Published on 19/05/2017 11:08:47 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

CPO trading range for the day is 508.4-518.2 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports | #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips #


Gold

Gold on MCX settled up 0.3% at 28705 as support seen after Rupee weakened over 1.1%, its steepest fall in 21-month against the US dollar as concern over US President Donald Trump spurred a sell off in emerging market currencies. Also Comex Gold rose to a two-week high to an overnight peak of $1265, the most since May 1. Pressure on US President Donald Trump deepened after reports that he tried to interfere with a federal investigation.

This follows a turbulent week after Trump fired FBI director James Comey and discussed sensitive national security information with Russia’s foreign minister, causing investors to question whether Trump can push through tax cuts and deregulation. From physical side SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings fell 0.14 percent to 850.71 tonnes vs 851.89 tonnes on Wednesday. In terms of ounces, holdings fell to 27,351,091.55 ounces from 27,389,151.08.

Meanwhile, a recent run of disappointing U.S. economic data, including inflation, retail sales and housing starts has also weighed on the dollar, tempering expectations for higher interest rates. Odds for a June rate hike dropped to around 60%, down from more than 80% a week ago, while odds for a second rate hike by December fell to 30% from around 50% in the preceding week.

The Fed has signaled it intends to raise rates twice more this year, after a quarter-point hike in March. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.66% to settled at 4180 while prices up 86 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 28514 and below same could see a test of 28322 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28951, a move above could see prices testing 29196.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 28322-29196.

* Gold rallied as concern over US President Donald Trump spurred a sell off in emerging market currencies.

* President Donald Trump, striking a defiant tone after days of political tumult, denied colluding with Russia during his 2016 campaign.

* Gold pulled back from two-week highs after stronger US manufacturing and initial jobless claims data dented the ‘flight to safety’ trade.

 

Silver

Silver on MCX settled down -0.79% at 38889 dropped in volatile session despite Indian rupee weakened over 1.1%, its steepest fall in 21-month and Comex Silver gained to settled at $16.74 a troy ounce, after hitting its highest since May 1 at $17.03 touching the strongest level in around two weeks as investors feeling increasingly nervous over the future of Donald Trump's U.S. presidency sought safe havens for their money.

Silver prices, surprisingly, did not follow the gold prices and in fact had a period of consolidation and ranging yesterday. While the gold prices rocketed higher, the silver prices made a feeble attempt to break through the $17 region which was promptly sold into and now the prices sit below the $17, looking pretty weak. Silver markets had a very strong move during the day as initially shut higher, pulled back to the open at the day, and then slammed into the $17 level.

A lot of this move would have been due to the panic over President Trump and the Russian speaking, and whatever is going on behind the scenes there. Ultimately, that has nothing to do with the Silver markets, and believe this automatic reaction will probably fade out. The recent string of controversies intensified doubts that Trump would be able to follow through on his campaign promises for tax cuts, deregulation and fiscal stimulus.

The deepening political turmoil dampened demand for risk-sensitive assets, such as global equities, and sparked a rally in assets perceived as safe, such as the yen, bullion and U.S. Treasuries, which are often used as a hedge in times of political uncertainty. Technically market is getting support at 38495 and below same could see a test of 38101 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39329, a move above could see prices testing 39769.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 38101-39769.

* Silver dropped despite investors feeling increasingly nervous over the future of Trump's US presidency sought safe havens for their money.

* Gold gained as speculation seen that Trump would be able to follow through on his campaign promises for tax cuts, deregulation and fiscal stimulus.

* President Donald Trump is facing heavy criticism for his supposed ties to Russia and handling of classified intelligence.

 

Crudeoil

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 1.49% at 3203 pushing back toward monthly highs as calm returned to Wall Street following yesterday's panic over political turbulence. Crude oil gained on growing optimism that big producing countries will extend output cuts to curb a persistent glut in crude, with key benchmarks heading for a second week of gains. While oil prices have been trapped in a tight range in recent weeks as rising U.S. production has erased the effects of output cuts by the OPEC and other countries, including Russia.

But market watchers are growing more confident that OPEC, Russia and other big producers will extend cuts of almost 1.8mbpd until the end of March 2018. U.S. producers are not party to any agreements capping production. On May 25, leaders from OPEC and other producing countries will meet in Vienna to decide on output policy. Now investors' optimism that OPEC would seek an extension of the current deal to cut global production offset concerns over the rising level of U.S. shale production.

The EIA said Wednesday, crude oil inventories fell by 1.75mbls last week, which was the sixth-straight week of declining crude stockpiles but the dip in inventories fell short of expectations of a draw of around 2.4 million barrels. Despite the high level of compliance from OPEC members with the deal to rein in supply, global production remains above the five-year average, as non-OPEC members, who are not part of the supply-cut agreement have ramped up production. Technically market is getting support at 3140 and below same could see a test of 3076 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3246, a move above could see prices testing 3288.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3076-3288.

* Crude settled higher as investors remained optimistic that OPEC would reach an agreement to extend the current supply-cut.

* Prices have been trapped in a tight range in recent weeks as rising US production has erased the effects of output cuts.

* Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed earlier this week that production cuts needed to be extended for a period of nine months until March 2018.

 

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled up 1.51% at 207.80 edged higher on Thursday, despite data showing that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose more than expected last week. Yesterday the US EIA said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 68bcf in the week ended May 12, above forecasts for a build of 61 billion. That compared with a gain of 45bcf in the preceding week, an increase of 73 billion a year earlier and a five-year average rise of 87bcf.

Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.369tcf, according to the US EIA, 13.6% lower than levels at this time a year ago but 10.8% above the five-year average for this time of year. Meanwhile, the latest U.S. weather model called for mild temperatures over the next two weeks, which should reduce demand during that time. Meanwhile the southern, and eastern US will remain very warm highs of 80s to lower 90s, including major East Coast cities.

A strong weather system with valley rain and mountain snows will track through the west-central US today with cooling then expected to push into the central US late in the week through the weekend, including Texas. Cooler than normal conditions will reach the eastern US next week. Overall, nat gas demand will continue to run slightly stronger than normal.

Overall, the total supply/demand balance should be positive and is estimated to reach almost 120 bcf this week. In absolute terms, this kind of volume is bullish for natural gas prices. Now technically market is getting support at 205 and below same could see a test of 202.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.9, a move above could see prices testing 214.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 202.2-214.

* Naturalgas edged higher despite data showing that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose more than expected last week.

* The latest U.S. weather model called for mild temperatures over the next two weeks, which should reduce demand during that time.

* EIA said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the US rose by 68bcf in the week ended May 12.

 

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.39% at 364.55 in volatile session as uncertainty about U.S. President Donald Trump's future undermined expectations of a boost to infrastructure spending in the United States. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed 0.5 per cent lower to $US5,581 a tonne, after earlier touching a one-week low of $US5,485.

Pressure seen after weaker April economic data from China, which accounts for nearly half of global consumption of industrial metals, the second quarter normally sees stronger demand for industrial metals ahead of the construction season in the third quarter. As a base metal that is a staple building block for infrastructure around the world, copper will take clues from the economic data in both China and the US.

Over recent year Chinese economy cooled over recent years, copper entered into a bear market that took the price to last January's lows. China caught an economic cold and copper caught a case of pneumonia, falling by over 58% from 2011 through the beginning of 2016. However, it was the promise of U.S. infrastructure rebuilding that caused the most recent rally in the red metal.

While economic growth in the U.S. and China and the potential for legislation that fulfills the promises of the Trump Administration will dictate the path of least resistance for the price of copper, it now seems that there could be a bumpy road ahead. Given that the administration and Congress are becoming distracted with the politics of controversy. Now technically market is getting support at 359.1 and below same could see a test of 353.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 368, a move above could see prices testing 371.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 353.5-371.3.

* Copper recovered on rupee weakness while uncertainty about Donald Trump's future undermined expectations of a boost to infrastructure spending in US.

* China and U.S. domestic policy will dominate the path of least resistance for copper and other base metals

* Weaker April economic data from China, which accounts for nearly half of global consumption of industrial metals

 

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 0.06% at 164.45 as support seen after Indian rupee weakened over 1.1%, its steepest fall in 21-month against the US dollar as concern over US President Donald Trump spurred. LME Zinc fell 1 per cent to $US2,533 as uncertainty about U.S. President Donald Trump's future undermined expectations of a boost to infrastructure spending in the United States. Allegations that Trump tried to interfere with a federal investigation have raised the possibility of him having to resign from the presidency, putting his pro-growth policies at risk.

While sentiments improved after the update that China's production of zinc fell 5.6 percent to 474,000 tonnes, its lowest in more than two years, while output of steelmaking ingredient iron ore was at its weakest in a year, according to the National Statistics Bureau. Base metals and iron ore output in the world's top metals producer all showed an annual increase, except for zinc.

The lower U.S. currency helped offset some of the negative sentiment because when it falls dollar-denominated commodities become cheaper for non-U.S. firms, potentially boosting demand. Focus is on large holdings of cash contracts and warrants in aluminium, zinc, lead, tin and copper, which could mean tighter supplies on the LME market.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.55% to settled at 3422 while prices up 0.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 161 and below same could see a test of 157.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 166.5, a move above could see prices testing 168.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 157.4-168.4.

* Zinc on MCX settled up 0.06% at 164.45 as support seen after Indian rupee weakened over 1.1%, its steepest fall in 21-month.

* LME Zinc fell as uncertainty about US President's future undermined expectations of a boost to infrastructure spending in the US.

* China's production of zinc fell 5.6 percent to 474,000 tonnes, its lowest in more than two years, according to the NSB.

 

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled up 1.5% at 594.20 tracking firmness from LME Nickel which jumped nearly 1.04% to settled at $9,030.00 a metric ton despite investors shunned risk and bet on rising supply from Indonesia and Philippines. Pressure seen as Investors were shelving rosy hopes for the United States reform and rethinking strategies premised on Donald Trump´s economic growth promises on Wednesday, as the President faced his loudest criticism yet over possible collusion between his election campaign and Russia.

Sentiments remain weak for Nickel prices on the expectations of higher supplies from top ore producer the Philippines pushed nickel prices down to $US9,030, the lowest since May 8. Nickel prices have now moved lower because of growing concerns about a surplus. Expectations for a surplus rose after a surprise reversal of the Indonesian mining laws in January. Producers that have committed to build smelters in the next five years are now allowed to export any excess low-grade nickel ore.

Delays surrounding the closure of Filipino nickel ore mines, and questions over whether these will actually occur, are also affecting the outlook. The Philippines accounts for around 20% of global nickel ore capacity and around half the nation’s nickel output appeared at risk of closure. Mine suspensions, alongside unfavourable weather and maintenance, meant Filipino nickel production fell -47% in the March quarter.

Nevertheless, the directive to close mines is now under review following an appeal by miners, while the minister instigating the crackdown, Gina Lopez, failed to win approval to retain her position. Now technically market is getting support at 584.8 and below same could see a test of 575.5 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 600, a move above could see prices testing 605.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 575.5-605.9.

* Nickel prices gained more that 1.5% despite investors shunned risk and bet on rising supply from Indonesia and Philippines.

* Metals prices found little support from data that showed Chinese real-estate prices climbed in April.

* Demand for industrial metals expected to slow in China amid renewed focus on consumption

 

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.97% at 124.90 despite political uncertainty in the United States hit hopes that President Donald Trump would be able to boost infrastructure spending. Base metals on MCX got support as Indian rupee weakened over 1.1%, its steepest fall in 21-month against the US dollar as concern over US President Donald Trump spurred. Weakness can seen as China's growth is set for its weakest patch since the global financial crisis as authorities pull back on stimulus.

Also China's banking regulator has tightened disclosure rules on lenders' wealth management products. Separately, the China Banking Regulatory Commission unveiled plans to publish a flurry of regulations later this year to control financial risks. A Chinese metals industry body said on Wednesday it was concerned about the fairness of a U.S. probe into aluminium imports, following earlier concerns raised by the country's Commerce Ministry. "Our association is highly concerned about this, and worried about the fairness of the probe and its results," China's Non Ferrous Metals Industry Association said in a statement.

The U.S. Commerce Department launched an investigation last month into whether aluminium imports from China and elsewhere were compromising U.S. national security. The industry body said it was worried the U.S. action could damage free trade and the development of the global aluminium industry. China's Commerce Ministry said last month it was concerned by the probe and hoped to resolve the dispute through talks. Technically market is getting support at 123.4 and below same could see a test of 121.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 125.9, a move above could see prices testing 126.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 121.7-126.7.

* Aluminium gained despite political uncertainty in the US hit hopes that President Donald Trump would be able to boost infrastructure spending.

* Base metals got support as Indian rupee weakened over 1.1%, its steepest fall in 21-month against the US dollar.

* US Commerce Department launched an investigation into whether aluminium imports from China and elsewhere were compromising US national security.

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -0.32% at 961.4 amid reports that carryover stocks are huge against the current consumption level. As per sources, local demand is moderate from both the local industries as well as stockists. The arrivals have slightly increased in the major spot markets of Uttar Pradesh, to meet the existing demand for the produce. Also in recent years the production and consumption of synthetic mentha has increased which has impacted the demand of natural mentha.

As on now stock positions of Mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 4499 drums, while in process were 24 drums, both are 24 drums more in comparison to the previous day. Short term outlook remain weak as first of all prices are trading below 980 level mark while the huge carryover stock of mentha oil and also prices trading with weakness leading to a glut with synthetic mint oil garnering larger share of the market.

Sentimental weakness will continious for mentha demand as the key consumption sector (Tobacco products) is witnesing slow down in demand. Prices had been under pressure since March after Yogi Adityanath, the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, has banned paan chewing and gutka or tobacco in all government offices in the state.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1070.10 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-6.10/-.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.08% to settled at 1345 while prices down -3.1 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 956.7 and below same could see a test of 952.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 965.3, a move above could see prices testing 969.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Menthaoil trading range for the day is 952.1-969.3.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1070.10 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-6.10/-.

* Mentha oil settled down amid reports that carryover stocks are huge against the current consumption level.

* As per sources, local demand is moderate from both the local industries as well as stockists.

* The arrivals have slightly increased in the major spot markets of Uttar Pradesh, to meet the existing demand for the produce.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled down by -1.16% at 2820 tracking weakness in spot demand and due to forecasts of ample supplies in global markets. Soybean farmers in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, the two top bean producing states of India, are offloading stocks to raise funds for sowing on prospects of likely early arrival of monsoon rains. With prospects of good monsoon rains this year and sharp fall in prices farmers' have accelerated selling in local mandis at desperate prices.

All India soybean arrivals stood at 200,000-235,000 bags (90 kilogram per bag) Tuesday compared to 145,000-180,000 bags. Farmers in MP are expected to offload 70-80% of their stocks to raise fund for sowing. Total arrivals in Madhya Pradesh were at 80,000-110,000 bags. In Maharashtra inventories stood at 80,000-90,000 bags while in Rajasthan soybean arrivals were at 15,000-20,000 bags.

Informa Economics raised its planting forecast of the United States, the world's biggest bean producer for 2017 to 89.662 million acres as compared to 89.5 million acres estimated in March. Brazil's statistics agency Conab raised its estimate of the country's 2016-17 crops to a record of 113 million tons compared to 110.2 million tons estimated during last month.

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange of Argentina also raised 2016-17 soybean crop estimates to 57.5 million tons compare to its previous estimate of 56.5 million tons. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 10 Rupees to 3017 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.33% to settled at 128460 while prices down -33 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 2798 and below same could see a test of 2777 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 2842, a move above could see prices testing 2865.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 2777-2865.

* Soyabean prices dropped tracking weakness in spot demand and due to forecasts of ample supplies in global markets.

* Farmers in MP are expected to offload 70-80% of their stocks to raise fund for sowing

* NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks dropped by 2568 tonnes to 122151 tonnes.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 10 Rupees to 3017 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled down by -0.47% at 630.35 on profit booking after prices remained supported tracking global cues amid lower inventories in United States. Soyoil prices have been on a decline as market participants are concerned over higher global production of the commodity. According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, soyoil prices in the key Indore market have fallen to 600-605 rupees per 10 kg from 700-708 rupees early this year.

Adequate availability of imported soyoil in domestic markets also put pressure on prices of domestically-produced cooking oil. India is the world's leading importer of the edible oil. Apart from the disparity in soyoil prices, weak demand for soymeal from overseas as well as domestic buyers has also made crushing unviable for millers.

Madhya Pradesh is the largest producer of the oilseed in the country and accounts for over 50% of total soybean output. Soyoil end stocks fell in US in April on lower production following decreasing crushing activity. US oil inventories at the end of April fell 11% as compared to same period a year ago. Soyoil inventories at end of April were 1.725 billion lbs as compared with 1.943 billion lbs a year earlier.

The US Agriculture Department said private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2016-17 marketing year. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 632 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.61% to settled at 48040 while prices down -2.95 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 629 and below same could see a test of 626 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 634, a move above could see prices testing 636.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 626-636.

* Ref soyoil prices dropped on profit booking after prices remained supported tracking global cues amid lower inventories in United States.

* Soyoil end stocks fell in US in April on lower production following decreasing crushing activity.

* Soyoil inventories at end of April were 1.725 billion lbs as compared with 1.943 billion lbs a year earlier.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 632 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -0.14% at 513.1 on profit booking after prices remained supported tracking global cues on higher Malaysian palm oil export data. Malaysia palm oil exports during May 1-15 jumped 9% as compared to same period a month ago on robust demand from India & Subcontinents, data showed. Malaysia palm oil exports jumped to 617,697 tons during May 1-15 compared to 567,280 tons for the same period a month ago, DowJones reported citing data from Intertek, a private surveyor.

India's palm oil imports from Malaysia during May 1-15 more than doubled to 135,400 tons as compared to 58,500 tons imported during Apr 1-15. Palm oil import rose 2.25 per cent to 7,52,632 tonnes in April on higher shipment of crude palm oil (CPO), industry body Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) said. India, the world's leading vegetable oil buyer, had imported 7,36,036 tonnes palm oil in April 2016.

The country's total vegetable oil import grew by 7 per cent to 13,39,489 tonnes in April this year, from 12,48,887 tonnes in the year-ago period. Palm oils comprise 62 per cent of the total vegetable oil import. Stocks of crude palm oil in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer, rose to some 1.55m tonnes, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), showed.

This is up 6.5% from last month, and represents a much faster growth than was expected, with inventories fairly flat month-on-month. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.49% to settled at 3632 while prices down -0.7 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 510.7 and below same could see a test of 508.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 515.6, a move above could see prices testing 518.2.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 508.4-518.2.

* Crude palm oil fell on profit booking after prices remained supported tracking global cues on higher Malaysian palm oil export data.

* Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) output likely fell in April, while both exports and domestic consumption likely rose

* CPO production in Indonesia, the world's top producer of the vegetable oil, likely fell to 2.90 million tonnes from 3.08 million tonnes in March

* Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 1.30 rupees and settled at 519.00 rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -1.55% at 3686 tracking weakness in spot demand as farmers hoard stocks. Mustard seed arrivals across India are under pressure as decreasing mandi rates forced farmers to hoard their stocks. Farmers are hoarding stocks on expectation of higher prices in near term. All India rape/mustard seed arrivals stood at 245,000 bags (80 kilogram per bag) 255,000 bags on previous day.

Total arrivals in Rajasthan were around 125,000 bags, in Gujarat arrivals stood at 7,000 bags, in Uttar Pradesh inventories stood at 40,000 bags, in Haryana & Punjab mustard arrivals stood at 35,000 while in Madhya Pradesh mustard arrivals were at 8,000 bags. Overall farmers sold 40% of their produces in crop season three months (Fed 15- May 15) to 2.680 million tons. Around 4.095 million tons of mustard crops are still with farmers while 705,000 tons are with stockiest and processors.

Total available stocks till May 15 estimates at 4.8 million tons. However, of the total 6.9 million tons around 29% or 1.975 million tons of seeds were crushed during Feb 15 till May 15. Traders estimate Rajasthan farmers selling Mustard faster than other States/Rajasthan farmers sold 47% crop till 15 May. Uttar Pradesh sold 31% while Punjab & Haryana sold 40% and farmers in Gujarat sold 51% of crops.

In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices remains unchanged at0 Rupees to end at 3767.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.56% to settled at 66950 while prices down -58 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 3658 and below same could see a test of 3630 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3729, a move above could see prices testing 3772.

Trading Ideas:

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 3630-3772.

* Mustard seed prices ended with losses tracking weakness in spot demand as farmers hoard stocks.

* All India rape/mustard seed arrivals stood at 245,000 bags (80 kilogram per bag) 255,000 bags on previous day.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks gained by 444 tonnes to 39762 tonnes.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices remains unchanged at0 Rupees to end at 3767.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -1.2% at 5590 on expectation of good production in the ongoing season due to favourable weather conditions in major producing belts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Turmeric farmers and traders have been hit hard by poor sales during peak season. Many traders and farmers expected good sales of turmeric during the peak period, which started a month ago.

But, this year, for the first time in recent history, both farmers and traders are in agony due to poor production and tepid demand from North India. Due to monsoon failure, turmeric cultivation has been affected. Some farmers are using open and bore wells, while some others are buying water at exorbitant rates to save their standing turmeric crop, but the yield was very poor. Because of this they incurred heavy cultivation charges.

At Sangli market, estimated market supply was at 4000 quintals, down by 500 quintals from previous trading day. At Erode market, estimated market supply was at 3000 quintals, up by 500 quintals as against previous day. At Nizamabad market, estimated market supply was at 6000 quintals, higher by 1000 quintals from previous day’s arrivals. The price of the turmeric showed a decrease.

At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales yard, the finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,211 to Rs. 7,209 a quintal, root variety sold at Rs. 4,869 to Rs. 6,299 a quintal. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5511.65 Rupees dropped -25.85 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.86% to settled at 15800 while prices down -68 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5466 and below same could see a test of 5340 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5704, a move above could see prices testing 5816.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 5340-5816.

* Turmeric prices dropped on expectation of good production in the ongoing season due to favourable weather conditions

* Turmeric farmers and traders have been hit hard by poor sales during peak season.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 30 tonnes to 5815 tonnes.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5511.65 Rupees dropped -25.85 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.06% at 17935 on lower arrivals from the producing regions. The arrivals have now slowed down in the physical market. As per data, about 4,316 tonnes of jeera arrived in May (1-14) compared to 17,494 in April (1-14). On the export front, country the exports increase by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016/17 as per the data release by Dept of commerce, GOI.

The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse increase to 2,176 tonnes, up by 125% in last 15 days. On 1st May, the stocks were only 964 tonnes. Sources estimate India’s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes, lower than the 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimated. Even at the lower crop estimate, jeera exports are projected to range between 100,000-150,000 tonnes, for the year. Exports will happen in spite of higher prices because there is no supplier of jeera available globally.

Syria has a significant share at 30,000-40,000 tonnes, while Turkey is very small at 10,000 tonnes. At Patan market in Patan(Guj.), arrivals were reported at 25 quintals, lower by 25 quintals as compared to previous day. At Rajkot market in Rajkot(Guj.), sources reported arrivals at 320 quintal, lower by 90 quintal as against previous day.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -57.7 Rupees to end at 18350 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.45% to settled at 16431 while prices up 10 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 17715 and below same could see a test of 17490 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 18115, a move above could see prices testing 18290.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 17490-18290.

* Jeera prices ended with gains on lower arrivals from the producing regions.

* Sources estimate India’s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes, lower than the 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimated.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 366 tonnes to 2473 tonnes.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -57.7 Rupees to end at 18350 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cardamom

Cardamom on MCX settled down by -0.84% at 1015.4 on slack demand amid increased arrivals at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. As a result, the prices slipped by around Rs. 50 a kg within a week. Upcountry buyers were buying but not aggressively. Exporters have bought an estimated 40-50 tonnes. Arrivals last week moved up to 463 tonnes from 367 tonnes the previous week. At auction held by Cardamom Planters Association, Santhanpara, in Bodinayakannur 8.2 tonnes arrived and of this 6.5 tonnes were traded.

Maximum price stood at Rs. 1,008 a kg while the average dropped toRs. 877.95 a kg from 962.11 a kg the previous Monday. The individual auction average slipped last week to Rs. 941.41 a kg from 973.40 the previous week. Total arrivals during the current season up to May 13, 2017 stood at 17,130 tonnes and the sales were at 16,293 tonnes.

Individual auction average for the season as on May 13 was at Rs. 1,129.33 a kg. The growing regions have received good summer showers and hence the next crop is likely to hit the market by mid-June. Sources expects higher Cardamom production current year due to favourable weather condition in major growing region.

Current year new crop will come from July-August month. Cardamom imports reported higher in Indian market from Guatemala due to lower prices. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.45% to settled at 429 while prices down -8.6 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 998.6 and below same could see a test of 981.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1028.5, a move above could see prices testing 1041.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Cardamom trading range for the day is 981.9-1041.7.

* Cardamom prices dropped on slack demand amid increased arrivals at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

* Arrivals last week moved up to 463 tonnes from 367 tonnes the previous week.

* At auction held by Cardamom Planters Association, Santhanpara, in Bodinayakannur 8.2 tonnes arrived and of this 6.5 tonnes were traded.

* Cardamom prices in spot market dropped by 11.00 rupees and settled at 1190.00 rupees.

 

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled down by -0.71% at 21100 due to reports of higher supplies from major producing belts. Besides, weak domestic as well as export demand also fuelled the downtrend. Sowing of cotton has begun on a strong note in the key growing regions of North India such as Punjab and Haryana, and Southern Karnataka, for the 2017-18 season. Buoyed by the high prevailing prices, farmers are seen bringing in a larger area under the fibre crop and the seed industry expects acreages this year to increase by up to a fifth over the previous year.

As farmers prepare fields for kharif sowing, the government is considering increasing the minimum support price (MSP) of cotton by Rs160 per quintal to Rs4,320 for the 2017-18 crop year beginning July. It is also planning to promote Bt cotton variety developed by the government research body ICAR and expects increased area coverage and better output on hopes of good southwest monsoon that has already hit Kerala in advance.

For the ongoing 2016-17 crop year, MSP of medium staple cotton has been fixed at Rs3,860 per quintal and long staple cotton at Rs4,160. According to sources, the Agriculture Ministry has proposed increase in cotton MSP by Rs160 per quintal for the 2017-18 crop year, based on the recommendation of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP).

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.2% to settled at 3709 while prices down -150 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21026 and below same could see a test of 20953 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21206, a move above could see prices testing 21313.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 20953-21313.

* Cotton prices ended with losses due to reports of higher supplies from major producing belts.

* Sowing of cotton has begun on a strong note in the key growing regions of North India and Southern Karnataka, for the 2017-18 season.

* The government is considering increasing the MSP of cotton by Rs160 per quintal to Rs. 4,320 for the 2017-18 crop year beginning July.

* Cotton prices in spot market dropped by 100.00 rupees and settled at 20480.00 rupees.

 

-www.kediaadvisory.com

 

Views express by all participants are for information & acadamic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before refering below views. Click Here For Disclaimer