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Published on 18/01/2019 10:05:50 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Chana trading range for the day is 4218-4330 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

Gold

Gold prices steadied amid firmer dollar offset expectations of a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle. Risks to the U.S. economic recovery, no end in sight to a partial government shutdown and volatile stock markets have made several Federal Reserve officials call for patience before raising interest rates again.

Echoing sentiments, Fed’s latest report on the economy said businesses across the United States have become less optimistic in recent months. U.S. consumers this month were the most downbeat on the economy since November 2016, a third straight drop after expectations reached a 16-year high just three months earlier, as the partial government shutdown wears on toward a fourth week.

The U.S. government shutdown over President Donald Trump’s call for Congress to fund a wall he promised to build on the U.S.- Mexican border is threatening another campaign pledge to make rules easier to navigate for banks and corporations.

The partial shutdown, sparked by a standoff between Democrats and Republicans over how to address Trump’s demand, is already the longest ever, entering its 27th day on Thursday with no signs of a resolution. Britain’s last-minute scramble to shape its exit from the EU, its biggest policy upheaval in half a century, hit the rocks as Prime Minister Theresa May and opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn dug in their heels for competing visions.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.99% to settled at 10522 while prices down -18 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 32186 and below same could see a test of 32103 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 32371, a move above could see prices testing 32473.  

Trading Ideas:   

* Gold trading range for the day is 32103-32473.

* Gold prices steadied amid firmer dollar offset expectations of a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle.

* Fed’s latest report on the economy said businesses across the United States have become less optimistic in recent months.

* PM May narrowly won a confidence vote overnight and invited other party leaders for talks to try to break the impasse on a deal.

Silver    

Silver dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported on concerns surrounding a U.S. government logjam and Brexit. The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength that should continue to underpin the economy.

Other data on Thursday showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region rebounded in January from near a 2-1/2-year low, driven by a surge in new orders. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that recent economic developments have been weaker than expected and further monetary stimulus was needed.

Economic activity expanded in most of the US, with eight of 12 Federal Reserve districts reporting modest-to-moderate growth, according to the latest release of US Fed's Beige Book on economic conditions, and this supported the greenback.

The consumer price index (CPI) measured according to EU-harmonised standards, or HICP, for December gained 0.3% on the month and 1.7% on the year, with provisional CPI figures verified at 0.1% on the month and 1.7% on the year.

Prices for US imports declined 1% in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, after a drop of 1.9% in November. The monthly decline entirely reflected lower oil prices. The cost of imported petroleum fell 11.6% in December after falling 16% the prior month. Technically now Silver is getting support at 39248 and below same could see a test of 39095 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39642, a move above could see prices testing 39883.       

Trading Ideas:   

* Silver trading range for the day is 39095-39883.

* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported on concerns surrounding a U.S. government logjam and Brexit.

* European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that recent economic developments have been weaker than expected and further monetary stimulus was needed.

* Prices for US imports declined 1% in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, after a drop of 1.9% in November.

Crude oil

Crude oil dropped as news of U.S. crude production rising to an all-time high added to worries of a new glut forming. OPEC said it cut oil output sharply in December before a new supply-limiting accord took effect, suggesting producers have made a strong start to averting a new glut.

In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said its oil output fell by 751,000 barrels per day (bpd), month on month, to 31.58 million bpd in December, due to cutbacks led by Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iran.

OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed in December to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd from Jan. 1. OPEC's share of that cut is 800,000 bpd. U.S. crude production quickly approached an unprecedented 12 million barrels per day (bpd) just as worries about weakening demand emerge.

American crude oil production C-OUT-T-EIA reached a record 11.9 million bpd in the week ending Jan. 11, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday, up from 11.7 million bpd last week, which was already the highest national output in the world. U.S. output has soared by 2.4 million bpd since January 2018, stoking fears of a supply glut.

The EIA also said gasoline stockpiles climbed 7.5 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations for a 2.8 million-barrel gain. At 255.6 million barrels, gasoline stocks were at their highest weekly level since February, 2017. Crudeoil on MCX settled up 0.05% at 3688.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -22.03% to settled at 8846, now Crudeoil is getting support at 3640 and below same could see a test of 3592 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3727, a move above could see prices testing 3766.     

Trading Ideas:   

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3592-3766.

* Crude oil dropped as news of U.S. crude production rising to an all-time high added to worries of a new glut forming.

* OPEC leaves 2019 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.29mbpd and trims 2019 non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast by 60bpd to 2.1mbpd

* OPEC says Decembers oil output fell by 751k bpd to 31.58mbpd, led by cuts in Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iran

Naturalgas 

Naturalgas on MCX settled unchanged at 247.90 while prices continue its roller coaster ride at the height of the heating season, after extreme volatility gripped the market in the fall amid more-than-a-decade low natural gas inventories ahead of the winter.

Prices gained this week as the market gained confidence that the severe cold gripping the United States will persist longer than previously thought, driving up heating demand and taxing gas stockpiles.

Yesterday the EIA reported Thursday that U.S. supplies of natural gas fell by 81bcf for the week ended Jan. 11, a bit more than the 77bcf decline expected but still well below the five-year average decline of 218 billion. While today's sentiments will remain weak as CME Raises Natural Gas Margins for February Futures by 9.5 Pct.

Cme Raises Natural Gas Henry Hub Future (Ng) Margins By 9.5 Percent To $4,600 Per Contract From $4,200 For Feb. 2019. Cme Says Initial Margin Rates Are 110 Percent Of These Levels. Cme Says Rates Will Be Effective After The Close Of Business On Jan. 18. Updated forecasts show below-average temperatures persisting over the next two weeks, with the cold snap drifting eastward from the Midwest toward the East Coast.

Traders were anticipating the cold would linger, but weather models available last week didn’t give them the confidence to take long positions in natural gas futures heading into the weekend, according to Bespoke Weather Services. Technically market is under fresh selling and now getting support at 241.3 and below same could see a test of 234.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 255.1, a move above could see prices testing 262.2.         

Trading Ideas:   

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 234.6-262.2.

* Natural gas ended slightly firmer as news of a small weekly withdrawal offset forecasts that extreme cold will blanket much of the nation through February.

* The U.S. EIA said utilities pulled just 81 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from inventories during the warmer than normal week ended Jan. 11.

* Cold forecasts for the next few weeks sparked renewed concerns about low stockpiles and revived the extreme volatility seen at the end of 2018.

Copper    

Copper on MCX settled up 0.43% at 423.25 gained on short covering as China's move to inject liquidity into the financial system boosted expectations of higher demand in the world's top industrial metals consumer.

The People's Bank of China is injecting $37 billion through seven-day reverse bond repurchase agreements and 150 billion yuan through 28-day reverse repos. Shanghai copper has flipped into backwardation amid a promise of VAT cuts in China, which has increased near-term demand for physical copper.

The tax reductions are not expected to be formalised until March but Jinrui Futures said their implementation could result in a 400 yuan a tonne boost to the ShFE copper price for every percentage point VAT decrease.

Prices at the close showed a 10 yuan a tonne backwardation between the March and April ShFE copper contracts and a 120 yuan a tonne backwardation from April to May. Last night the US dollar increased against the euro, which was dragged lower by weak economic data, while the pound gained on hopes of a second Brexit referendum. British Prime Minister Theresa May met lawmakers to find a way out of an impasse over how Britain should leave the EU, after her plan was resoundingly rejected by parliament.

While she has repeatedly rejected a second referendum, some lawmakers have been very vocal in support of a new vote. Now a day ahead Economic data slated for release today include the US industrial output for December and University of Michigan consumer confidence index for January.

New York Fed President John Williams is scheduled to speak about the US economic outlook and monetary policy at the New Jersey Bankers Association's Economic Leadership Forum. Technically market is getting support at 420.3 and below same could see a test of 417.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 425.3, a move above could see prices testing 427.3.  

Trading Ideas:   

* Copper trading range for the day is 417.3-427.3.

* Copper prices gained as China's move to inject liquidity into the financial system boosted expectations of higher demand.

* China's central bank said it will make another big cash injection through open market operations on Thursday, following its biggest-ever net liquidity injection a day earlier.

* China’s economy is expected to cool further this year as domestic demand weakens and exports are hit by U.S. tariffs.

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 1.71% at 181.60 tracking firmness from Shanghai zinc was the top performer, rising as much as 2.5 percent to 21,380 yuan a tonne, the most since Oct. 25. The metal, used to galvanise steel, is set to gain around 5 percent this week for its best week since November on signs the United States and top metals consumer China are closer to resolving their long-running trade dispute.

Trade officials from the United States and China are in discussions to reopen China's market to U.S. chicken exports, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the discussions.

Last night the US dollar increased against the euro, which was dragged lower by weak economic data, while the pound gained on hopes of a second Brexit referendum. British Prime Minister Theresa May met lawmakers to find a way out of an impasse over how Britain should leave the EU, after her plan was resoundingly rejected by parliament.

While she has repeatedly rejected a second referendum, some lawmakers have been very vocal in support of a new vote. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Thursday January 17 that it was a good time for the US central bank to pause interest rate hikes given the uncertainty in the economic outlook.

Last night base metals ended mixed as LME zinc jumped over 1%, aluminium gained 0.57%, copper rose 0.33%, lead fell 0.6%, and nickel lost 0.17%. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.34% to settled at 3310 while prices up 3.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 178.9 and below same could see a test of 176.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 183.2, a move above could see prices testing 184.8.       

Trading Ideas:   

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 176.2-184.8.

*  Zinc prices remained supported amid China's policymakers are pledging to step up stimulus measures this year.

*  PBOC is injecting 250 billion yuan ($37 billion) through seven-day reverse bond repurchase agreements and 150 billion yuan through 28-day reverse repos.

*  China’s economic growth is expected to slow to 6.3 percent this year, which would be the weakest in 29 years, from an expected 6.6 percent in 2018.

Nickel    

Nickel on MCX settled down -0.16% at 821.40 dropped on fresh selling tracking weakness from LME nickel which shed 0.3 percent to close at$11,590 a tonne as a combination of uncertain macro elements, including a slowdown of China’s economy, was curbing activity on metals markets. “Broadly, conviction remains low.

Some metals gained, helped as China announced more stimulus, with the country’s central bank injecting more cash into the financial system, bringing the amount for the week to 1.14 trillion yuan ($168.74 billion). Also the discount of cash LME nickel to the three-month contract surged to $66.50 from $9.00 the previous day.

The spread had tightened due to temporary factors related to the expiry of an LME monthly nickel futures contract on Wednesday. Last night the US dollar increased against the euro, which was dragged lower by weak economic data, while the pound gained on hopes of a second Brexit referendum. British Prime Minister Theresa May met lawmakers to find a way out of an impasse over how Britain should leave the EU, after her plan was resoundingly rejected by parliament.

While she has repeatedly rejected a second referendum, some lawmakers have been very vocal in support of a new vote. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Thursday January 17 that it was a good time for the US central bank to pause interest rate hikes given the uncertainty in the economic outlook.

Now a day ahead Economic data slated for release today include the US industrial output for December and University of Michigan consumer confidence index for January. Technically market is getting support at 813.9 and below same could see a test of 806.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 828.4, a move above could see prices testing 835.4.          

Trading Ideas:   

* Nickel trading range for the day is 806.4-835.4.

* Nickel dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid falling stockpiles and a tightening of time spreads suggested an undersupplied market.

* Stockpiles in exchange warehouses are near multi-year lows and the price of cash nickel surged, suggesting a shortage of nearby material.

* The nickel market will likely be fairly balanced in 2019 after a small deficit of 40,000 tonnes in 2018.

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.19% at 131.45 gained on fresh buying as China's move to inject liquidity into the financial system boosted expectations of higher demand in the world's top industrial metals consumer. The People's Bank of China is injecting $37 billion through seven-day reverse bond repurchase agreements and 150 billion yuan through 28-day reverse repos.

While concerns are still prevails after a vote by U.S. lawmakers cleared the way for sanctions to be lifted on major producer Rusal, potentially increasing supply. The US Senate on Wednesday rejected legislation to keep sanctions on companies linked to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, including Rusal.

In December, the U.S. Treasury said it would lift sanctions on Rusal, the world’s largest aluminium producer outside China. Benchmark LME aluminium fell 0.1 percent to $1,858 a tonne in closing open outcry trading, recouping losses after touching an intraday low of $1,822.50. Last night the US dollar increased against the euro, which was dragged lower by weak economic data, while the pound gained on hopes of a second Brexit referendum.

British Prime Minister Theresa May met lawmakers to find a way out of an impasse over how Britain should leave the EU, after her plan was resoundingly rejected by parliament. While she has repeatedly rejected a second referendum, some lawmakers have been very vocal in support of a new vote. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Thursday January 17 that it was a good time for the US central bank to pause interest rate hikes given the uncertainty in the economic outlook.

Technically market is getting support at 129.8 and below same could see a test of 128 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 132.7, a move above could see prices testing 133.8.               

Trading Ideas:   

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 128-133.8.

* Aluminium fell after a vote by U.S. lawmakers cleared the way for sanctions to be lifted on major producer Rusal, potentially increasing supply.

* The U.S. Senate rejected legislation to keep sanctions on companies linked to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, including aluminium firm Rusal

* Aluminium maker Norsk Hydro said the Brazilian state of Para had lifted a production embargo on its Alunorte alumina facility.

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 0.62% at 1602.8 tracking firmness in spot demand amid low supply. However, upside seen limited amid expectations of higher acreage under mint in 2019 due to lucrative prices throughout last year.

Export demand of oil and its derivatives in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices. Farmers have started preparing to harvest mentha this time in many villages of Saheb Tehsil. Actually, this time demand was high in the market and availability of Mentha Oil was low.

Crop in India also decreased. In such a situation, there was a demand for Mentha Oil in China too. Farmers and businessmen are hoping that this time the harvest of mentha will be more. Because for a few years the price of Mentha was very low. Since last few years the number has been steady to lower. But in response to decent appreciation in last years’ prices, farmers sowing improved resulting in rise in production prospects.

Therefore, the total availability of oil will rise this year. As of now traders expect a 20-25% rise in sowing versus last year. It should be noted that this year’s production expectation of 38500- 39000 MT remains slightly above the average production of 36,968 MT productions seen in between 2013- 2018.  Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1739.50 per 1kg.

Spot prices was down by Rs.-0.70/-.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.12% to settled at 708 while prices up 9.8 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1588.6 and below same could see a test of 1574.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1615.5, a move above could see prices testing 1628.2.      

Trading Ideas:   

* Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1574.4-1628.2.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1739.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-0.70/-.

* Mentha oil prices gained tracking firmness in spot demand amid low supply.

* However, upside seen limited amid expectations of higher acreage under mint in 2019 due to lucrative prices throughout last year.

* Export demand of oil in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled up by 2.35% at 3753 amid expectations of fresh export demand for soymeal from Iran and other countries. Prices also seen supported by buying by millers in physical markets induced by hopes of fresh demand for meal exports. India's December soymeal exports jumped 42% on year to 240,530 tons, as per Solvent Extractors Association of India data.

Arrivals continued to be lower than trade expectations, despite higher projection of 2018-19 soybean output.  Agriculture ministry projected India's 2018-19 soybean output at 13.46 million tons up from 10.98 million tons a year ago. As per SEA press release soymeal exports up by 42% on year in December to 240,530 tonnes.

Moreover, meal exports are higher by 6% at 994,303 tonnes for the Apr- Dec period compared to last year. USDA in its December update, showed no changes to the India output at 11 mt for 18/19 season, but up 32% on year. USDA pegs soymeal production up 2.2% on month and 22% on year at 75 lakh tonnes in 2018/19 due to increase in crushing by 22% this season.

Arrivals in physical market continued to be below trade expectations as farmers are unwilling to offer their stocks expecting prices to rise further in the coming days. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  12 Rupees to 3674 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.26% to settled at 201600 while prices up 86 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 3694 and below same could see a test of 3635 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3786, a move above could see prices testing 3819.           

Trading Ideas:   

*  Soyabean trading range for the day is 3635-3819.

*  Soyabean prices gained amid expectations of fresh export demand for soymeal from Iran and other countries.

*  India's December soymeal exports jumped 42% on year to 240,530 tons, as per Solvent Extractors Association of India data.

*  NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 384 tonnes to 135374 tonnes.

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  12 Rupees to 3674 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled up by 0.4% at 754.4 on good physical demand. However, gains were limited amid bumper production outlook of soybean for India and lower duties on palm oil import. India imported about 30.47 lakh tones of soybean oil during marketing year 2017-18(Nov,17-Oct,18) compare to 33.16 lakh tonnes of prior year. Indian imported about 264089 tonnes of Soybean oil in month of Oct against the 341402 tonnes of prior month.

In a fortnightly notification, Government increased tariff value of crude soy oil by 1 dollar to $708 per tn for the first half of January. India's y/y imports of crude soy oil for November down by 25.6% on year and 23% on month at 2.04 lakh tonnes. USDA in its latest monthly update forecast India soyoil production at 16.92 lakh tonnes, up 2.2% on month and 22.1% on year. Soyoil imports are unchanged for month at 34 lakh tonnes, but up 14% higher on year.

Consumption pegged at 49.5 lakh tonnes, up 7% compared to last year. U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of November were projected at 2.030 billion lbs, down slightly from stocks totaling 2.041 billion lbs a month earlier. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), whose members account for 95 percent of all U.S. soy crushing, estimated that its members processed 166.959 million bushels of soybeans in November, compared with a record-high 172.346 million in October.

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 761.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 750 and below same could see a test of 746 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 757, a move above could see prices testing 760.            

Trading Ideas:   

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 746-760.

* Ref soyoil prices ended with gains on good physical demand.

* However, gains were limited amid bumper production outlook of soybean for India and lower duties on palm oil import.

* USDA in its latest monthly update forecast India soyoil production at 16.92 lakh tonnes, up 2.2% on month.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 761.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by 0.68% at 547.8 tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices on forecast of declining production in the coming months and improving export data. India has cut import taxes on crude and refined palm oil from Southeast Asian (ASEAN) countries after a request from suppliers.

Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to rise by 10 percent this year, the country's industry association said. Indonesia, the world's top palm producer and exporter, produced 47.6 million tonnes in 2018, Togar Sitanggang, vice chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), said in an industry conference Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to rise to 17.2 million tonnes in 2019, a 4.3 percent increase from the 16.5 million tonnes shipped last year, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). Total production is also forecast to grow by 4 percent to 20.3 million tonnes this year compared to 19.5 million tonnes recorded in 2018.

Malaysia plans to double the mix of palm oil in its biodiesel programme by 2020 in a bid to reduce high domestic stockpiles and boost sustainable energy sources, the government said. Primary Industries Minister Teresa Kok said the government intends to increase the amount of palm oil in its biodiesel blend to 20 percent by next year, up from its ongoing B10 programme which mandates palm oil use at 10 percent.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.89% to settled at 3829 while prices up 3.7 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 545.1 and below same could see a test of 542.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 549.6, a move above could see prices testing 551.3.              

Trading Ideas:   

* CPO trading range for the day is 542.3-551.3.

* Crude palm oil gained tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices on forecast of declining production in the coming months and improving export data.

* Palm oil output in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer, is forecast to rise to 20.3 million tonnes this year.

* Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to rise by 10 percent this year, the country's industry association said.

                Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 2.30 rupees and settled at 544.80 rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled up by 0.65% at 3871 amid reports on diminishing stocks with farmers. Moreover, reports of lower export of mustard seed meal during month of Dec is also adding pressure to mustard seed prices.

Total export of mustard seed meal during month of Dec was reported at 45616 MT compare to 69474 MT of prior year for corresponding period, lower by 34% y/y and 47% on monthly basis. Higher acreage at 6.28 million hectares versus 6.66 million hectares in the corresponding period last year also weighing on prices. NAFED offered to sell 9,286 tons of mustard seeds in Gujarat and nearly 25,000 tons in the markets of Madhya Pradesh.

As per SEA press release rapeseed exports down by 34% on year in December to 45,616 tonnes. The export of rapeseed meal and soybean meal to China is unlikely to resume during current financial year as procedure for registration with MoA, China is too cumbersome, lengthy and time consuming to complete all formalities.

According to Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, Mustard oil mills across the country crushed 550,000 tn of the oilseed in December, up 29.4% on year. Currently rabi area for mustard is high compared to last year acreage as on 04-Jan at 66.4 lakh hectares (lha) against 65 lha last year. Mustard oil imports down about 70% on year to 12,242 tons in November compared to over 40,600 tons last year same month according to SEA latest press release. 

In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 20 Rupees to end at 4089.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Rmseed is getting support at 3843 and below same could see a test of 3816 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3886, a move above could see prices testing 3902.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 3816-3902.

* Mustard seed prices gained amid reports on diminishing stocks with farmers.

*  The area under mustard seed cultivation has touched 66.43 lakh hectares as against 64.99 lakh hac, higher by 2.21% y/y.

*  NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks dropped by 418 tonnes to 9233 tonnes.

*  In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 20 Rupees to end at 4089.4 Rupees per 100 kg.                 

Turmeric                

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.52% at 6520 on expectations of increase in arrivals at the spot markets in the coming days with better moisture content.  Fresh arrivals are expected to increase at the spot market and will remain peak due to the harvesting activities. There are yield concerns from few growing regions as drought conditions and cold weather has not supported the crop; however overall crop in the season will be higher due to increased area.

Turmeric production is expected to be higher this season due to higher acreage in Telangana. As per data released by Commerce Ministry, turmeric exports during the month of Oct 2018, up 33.7% on year to 10,486 tonnes (Vs 7,845 tonnes). Turmeric exports in 2018/19 (Apr-Oct) is up 13.3% at 70,033 tonnes compared to 67,129 last year for the same period. IMD has issued severe cold wave warning for few days in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. As per data released by Commerce Ministry, turmeric exports during the month of Oct 2018 were up 33.7% on year to 10,486 tons compared to 7,845 tons in the same period a year ago. 

Turmeric exports during Apr-Oct were higher by 13.3% at 70,033 tons compared to 67,129 tons in the corresponding period last year. In Telangana, turmeric sowing was reported at 47,791 hectares as compared to 44,956 hectares in the corresponding period last year.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6916.65 Rupees remains unchanged at0 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.74% to settled at 13635, now Turmeric is getting support at 6456 and below same could see a test of 6394 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6584, a move above could see prices testing 6650.        

Trading Ideas:   

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6394-6650.

* Turmeric dropped on expectations of increase in arrivals at the spot markets in the coming days with better moisture content. 

* Fresh arrivals are expected to increase at the spot market and will remain peak due to the harvesting activities.

* There are yield concerns from few growing regions as drought conditions and cold weather has not supported the crop.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6916.65 Rupees remains unchanged at0 Rupees.

Jeera    

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.32% at 17020 on short covering after prices dropped on expectations of beginning of fresh arrivals in the coming days. Despite the recent progress in the sowing activities, area is lower by 9% YoY as per latest data in Gujarat, the largest producer. Further, weather conditions are not so favorable for the crop development.

Cumin acreage improves in Gujarat on reports of providing water in canal for irrigation for rabi crop by govt of Gujarat. As per data release by Agriculture Department of Gujarat, area under cumin in the state is pegged at 3.45 lakh ha, down 10% on year.

Acc. to Commerce Ministry, exports of jeera is down 5% on year in October at 9,025 tonnes compared to 10,458 tn last year but jeera exports in 2018/19 (Apr-Oct) 1.2 lt, up 32.8% compared to exports last year. According to the trade sources, farmers in Gujarat are keen to sow jeera crop in the coming days due to higher prices. However, deficient rainfall in key producing region of Gujarat like Saurashtra and Kutch may lower the acreage.

According to the initial trade estimate, there may not be any increase in the sowing area of jeera because of dry weather. However, if the producing states receive good irrigation facilities through dams then the sowing area could see an increase. 

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 74.05 Rupees to end at 18307.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.34% to settled at 2868, now Jeera is getting support at 16920 and below same could see a test of 16820 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 17100, a move above could see prices testing 17180.  

Trading Ideas:   

* Jeera trading range for the day is 16820-17180.

* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped on expectations of beginning of fresh arrivals in the coming days.

* Despite the recent progress in the sowing activities, area is lower by 9% YoY as per latest data in Gujarat.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 10 tonnes to 607 tonnes.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 74.05 Rupees to end at 18307.4 Rupees per 100 kg.  

Cotton        

Cotton on MCX settled down by -0.24% at 20890 on profit booking after prices gained amid reports of lower production from major producing regions during current year. However, the reports of lower production during current year, is likely to support prices.

Cotton Association of India (CAI), the trade body projected domestic consumption at 32 million bales and exports at 5.1 million bales. CAI trimmed 2018-19 cotton output to 33.5 million bales of 170 kg each as farmers have uprooted nearly 70% plants in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana due to moisture stress.

CAI lowered Gujarat's cotton crop estimate by 150,000 bales and Maharashtra and Telangana by 200,000 bales each. India is likely to produce 33.5 million bales of cotton in the 2018/19 season that started on Oct. 1, down 1.5 percent from an earlier estimate, a leading trade body said.

The world's biggest cotton producer had harvested 36.5 million bales in the previous season. "Farmers have uprooted cotton plants on about 70 to 80 percent area due to moisture deficiency and now there is no scope for third and fourth picking," Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of India, told.

The drop in output is likely to lead to lower cotton shipments from India, allowing rivals such as the United States, Brazil and Australia to increase cargoes to key Asian buyers such as China and Pakistan.

  Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.4% to settled at 7021 while prices down -50 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 20830 and below same could see a test of 20760 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21000, a move above could see prices testing 21100.     

Trading Ideas:   

* Cotton trading range for the day is 20760-21100.

* Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid reports of lower production from major producing regions during current year.

* Cotton Association of India (CAI) cuts 2018-19 production estimate by 5.25 lakh bales this month to 335 lakh bales for the year 2018-19.

* The CAI has reduced the crop estimate for Gujarat by 1.50 lakh bales and for Maharashtra and Telangana by 2 lakh bales each.

* Cotton prices in spot market gained by 60.00 rupees and settled at 20660.00 rupees. 

Chana

Chana on NCDEX settled up by 0.82% at 4285 on short covering amid reports of diminishing stocks and lower acreage. Area under chana is lagging and supplies are dwindling in the country due to lower imports and good consumption. Chana acreage is at 91.6 lakh ha, down 10.6% compared to last year acreage.

The govt have extend import curbs on all varieties of peas by 3 months until the end of December. Chana stocks are diminishing due to higher domestic consumption and lower imports of chana due to 60% import duty since March 2018. Chana exports from the country increased by 207% to 1.61 lt on year for Apr-Oct while imports down by 88% for same period.

The National Agricultural Co-operative Marketing Federation of India Ltd (NAFED) continued to offload Chana in the physical markets. NAFED sold 83,454 tons of gram in Andhra Pradesh and 42,049 tons in Telangana.

Area under chana has decreased drastically in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Area under chana is lower by 11.32lakh ha so far on all India basis. As season is heading towards an end now, any huge make up is unlikely now. Condition for rabi crop is not good and fear of lower rainfall is increasing for next kharif season. So, all pulses are likely to move up in the second half of the year. Farmers had covered over 100 lakh ha area last year. 

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.66% to settled at 40760 while prices up 35 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4251 and below same could see a test of 4218 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4307, a move above could see prices testing 4330.           

Trading Ideas:   

* Chana trading range for the day is 4218-4330.

* Chana gained on short covering amid reports of diminishing stocks and lower acreage.

* Area under chana is lagging and supplies are dwindling in the country due to lower imports and good consumption.

*   NCDEX accredited warehouses Chana stocks gained by 29 tonnes to 11199 tonnes.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -34.25 Rupees to end at 4152.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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