOPA showed that Soybean exports during October-February were estimated at 112,000 tonnes, compared with 80,186 tonnes in the year-ago period.

Arrivals during February fell to 650,000 tons as compared to 900,000 tons in January. Soybean crushing has also dropped to 750,000 tons in February as compared to 900,000 tons in the same period a month ago. INTL FCStone have raised Brazil‘s 2016/17 soybean crop production estimate by 5 million tonnes to 109.7 million tonnes from its previous estimate and about 15 million tonnes from its previous seasonnrsquo;s estimate.

The raise is attributed to higher yield potential on favourable weather. Brazil‘s 2016/17 soybean production is projected at 109.65 million tonnes compared to 105.02 million tonnes in February by Celeres. China’s February soybean imports surged by 23% year-on-year to 5.54 million tonnes it is the highest volume since the year 2010, according to the figures released by the General Administration of Customs of China.

However, the imports are 28% lower from 7.66 million tonnes in January this year. China’s cumulative soybean imports for January and February 2017 stood at 13.19 million tonnes, up 30% (10.17 million tonnes) from the corresponding period last year. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  21 Rupees to 3012 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically now Soyabean is getting support at 2875 and below same could see a test of 2859 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 2907, a move above could see prices testing 2923.     

Trading Ideas:  

*Soyabean trading range for the day is 2859-2923.

*Soyabean prices gained on account of good demand at the spot market against lower arrivals from the major producing belts.

*Reports from SOPA showed that Soybean exports during October-February were estimated at 112,000 tonnes.

*NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks dropped by 6658 tonnes to 209370 tonnes.

*At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  21 Rupees to 3012 Rupees per 100 kgs.

               

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled up by 0.34% at 636.25 tracking firmness in spot demand despite of higher imports in edible oil in Feb, cut in base import prices and adequate supplies. India imported 17 per cent more vegetable oil in February 2017 at 1,270,443 tonnes, compared to 1,082,009 tonnes in the corresponding month last year.

However, so far in the current oil year (November to October), vegetable oil imports have declined by a modest 8 per cent to 4,680,451 tonnes (November 2016-February 2017 period) as against 5,098,400 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Imports have reduced due to a good kharif oilseed crop and better domestic availability of edible oils.

Also, the currency crunch hampered consumer purchases during the first quarter of the oil year, noted the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), in a statement issued. Agriculture Ministry in its second advance estimate for 2016-17 oilseed production pegged soybean output at 14.1 million tons compared to market's expectation of 11.4-11.5 million tons.

The hike in production estimate in oilseed has raised hopes for big supply of edible oil in coming months, which will keep oil prices under pressure. Export of soyameal and its value-added products have recorded a staggering growth of 446.38 per cent this year, according to the Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA).

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 657.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.56% to settled at 57680 while prices up 2.15 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 633 and below same could see a test of 629 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 641, a move above could see prices testing 645.       

Trading Ideas:  

*Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 629-645.

*Ref soyoil prices ended with gains tracking firmness in spot demand despite of higher imports in edible oil.

*India imported 17 per cent more vegetable oil in February 2017 at 1,270,443 tonnes, compared to 1,082,009 tonnes.

* Imports have reduced due to a good kharif oilseed crop and better domestic availability of edible oils.

*At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 657.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.

               

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by 0.44% at 530.9 supported by expectations of stronger export and physical demand. Palm oil exports data edged up 1.4% for Feb. 1-15 according to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. The market was also supported by concerns about a potential El Nino weather pattern returning this year.

Lower production (fell 1.4 % to 1.26 mt) and inventories (fell to a six-year low of 1.46 mt, down 5.3 % on month) in Feb also bullish for the palm oil prices. Palm oil output in Malaysia dropped by 1.43% to 1.25 million tons as compared to 1.27 million tons in January, data published by Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. Closing stockpiles for month of February also dropped 5.32% to 1.45 million tons as compared to 1.54 million in January.

Palm oil imports fell for the third consecutive month by 11.56 per cent to 608,762 tonnes in January, on account of good domestic oilseeds production and better availability of edible oils, industry body Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) said. India, the world’s leading vegetable oil buyer, had imported 688,393 tonnes palm oil in January 2015. The country’s total vegetable oil imports fell by 19 per cent to 1.24 million tonnes (mt) in January this year from 1.26 mt in the year-ago period.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.34% to settled at 3596 while prices up 2.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 527.8 and below same could see a test of 524.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 534.6, a move above could see prices testing 538.2.              

Trading Ideas:  

*CPO trading range for the day is 524.6-538.2.

*Crude palm oil prices ended with gains supported by expectations of stronger export and physical demand.

*Palm oil exports data edged up 1.4% for Feb. 1-15 according to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services.

*Indonesia will set its export tax for crude palm oil (CPO) in February at $18 per tonne, up from $3 per tonne last month

*Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 1.60 rupees and settled at 543.30 rupees.

               

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled up by 0.37% at 3841 tracking firmness in spot demand after prices dropped due to oversupply woes. Meanwhile, new mustard seed arrivals across the country totaled at 225,000 bags against 485,000 on previous session and crop quality is better than last year.

India is expected to produce around 6.5-7 million tonnes (mt) of rape mustard seeds in 2016-17 as compared to 5.8 mt produced in 2015-16 due to higher acreage and improving productivity. The carry-forward stock from the previous season was around 0.15 mt. The Ministry of Agriculture expects 8.5 mt of mustard seeds to be produced in the current rabi season against 6.8 mt a year ago, as per its 4th advanced estimates.

Higher price levels seen before sowing, favourable weather and a hike of over 10.4 per cent in MSP to Rs. 3,700/Q (including Rs. 100 bonus) explain the increase in acreage by over 9 per cent to 7.05 million hectares. Initial estimates show that arrivals this year are going to be better than last year. Increasing arrivals will put downward pressure and a price correction is likely.

The demand for Indian mustard meal in the international market is down by 44 per cent for the FY 2016-17 (April-December) compared with the same period last year, and the export in December has been the lowest in the current financial year, down 86 per cent (YoY). In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 12.85 Rupees to end at 3767.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.08% to settled at 37160 while prices up 14 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 3819 and below same could see a test of 3797 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3861, a move above could see prices testing 3881.    

Trading Ideas:  

*Rmseed trading range for the day is 3797-3881.

*Mustard seed prices ended with gains tracking firmness in spot demand after prices dropped due to oversupply woes.

*India is expected to produce around 6.5-7 mln tns of rape mustard seeds in 2016-17 as compared to 5.8 mt produced in 2015-16.

*The demand for Indian mustard meal in the international market is down by 44 per cent for the FY 2016-17

*In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 12.85 Rupees to end at 3767.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

    

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.27% at 6532 on late profit booking after prices gained on improving exports demand at the spot market. The demand for the new season turmeric in recent weeks is lower. The turmeric arrivals in the country are higher at 81,876 tonnes during Mar 1-15 compared to 12,825 tonnes during previous month, as per the data. On the export front, country exported about 82,115 tonnes during April-Dec period, up by 28% compared to last year exports of 64,105 tonnes, as per government data.

On the export front, country exported about 82,115 tons during April-December period, up by 28% compared to last year exports of 64,105 tons, while May contracts traded lower on higher arrivals from the producing regions. Reports showed the turmeric arrivals in the country are higher at 81,876 tons during March 1-15 compared to 12,825 tons during previous month.

Turmeric prices dropped sharply by Rs. 500 per quintal on poor demand from bulk buyers. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales yard finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,211 to 8,759 a quintal, the root variety sold at Rs. 5,099 to 7,316 a quintal. At the Regulated Marketing Committee finger turmeric sold at Rs. 6,555 to 7,877 a quintal, the root varietysold at Rs. 5,699 to 6,969 a quintal. At the Erode Cooperative Marketing Society finger turmeric sold at Rs. 6,556 to 8,629 a quintal, root variety sold at Rs. 6,249 to 7,411 a quintal.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6453.35 Rupees dropped -59.15 Rupees.Technically now Turmeric is getting support at 6494 and below same could see a test of 6456 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6590, a move above could see prices testing 6648.     

Trading Ideas:  

*Turmeric trading range for the day is 6456-6648.

*Turmeric prices ended with losses on late profit booking after prices gained on improving exports demand at the spot market.

*The turmeric arrivals in the country are higher at 81,876 tonnes during Mar 1-15 compared to 12,825 tonnes during previous month.

*NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 109 tonnes to 538 tonnes.

*In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6453.35 Rupees dropped -59.15 Rupees.

               

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.62% at 16960 on reports of lower production estimates in Gujarat and improved exports in 2016/17 financial year. The market is expecting good exports demand in coming weeks. The arrivals have been good in the physical market. There are expectations of increase in export demand at slightly lower levels.

As per data, during Mar 1-15 about 21,513 tonnes of jeera arrived compared to 6,120 tonnes during last month same period. On the export front, Jeera exports from country increase by 26.9% to 1.33 lt for the calendar year 2016 while the exports increase by 36.7% to 93,724 tonnes in first 9 month of marketing year 2016/17 as per the data release by Dept of commerce, GOI. As per second advance estimates for 2016/17, production of Jeera in Gujarat will be 2.21 lt, down almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lt. Lower carryover stock coupled with higher export demand may push up jeera prices, as traders fear tight supply conditions in the coming months.

The carryover stock has dipped to about 2 lakh bags (each of 55 kg) as against the normal 20-25 lakh bags, thereby reducing the availability even as the demand for exports and domestic consumption remains firm, trader sources said.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 103.15 Rupees to end at 17193.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.86% to settled at 7863 while prices up 105 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 16830 and below same could see a test of 16695 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 17085, a move above could see prices testing 17205.        

Trading Ideas:  

*Jeera trading range for the day is 16695-17205.

*Jeera prices ended with gains on reports of lower production estimates in Gujarat and improved exports in 2016/17 financial year.

*As per data, during Mar 1-15 about 21,513 tonnes of jeera arrived compared to 6,120 tonnes during last month same period.

*NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 21 tonnes to 66 tonnes.

*In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 103.15 Rupees to end at 17193.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Maize

Maize on NCDEX settled up by 1.05% at 1446 tracking firmess in spot demand and overseas prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export inspections of U.S. corn in the latest week at 1,547,022 tonnes, at the high end of a range of trade expectations. Private analytics firm Informa Economics raised its projection of U.S. 2017 corn plantings to 90.8 million acres, from its January forecast of 90.5 million, trade sources said.

Corn prices dropped after the government Crop Estimates Committee forecast a 2017 harvest of 13.918 million tonnes, 79 percent more than in 2016. That forecast was 6 percent higher than expectations of 13.11 million tonnes. Cold weather, rains and resilient genetically-modified crops (GMO) have also limited the damage caused by an armyworm outbreak. The region offers potential export markets.

Neighbouring Zimbabwe has been hit by the fall armyworm, an invasive South American species, denting crop output. The U.S. government projected a 7 percent decline in corn production in the 2017/18 marketing year to 14.065 billion bushels, but ending stocks were expected to remain burdensome at more than 2 billion bushels.

At Nizamabad market in Andhra Pradesh arrivals were reported at 7000 Qtl, higher by 1000 Qtl from previous trading day. At Koppal market arrivals were reported at 2000 Bags, steady as against previous day’s arrival. In Nizamabad maize spot prices dropped -3.85 Rupees to 1443.35 Rupees per 100kgs.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.82% to settled at 1790 while prices up 15 rupees, now Maize is getting support at 1435 and below same could see a test of 1423 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1457, a move above could see prices testing 1467.   

Trading Ideas:  

*Maize trading range for the day is 1423-1467.

*Maize prices ended with gains tracking firmess in spot demand and overseas prices.

*USDA reported export inspections of U.S. corn in the latest week at 1,547,022 tonnes, at the high end of a range of trade expectations.

*At Nizamabad market in Andhra Pradesh arrivals were reported at 7000 Qtl, higher by 1000 Qtl from previous trading day.

*In Nizamabad maize spot prices dropped -3.85 Rupees to 1443.35 Rupees per 100kgs.

               

Cardamom

Cardamom on MCX settled up by 0.83% at 1406.4 on the sidelines amid subdued physical demand for cardamom in the domestic spot market. Further, sufficient supplies on higher physical arrivals from the major cardamom producing regions too fuelled the downtrend. Upcountry dealers as well as exporters were covering as it has become clear that no arrival of fresh cardamom will take place till the next season picking begins, by mid-June.

This sentiment has prompted all stakeholders to become active in the market. Quality of the capsules arriving were not up to the mark and there was a shrinkage in supply. Arrivals last week stood at 295 tonnes as against 390 tonnes the previous week. The auction average moved up, vacillating between Rs. 1,192 and Rs. 1,280 a kg.

Though the south-west monsoon was declared “normal” last year after two consecutive years of drought, the cardamom growing areas received poor rains. Cardamom farmers say the monsoon was very bad and about 50 per cent deficient. A failed north-east monsoon also added to the crop worry. The farmers say that last year they received just about 10 per cent rains compared to what they used to get normally during the north-east monsoon.

The yields are thus likely to take a hit and are expected to be just 30 per cent of last year’s. Prices are expected to remain high as cardamom enters its lean season which is between February and May when the supply comes down.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.12% to settled at 721 while prices up 11.6 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1389.2 and below same could see a test of 1372.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1418.2, a move above could see prices testing 1430.1.             

Trading Ideas:  

*Cardamom trading range for the day is 1372.1-1430.1.

*Cardamom prices dropped on the sidelines amid subdued physical demand for cardamom in the domestic spot market.

*Further, sufficient supplies on higher physical arrivals from the major cardamom producing regions too fuelled the downtrend.

*Upcountry dealers as well as exporters were covering as it has become clear that no arrival of fresh cardamom will take place till the next season

*Cardamom prices in spot market gained by 0.80 rupees and settled at 1431.20 rupees. 

               

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.23% at 21360 tracking spot demand supported by poor response to the reserve auction in China. China sold 24,400 tonnes of cotton at auction of state reserves, which represents 76.1% of total cotton made available at auction. Moreover, China Feb cotton imports up 145% on year to 138,100 tonnes as per industry association. The supply of cotton in the domestic market is steady so as the demand from the ginners and textile mills.

As the Chinese cotton auction started at a 25% premium over the prevailing fibre rate in India, Indian exporters are pinning hopes on a revival in cotton yarn exports. A huge volume of cotton stocks in China is set to be sold via auctions from March 6th to the end of August 2017. The Chinese government is expected to offer about 30,000 tonnes of cotton a day for sale over the next several months.

ICAC predicts that around 2.6 million tonnes of China’s cotton stocks will be sold by the government this year. China’s total stocks, including those in the private sector, are estimated to down to around 9.3 million tonnes at the end of this financial year, representing about 53% of world cotton stocks. China’s ending stock is likely to further drop by 19% to 7.5 million tonnes by the end of 2017/18, representing for 45% of world stocks.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.94% to settled at 4972 while prices up 50 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21264 and below same could see a test of 21167 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21464, a move above could see prices testing 21567.

Trading Ideas:  

*Cotton trading range for the day is 21167-21567.

*Cotton prices ended with gains tracking spot demand supported by poor response to the reserve auction in China.

*China sold 24,400 tonnes of cotton at auction of state reserves, which represents 76.1% of total cotton made available at auction.

*Moreover, China Feb cotton imports up 145% on year to 138,100 tonnes as per industry association.

*Cotton prices in spot market gained by 230.00 rupees and settled at 20860.00 rupees.

               

-www.kediaadvisory.com

 

Views express by all participants are for information & acadamic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before refering below views. Click Here For Disclaimer