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Published on 10/08/2018 11:47:06 AM | Source: Alpha Commodity Pvt Ltd

Aluminium on MCX settled down -1.49% at 142.45 traded in wider range - Alpha Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Alpha Commodity Ltd

Gold

Gold prices seen supported drawing some support from global political tensions and a slightly weaker dollar against the yen. Investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would continue to support the currency. Better-than-expected data on US initial jobless claims and generally rising producer prices also helped the dollar hold its gains. North Korea on Thursday denounced U.S. calls for enforcing international sanctions despite its goodwill moves and said progress on denuclearization promises could not be expected if Washington followed an “outdated acting script”.

Japan’s Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said he had a frank exchange about trade on Thursday with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, while appearing to stick with Tokyo’s position of avoiding a bilateral free-trade agreement. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that a strong economy was helping the labour market weather ongoing trade tensions between the United States and a host of other countries. The U.S. economy is performing “very well” with continued growth clearing the way for one or two more interest rate hikes in 2018, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Thursday in an interview in which he dismissed earlier worries about weak inflation.

US producer prices were unchanged in July for the first time in seven months as a modest increase in the cost of goods was offset by a drop in services, but underlying producer inflation continued to push higher. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.3% to settled at 7949 while prices up 58 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 29590 and below same could see a test of 29513 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29739, a move above could see prices testing 29811.

Silver

Silver on MCX settled up 0.47% at 38127 as softer-than-expected inflation indicators eased concerns over an acceleration of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve ahead of the consumer price index out on Friday. Producer price inflation for July was unchanged from the previous month, with the annualized increase easing from 3.4% to 3.3%, according to data. Still, market participants were likely to remain cautious as they await the release of the more widely followed consumer price index for July. Markets have priced in a rate hike for the Fed’s next meeting in September and the probability of an additional hike in December has been hovering around 70%.

Russia condemned a new round of U.S. sanctions as illegal on Thursday and said it had begun working on retaliatory measures after news of the curbs pushed the rouble to two-year lows over fears Moscow was locked in a spiral of never-ending sanctions. Japan’s economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.9 percent in April-June, bouncing back from a contraction in the previous quarter, government data showed on Friday, in a sign its recovery momentum remained intact. China’s producer price index (PPI), a gauge of factory gate inflation, rose 4.6% in July from a year earlier, compared with an acceleration of 4.7% in June, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.1% in July, compared with a 0.3% growth in June. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.1% from a year earlier in July, faster than June's 1.9% growth. Technically now Silver is getting support at 37940 and below same could see a test of 37754 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38249, a move above could see prices testing 38372.

Crudeoil

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 0.7% at 4602 reflecting concerns about Iranian crude supplies as the U.S. hit Tehran with new sanctions, halting Wednesday's declines. The United States on Tuesday reimposed sanctions on Iran, the third-biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The renewed sanctions will not directly target Iranian oil until November, although U.S. President Donald Trump has said he wants as many countries as possible to cut their imports of Iranian crude to zero.

As part of its most recent retaliation against Washington in the mounting trade dispute, China will impose tariffs of 25 percent on a further $16 billion in U.S. imports, which will affect trade in goods from fuel and steel products to autos and medical equipment. Crude oil will be exempt. The ongoing trade war is rattling global markets and investors fear any slowdown in the world's two largest economies would slash demand for commodities. On top of the impact on the broader global economy, there is growing worry in the crude oil market about Chinese demand.

Crude imports picked up in July after two months of decline, but were still among the lowest this year due to a drop-off in demand from smaller independent refineries. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, meanwhile, reported that crude inventories fell 1.4 million barrels in the latest week, less than half the 3.3 million-barrel draw had expected. In another sign that exporters are preparing for slower demand from some of the big Asian buyers, Iraq cut its official selling price for September cargoes of Basra Light crude for its Asian customers. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at 4567 and below same could see a test of 4532 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4636, a move above could see prices testing 4670.

Natural gas

Natural gas traded in range following the release of a government report showing a weekly storage build that was in line with estimates. Warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States for the next 8-14 days. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities likely added 46 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug. 3, which was the fifth week in a row that injections were smaller than normal. The increase for the week ended Aug. 3 boosted stockpiles to 2.354 trillion cubic feet (tcf), leaving inventories 19.5 percent below the five-year average of 2.926 tcf for this time of year and the lowest for the week since 2003.

Despite recent price gains, overall futures volatility has remained relatively low since February as the market cannot decide whether to fall because production is at record levels or rise because the amount of gas in storage is 20 percent below the five-year (2013-2017) average. Temperatures across much of the country, however, have held steady at above-normal levels since the start of June and are forecast to remain higher than normal through at least late August. Production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged a record high 81.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) over the past 30 days.

On a daily basis, output rose to an all-time high of 81.9 bcfd on Monday, according to data. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.09% to settled at 6285 while prices up 1.1 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 202.2 and below same could see a test of 201.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 204, a move above could see prices testing 204.7.

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.75% at 421.15 gained on short covering as prices moved higher and were set to end the week in positive territory as the prospect of strikes at copper mines in Chile, including Escondida, the world's largest, drew nearer. The main union at Chile's Caserones copper mine said on Wednesday that a last round of labour negotiations with mine operator Lumina Copper had broken down and that a strike was imminent. The main union at Chile’s Caserones copper mine said on Wednesday that a last round of labor negotiations with mine operator Lumina Copper had broken down and that a strike was imminent.

Last night the dollar index jumped 0.54% to 95.61 overnight as investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would continue to support the currency. Better-than-expected data on US initial jobless claims and generally rising producer prices also helped the dollar hold its gains. LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday. Data from China shown China’s PPI, a gauge of factory gate inflation, rose 4.6% in July from a year earlier, compared with an acceleration of 4.7% in June, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday.

On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.1% in July, compared with a 0.3% growth in June. The CPI rose 2.1% from a year earlier in July, faster than June's 1.9% growth. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in July after it edged down 0.1% in June. Now technically market is under short covering and getting support at 418.1 and below same could see a test of 415 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 426.1, a move above could see prices testing 431.

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled down -0.85% at 952.10 while prices gained in morning session after the dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies as its recent rally fuelled by U.S.-China trade tensions appeared to fizzle. A fundamental tightness in the nickel market could also add more support to nickel prices. As the Philippines government confirmed that just 23 out of the 27 mines that operate in the world’s second-largest nickel-producing country will continue to operate. The remaining four will likely close. Also Stainless steel price momentum slowed down slightly this month. However, both steel and nickel remain in a bull market.

Therefore, buying organizations may want to follow the market closely for opportunities to buy on the dips. Last night the dollar index jumped 0.54% to 95.61 overnight as investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would continue to support the currency. Better-than-expected data on US initial jobless claims and generally rising producer prices also helped the dollar hold its gains. LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday.

Day ahead key things to watch today include China’s total social financing and M2 money supply in July, US consumer inflation in July and Baker Hughes data on US weekly oil-rig count. Now technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.69% to settled at 7401 while prices down -8.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 945.1 and below same could see a test of 938.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 964.2, a move above could see prices testing 976.4.

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled down -0.61% at 179.85 on fresh selling while prices gained sharply in morning session tracking LME Zinc which gained to test $2,614.50 as China's stock markets and yuan gained on Thursday, helping to lift industrial metals, even after China the day before said it was slapping additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of U.S. imports, the latest step in a worsening trade dispute. China is the world's biggest metals consumer. While upside was capped as China's factory price inflation cooled in July amid a slowdown in economic growth.

Economists expect punitive tariffs on U.S goods to push price growth higher in months ahead. Weakness in the dollar index is helping boost metals prices already yesterday morning. The greenback has struggled to garner bids since the Monday August 6 high of 95.53. A technical break below psychological price level at 95.00 could trigger more selling. This bodes well for both the base and precious metals prices as well as commodities currencies to wiggle higher. Ever since the People's Bank of China (PBoC) took steps on Friday August 3 to boost forwards foreign exchange trading requirements to 20%, the Chinese yuan has firmed to 6.8164.

Last night the dollar index jumped 0.54% to 95.61 overnight as investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would continue to support the currency. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.32% to settled at 4391 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 177.9 and below same could see a test of 176 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 183.4, a move above could see prices testing 187.

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled down -1.49% at 142.45 traded in wider range, while prices gained in morning session tracking Shanghai aluminium prices which rose nearly 2.5 percent to a near two-month closing high on Thursday, as a strike affecting Alcoa's alumina refineries in Australia and warnings of shutdowns by Rusal supported prices. The Alcoa plants account for around 9.3 million tonnes of capacity or some 8 percent of the world's supply of alumina. Alcoa said on Thursday it did not expect any impact on its production from the industrial action running until Aug. 17.

All other metals rose on a buoyant day for the complex, with aluminium trading volumes at 437,570 lots, well above the 30-day average of 170,423 lots. Top metals consumer China's factory price inflation cooled in July, amid a slowdown in economic growth, according to official data released on Thursday, although the tit-for-tat import tariffs imposed by China and the United States on each other's goods have yet to stoke price pressures. Last night the dollar index jumped 0.54% to 95.61 overnight as investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would continue to support the currency.

Better-than-expected data on US initial jobless claims and generally rising producer prices also helped the dollar hold its gains. LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday. Day ahead key things to watch today include China’s total social financing and M2 money supply in July, US consumer inflation in July and Baker Hughes data on US weekly oil-rig count. Now technically now Aluminium is getting support at 140.8 and below same could see a test of 139.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 145.5, a move above could see prices testing 148.6.

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